Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Backtrack]

Right this is annoying me, can someone please define 'The north' and 'The south' ?

Where's the boundary?! People say the NW in which they mean N.Ireland and NW Scotland. I live in NW England, but whilst that's not southern England, it's central/southern UK if you look at a map.

 

It confuses the hell out of me, can someone please clear this up for the benefit of me, and also many other people too!

[Frosty.]

 

 

prefer that myself... heat... thundery breakdown... cooler fresher.. building heat again... constant heat would be boring! lol..

We should be grateful for what the models and the current weather are delivering now, they are light years better than the washout summer last year and for the southern half of the uk or at least the southern third, it's a settled hot spell again from friday until well into next week, maybe all next week, it's not boring at all, it's fantastic.

Edited July 10, 2013 by Frosty039

[nitro_deluxe]

Right this is annoying me, can someone please define 'The north' and 'The south' ?Where's the boundary?! People say the NW in which they mean N.Ireland and NW Scotland. I live in NW England, but whilst that's not southern England, it's central/southern UK if you look at a map. It confuses the hell out of me, can someone please clear this up for the benefit of me, and also many other people too!

You're effectively in more central kinda NW territory - as for define or draw a boundary line, the weather isn't going to take a blind bit of notice. Trust me

[Scorcher]

If you care to look at the 850mb chart it shows a lot cooler temps and lower pressure, this again is misleading to newbies. Next week wont be as warm as this week..  

 

Maybe you could also clear up what 'a lot cooler' means for the newbies as I think this is misleading too- if I read that and hadn't looked at the charts I'd be thinking high teens as opposed to the mid 20s for many next week.

[Backtrack]

You're effectively in more central kinda NW territory - as for define or draw a boundary line, the weather isn't going to take a blind bit of notice. Trust me

 

I've just always wondered what people mean when they say 'The south' do they mean southern England or southern UK, southern UK would effectively include most of England & Wales, where as southern England is obviously just the southern fifth of the UK!

[cheese]

Right this is annoying me, can someone please define 'The north' and 'The south' ?

Where's the boundary?! People say the NW in which they mean N.Ireland and NW Scotland. I live in NW England, but whilst that's not southern England, it's central/southern UK if you look at a map.

 

It confuses the hell out of me, can someone please clear this up for the benefit of me, and also many other people too!

This is a big source of confusion as I'm not sure which side of the boundary I am located - of course I can easily look at the charts and come to a conclusion myself, but terms like 'North', 'South', 'NW' and 'SE' are ambiguous and not well-defined, especially when talking a UK-wide context, not just an England context. I presume by 'south', people mean virtually all of England and Wales, and by N, they mean Scotland, N Ireland and perhaps the far north of England, as looking at the temperature projection charts from GFS, most of England looks warm, very warm and occasionally hot.

Edited July 10, 2013 by cheese

[ANYWEATHER]

Maybe you could also clear up what 'a lot cooler' means for the newbies as I think this is misleading too- if I read that and hadn't looked at the charts I'd be thinking high teens as opposed to the mid 20s for many next week.

Cooler means= 70sf rather than 80sf!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes,as expected the backtrack is almost complete with the gfs and its ensembles looking bone dry down south as far as they eye can see and the ecm pretty much closing the door on the Atlantic.

It does amuse me when posters go missing at these kind of junctures esp when i look back a few days on this thread

[mushymanrob]

Right this is annoying me, can someone please define 'The north' and 'The south' ?

Where's the boundary?! People say the NW in which they mean N.Ireland and NW Scotland. I live in NW England, but whilst that's not southern England, it's central/southern UK if you look at a map.

 

It confuses the hell out of me, can someone please clear this up for the benefit of me, and also many other people too!

 

theres no set boundary... the north is the north and the south is the south and everywhere else is somewhere in between...

 

being somewhere in between, i get abit of both, as the boundary between 'cool in the north, nice in the south, ' varies. tbh i think its impossible to tie down boundaries in black and white when most of us are in shades of grey. you have to use local knowlege i suppose to determine whether under any given synoptic set ups you are more likely to get 'north' weather or 'south'...

[Methuselah]

Right this is annoying me, can someone please define 'The north' and 'The south' ?

Where's the boundary?! People say the NW in which they mean N.Ireland and NW Scotland. I live in NW England, but whilst that's not southern England, it's central/southern UK if you look at a map.

 

It confuses the hell out of me, can someone please clear this up for the benefit of me, and also many other people too!

I usually find that both are where the snow isn't: when it snows in the 'north', wherever I am gets bugger all; when it snows in the 'south', wherever I am gets bugger all...Always works! 

Edited July 10, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Milhouse]

The ECM 12z mean is quite a turnaround from this mornings one. The ECM 12z op, although a fine run, actually brings low pressure closer to the UK in FI than the mean has. It also means that both the GEFS and ECM means now indicate a reasonable pressure rise from the middle of next week.

[Man With Beard]

If you care to look at the 850mb chart it shows a lot cooler temps and lower pressure, this again is misleading to newbies. Next week wont be as warm as this week..

Depends where you live I think. Southern counties keep 10C-14C 850s throughout. Probably meaning 25C-30C on the ground. That's a heatwave, surely? In fact I think tonight's charts are very significant, suggesting no let up at all south of say Lancashire/Yorkshire for at least 10 days - to get such extended warm/hot/sunny weather in July (away from the far SE) in the UK is fairly rare. Could be looking at one of the top 10 July CETs of all time if this keeps up a couple more weeks.

[Milhouse]

If you care to look at the 850mb chart it shows a lot cooler temps and lower pressure, this again is misleading to newbies. Next week wont be as warm as this week..  

