South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 16th July 2013 onwards

[AWD]

Rather cloudy with a freshining breeze here, although when the sun does make an appearance, it feels very warm.

Looking forward to the start of next week. Haven't had the potential like we have next week for storms for this part of the world for a long while now.

Lets hope it doesn't go boobs up over the weekend.

[SteveB]

Rather cloudy with a freshining breeze here, although when the sun does make an appearance, it feels very warm.Looking forward to the start of next week. Haven't had the potential like we have next week for storms for this part of the world for a long while now.Lets hope it doesn't go boobs up over the weekend.

 

I'm not get to excited yet, been here many times before.

 

But funny thing is, the last time I can say we had a proper proper thunder storm was 2006, same as the last time we had weather like this.

[Bristawl Si]

What a disappointment today. Was all this cloud forecast?

Absolutely stunning day yday when we went to Weston for the day.

Nice cod & chips, plus a couple of thatchers on the terrace at Smiths hotel on the front. Then the wife and I grabbed a couple of hours on the beach before getting the fast train back to Stoke Gifford.

C'mon Sun you know you want to come back out!

[jessandjon]

Are we still going to get storms in Cornwall?

[AWD]

IMBY, these storm charts are just mouthwatering currently. I'm literally crapping myself everytime a model run is ran, praying they don't downgrade or disappear. So far so good, Bristol right in the mix;

Please please please don't change. We are soooo close to some of the best thundery activity in recent years IMBY.

[Nights King]

I really hope we see our first real thunderstorm (more than 2 claps of thunder) in what must be close to a decade now.  

[AWD]

I really hope we see our first real thunderstorm (more than 2 claps of thunder) in what must be close to a decade now.

See the 3/5 day Met Office forecast for SW England mate. In terms of thunderstorms, we haven't had one that bullish in years! Edited July 20, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Referring to the final sentence in my post from earlier in the MOD thread.

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77295-model-output-discussion-00z-190713/?p=2742074

 

I did mean to say the main breakdown could arrive rather unexpectedly overnight from the South, instead of will.

 

However, I feel the first chance of an MCS is tonight for parts of the far SW.

 

 

Whatever happens, there is a long week of radar and satellite watching ahead of us.

Edited July 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Latest from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Cloudy start for many tomorrow but turning mostly sunny PM & v warm; 25-28C. Showers/t-storms for some areas into early hrs Mon."

[Argyle1980]

Well what a beautiful couple of weeks we have had.

It has been a long time in waiting for weather like this and I do hope (wish) we have a return to settled weather soon but only after we get some lovely thunder storms..... This year is shaping up well.

Loads of fishing done also.... Not waisted one minute of this fantastic sunshine .

Radar at the ready!

Take care all x

[AWD]

From Ian Fergusson;

"Could be a lively morning in W Country on Monday if axis of thundery plume remains more to W (as currently indicated by EC DET & MOGREPS)..."

"However, given some model mismatches down south in source region for Monday's developments, it's no done deal regarding regional outcomes."

[fergieweather]

Modified 18z NAE frames early Monday offer hint of current thinking re axis of 20C WBPT plume as it destabilizes... but this subject to error E-W. EURO4 has localised PWAT of 30-40+mm. Cheers, Ian

[AWD]

Thanks for that Ian.

Any brief insight with regards to possible MCS developments during Tuesday?

12z GFS keen, other models not so much so.

Edited July 20, 2013 by AWD

[fergieweather]

Thanks for that Ian.

Any brief insight with regards to possible MCS developments during Tuesday?

12z GFS keen, other models not so much so.

image.jpg

Too early to be deterministic re mesoscale developments and extent of any storm organisation... models will struggle with that level of detail right to the wire. But more consensual agreement on storms becoming more widespread spreading NE Tues-Weds, with profiles for SW/W Country indicative of more isolated airmass storms by Thurs.

[MP-R]

Fingers crossed it stays dry Tuesday evening - I just can't have any thunderstorms until 10pm on Tuesday!!

Edited July 20, 2013 by Miguel Hugo Roberto

[Costa Del Fal]

SUNDAY: Sunny and Very Warm or Hot. Risk of thunderstorms early and late. Max 21-29c.

 

Cornwall's Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...wall/4573724902

Channel Islands Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...ands/4573977985

 

 

180 Followers @kernowweather including Edward Sault & BBC Channel Islands!

[Mark -W-s-M]

Something is certainly brewing .

[Tim]

Fingers crossed it stays dry Tuesday evening - I just can't have any thunderstorms until 10pm on Tuesday!!

 

Completely agree, that's when I finish work lol! no storms are allowed until then!

[Mark Parsons]

Showers moving in to the sw of Cornwall and the I.O.S as we speak, not expecting them to move to far during the day, I feel it is gonna be a bit of a hit or miss event for many but those who get a storm may have a nice surprise whilst others are going to be very disappointed......... 

[legritter]

It certainly looks like a hard one to call as regards any storms coming up .the synoptic situation as general is spot on for action but details at this range will always be hard .radar watching and sattelite viewing going to give some of us an interesting time but i think some winners and as usual some loosers .lets hope some of us can get a good shot ,as its been quite a while since we had overnight storms that light up the room and thunder that sends soot down the chimney .things should become clearer tomorrow when the sun kicks in on this air mass .but certainly a couple of muggy days to come ,just saw my first wasp of season now they scare me but not lightning bolts .nice to see Ian Furgusson Posts on this upcoming interesting spell of weather .

[Nights King]

Latest bbc graphics don't look as promising for the west country with activity more towards the central eastern areas of country? 

[AWD]

Latest bbc graphics don't look as promising for the west country with activity more towards the central eastern areas of country?

The BBC graphics are about as much use as a flat tyre in these situations. Model output changes, things develop differently, BBC graphics change. Edited July 21, 2013 by AWD

[Nights King]

The BBC graphics are about as much use as a flat tyre in these situations.

   I know you shouldn't rely on those graphics totally but they are still a educated guess of areas?

 

Just feel slightly nervous with anticipation of seeing a storm just like chasing snow in winter.

[AWD]

I know you shouldn't rely on those graphics totally but they are still a educated guess of areas?

Just feel slightly nervous with anticipation of seeing a storm just like chasing snow in winter.

Pop over to the convective thread mate, much more info over there with a good insight into possible proceedings.

Bit of a mix for us a minute. Some models are keen for us to be a part of the fun, others want the main action further north and east.

The radar will be the best tool come late Monday though.

[AWD]

Evil things are back again;