Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[BA Baracus]

OOh I'm under the blue bit in SW Ireland.....

The convection over north Wales ties in with the convergence zone that is apparent on XC weather where the winds are coming in from the east, south and west.  This area isn't really in the Met Office warnings - could this area spawn some showers or storms today?

[Costa Del Fal]

I think Paul mentioned Warwickshire which is the East Midlands

Erm, no it isn't!!! It's Most defo West Midlands region.Still far too much hazy high cloud muck here. Not confident at all right now.

[Paul Sherman]

really? I would of thought more eastern areas as the meto warning only just covers the further SW areas of midlands? obviously you know alot more than me

 

Eh

 

When did they move Warwickshire then ?? Thought Warwickshire was South of Brum and North of Oxford.

 

Would obviously want to be in the eastern part south of Coventry probably though to be Upwind of any initiation

Edited July 22, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[joggs]

Well if we do get hit in northern England its just rewards for an overcast wkend and at present lol.

[Staffordshire]

EhWhen did they move Warwickshire then ?? Thought Warwickshire was South of Brum and North of Oxford.

id class leicester eastwards as east mids, south of brum is wmids id say?

[MrNooo]

Cu readily building here in the last 20 mins

[Paul Sherman]

Yh but If I was expecting Initiation over the Chilterns or Cotswolds surely the Eastern Part of Warwickshire is pretty damn well placed for North and North East moving Storms ?

[WillinGlossop]

It's actually quite chilly here today.  Currently 13C and foggy with occasional drizzle.  Feel more autumnal that the hottest day of the year! Just a few miles away over the pennines Manchester airport is on 25C - amazing how this bank of cloud is affecting the temperatures. I have high hopes for storms this week.  It seems like years since we had a good storm!

28c in glossop..... Getting pretty humid, hazy sunshine.... Just mowed the lawn and chopped up wood for two hours..... Time for cold shower me thinks..... Hope we get some thunderstorms today/tonight/tomorrow!

[matt_in_dudley]

Erm, no it isn't!!! It's Most defo West Midlands region.Still far too much hazy high cloud muck here. Not confident at all right now.

I agree with you there, the sun is coming through but not nearly quick enough. I will be surprised if we get anything today. Meto are just covering all bases. Edited July 22, 2013 by Matt_in_Walsall

[ChezWeather]

going to be hell for the next 36 hours or so

Come and swap places with me down here in Cornwall! 

[Harve]

28c in glossop..... Getting pretty humid, hazy sunshine.... Just mowed the lawn and chopped up wood for two hours..... Time for cold shower me thinks..... Hope we get some thunderstorms today/tonight/tomorrow!

28c in Glossop, really?! It feels a good 8-10 degrees cooler here with no sunshine at all...

[gpspete]

just looking at latest satellite visible data there is some quite high topped small cells forming just north of Gloucester 

[Paul Sherman]

Lol Think I better stick with Merica, me Geography of the Uk is pretty pants by the sounds of things.

 

Good luck anyway guys

[Staffordshire]

Yh but If I was expecting Initiation over the Chilterns or Cotswolds surely the Eastern Part of Warwickshire is pretty damn well placed for North and North East moving Storms ?

im not arguing with your forecast at all, i trust it. i just thought (by other forecasts) it would be a bit further east so i was aaking why you didnt think this

[Coast]

I think the rain could be a feature that will worry a few overnight:

 

 

[egret]

Some widespread stormy activity being shown by the latest UKMO radar projections for early Tuesday morning;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Bingo! (ok a bit IMBY there)

[SnowJoke]

30.6'c, Dp is 19'c & 53% rising humidity in the centre of MK 200 yrds from the Library in the shade. Sky was covered in CirroStratus first thing this morning, now burnt off completely bar an odd small patch & the odd small AcCas cloud popping up here and there,

[Harry]

I think the rain could be a feature that will worry a few overnight:

 

 

What are your thoughts for our chances tonight Coast?

[BA Baracus]

30.6'c, Dp is 19'c & 53% rising humidity in the centre of MK 200 yrds from the Library in the shade. Sky was covered in CirroStratus first thing this morning, now burnt off completely bar an odd small patch & the odd small AcCas cloud popping up here and there,

 

Well we are now up to a scorching 16C with a DP of 15C.  Still misty but is getting a bit brighter.

[Snow free zone]

Now lost the sun here in the south lakes. Plenty of high cloud coming up from the S/SW.

[pad199207]

Up at 27c here this afternoon! DP nearing 20c now and pretty much cloudy with some cumulus visible, but i dont think anything interesting will fire off here

[Phantom2]

just hit 31c here and the humidity is getting unbearable, time to crack a cold beer I think

[Glocken73_2013]

From what i've been reading from some people i seem to be pretty much in a prime location. Didn't look like it earlier with all this cloud but its definitely starting to warm up now.

[Suburban Streamer]

What are your thoughts for our chances tonight Coast?

Impossible to predict but I'll be glued to the radar that's for sure

[Paul Sherman]

im not arguing with your forecast at all, i trust it. i just thought (by other forecasts) it would be a bit further east so i was aaking why you didnt think this

 

No Worries

 

As I posted earlier the CZ Is roughly a little bit further North than where I sited it earlier, the far North Western Part is actually into Wales atm for example. I am liking the area near Gloucester and the Cotswolds and more especially near Fairford, Converging winds from 3 angles here currently and with some Orographic Ascent as well as a Visible agitated nature on the Satelite Picture have a hunch that something could fire in a line from the Northern Part of the Cotswolds across towards the Chilterns just South of Oxford.

 

As in chasing in the States you would want to be North of Initiation with this wind vector to get an angle on which cell to Attack so Warwickshire looks perfectly placed, being South of a Built Up City and with good road option.