 

But the threat of low cloud off the North Sea doesnt look to be a feature with winds coming from a warmer W/SW direction. Todays temperatures over Yorkshire and the East Midlands were hardly indicative of the present upper 850 temperatures due to the cloud spilling from the north and a cool wind off the sea. A wind from the Atlantic will not be as cool.

 

This will have the effect of switching the warmest temperatures to the south and east of the UK, with the west seeing lower values but still higher than the mid teens that the east coast saw today.

[Milhouse]

Depends where you live I think. Southern counties keep 10C-14C 850s throughout. Probably meaning 25C-30C on the ground. That's a heatwave, surely? In fact I think tonight's charts are very significant, suggesting no let up at all south of say Lancashire/Yorkshire for at least 10 days - to get such extended warm/hot/sunny weather in July (away from the far SE) in the UK is fairly rare. Could be looking at one of the top 10 July CETs of all time if this keeps up a couple more weeks.

 

The ECM op has a look of late June/early July 2010 about it. Which, if you dont think the current spell is, was the best summer spell since 2006. So plenty of fine and very warm conditions to come going by tonights models with a more traditional NW/SE split emerging.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM mean looks fine and dandy this evening.

I hope for a continuation of this tomorrow with the azores high dominating our weather through next week after a short blip for the far north sun/mon.

[damianslaw]

Lots of fine weather ahead for all with the heat building over central southern england by Friday and into the weekend with a very strong chance of 30 degrees being breached - quite possibly 31 degrees.

 

Scotland is likely to turn less settled as we see a cold front invading from the NW, so much cloudier here by the weekend with the chance of showery outbreaks as far south as northern england but temperatures still into the low 20's, mid 20's in northern england after a very warm Friday.

 

Into next week, the models suggest any forcing from the NW will be relatively weak enabling a strong rebuild of heights from the SW, but whether these develop in the same way as the current heights have remains to be seen.

 

Looking at the outlook, this looks likely to be the best spell of summer weather since the infamous July 2006. Its very welcomed after some preety dire summer weather in recent years, and reminds me of many of the good summer spells we enjoyed 1989-2006.

[Downpour]

Yes,as expected the backtrack is almost complete with the gfs and its ensembles looking bone dry down south as far as they eye can see and the ecm pretty much closing the door on the Atlantic.

It does amuse me when posters go missing at these kind of junctures esp when i look back a few days on this thread

Indeed. The Azores High is the form horse and the so-called breakdown is a very dry squib

[Robbie Garrett]

Quite an interesting pattern developing come months end.  High pressure looking to re-establish itself across the UK, the North Atlantic looks firmly blocked up towards Greenland.

 

It's quite far out and not 100% accurate yet but it shows signs of lowering heights across eastern and the middle parts of Europe, as high pressure firms it's way towards Greenland and then shifts towards the UK as the Atlantic hit's it.  Notice Europe where the lower pressure is, lower temperatures. Higher temperatures slightly across the UK (NOT 100% accurate)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then as we head further towards August, High pressure builds and asserts itself across the UK and western Europe.  Some very hot temperatures out of that, especially considering the next few weeks could be warm-very warm across most parts.  Interestingly it's 10 years since we last had a GOOD hot summer, 2003 anyone??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NeilN]

Ironic considering we've had six below average months, with the coldest spring in 51 years that our summer looks to be potentially the warmest in ten years! 2013 has broke the curse.

[J10]

The ECM op has a look of late June/early July 2010 about it. Which, if you dont think the current spell is, was the best summer spell since 2006. So plenty of fine and very warm conditions to come going by tonights models with a more traditional NW/SE split emerging.

 

That warm spell was very regionalised, and while those areas did very well, others did much worse.

 

As for next week, a north south split looks on the cards. If the ECM is right then more of a NW SE split is on the cards, so one of the reasons from an IMBY point of view, I don't love it

While GFS looks pretty good for all southern areas, including SW areas as we tend to do well out of NW winds and into FI for most of the UK. If we can getter further sunshine into next week, with slightly lower temps I would take that.

 

In any case the current charts are a bit better than indicated a day or so ago so shouldn't complain.

 

 

The NOAA charts show High Pressure rebuilding close to the UK, but never as dominant as the current spell or even what the GFS suggests into FI.

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

I put it at about 70% that high pressure will continue to dominate the next 14 days .. The 12Z GFS looks good, and the 18Z taking shape pretty well, but the ECM brings the polar front perilously close at times -

 

cheers, sam

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble is looking good this evening with the Azores never really leaving the far south west before we have a renewed push next week

 

[Wilxy]

GFS 18z is a good upgrade in heat next week with a better angle of high pressure building

[Geordiesnow]

Its interesting to note the models are strengthing the Azores ridge for the weekend, especially for Sunday, so much so that even Scotland could join in the sunshine and respectable temperatures whilst the hotter temps further South could be exteneded further Northwards than earlier predictions. Still time for minor changes which may upgrade this or conversely downgrade it so one too keep an eye on. 

 

Saturday may still be cloudy across Scotland/Northern Ireland and perhaps Northern England as the cold front edges southwards but the potential for thunderstorms is certainly there for Saturday. Hopefully with the heat and humidity coupled with a cold front, it could trigger some beefy thunderstorms across some parts of Eastern England in particular, be interesting how this develops. 

[Summer Sun]

Every chance of someone in the south hitting 32c this weekend

 

 

Somewhere around Bournemouth looks the hot spot on Sunday I wouldn't rule out another 32c somewhere in this area

 

 

Into next week and the heat continues

 

 

Edited July 10, 2013 by Summer Sun