Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[Suburban Streamer]

is there not a small convergance zone just west of london as the easterly winds meet the southerlies?

[Coast]

just got back from the Cotswold water park, next door to Fairford......Cu field starting to develop around 1:30pm disapating as I passed Swindon on the way home.....Here at Lyneham (approx 20 miles SW of Fairford) a few 'cotton wool' Cu but also lanes of Ac Cas encroaching from the south....

 

Forecast Cu for18.00hrs gives a hint at where things might get going:

 

[gpspete]

The island to the west of Italy has just blown up in storms. Wow. Can't wait for the storms to hit here.! I hope they hold off til after 10pm seeing as I have work until then!

http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/?bo_page=archive&bo_map=sat_europe_mpe&bo_animation=now〈=en

[A.J]

Forecast Cu for18.00hrs gives a hint at where things might get going:

 

yep Robin, at the moment I'd say the southern boundary of the Cu field is here (Lyneham, 5 miles south of the M4) and the wind convergence area looks to move furhter north as we go into the evening, so that chart and The Sherminator's summary look bang on!

 

just to add , i feel I'm literally a handful of miles too far south to catch a home grown (I breed 'em, warickshire gets 'em...lol) but for here tonights possible elevated imports and into tomorrow hold my interest

Edited July 22, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Gordon Webb]

I thought if I learned more about storms it'd help with my fear, but strangely it actually made it worse. I am getting a little better as I get older, but in my twenties I suffered from it dreadfully and have even been known to hide in cupboards!

 

I do that now hide in cupboards with a mobile phone playing youtube music videos and check the radar every 15 minutes to get an idea of track and speed , worked quite well last year when we had those storms over the Olympic weekend

[Tamara]

I thought if I learned more about storms it'd help with my fear, but strangely it actually made it worse. I am getting a little better as I get older, but in my twenties I suffered from it dreadfully and have even been known to hide in cupboards!

I used to really like storms and would be on here posting in anticipation of them arriving. Two dreadful experiences with them (especially the first one) started off my fear of them. Plus imo gaining knowledge of them and when they are most likely for my own area has done me no favours at all. That saying that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing has some truth to it

Edited July 22, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Lynxus]

Well, Its now 30.1 Â°C

with humidity at 35%

 

Its starting to get really warm and "close" strong sunshine with a few small CU around.

[thunderhead 2005]

Not seeing much atm, are there any CIN values around?

[gpspete]

i upload data from my Nextstorm software to this site that then correlates it with several others to produce this webpage

plenty of zoom options and can show last 24hr

 

 http://www.strikestareu.com/sslt/sslt.html

 

worth a look  shows the lightning over South Dorset last night quite well

Edited July 22, 2013 by gpspete

[Cloud 10]

Things should start kicking off somewhere shortly if the gfs 06z is correct. 

 

Rmgfs093.gif

 

 

It would appear the gfs was overly enthusiastic. 

 

[Supacell]

Take a look near Caen. A shower has gone from nothing to a full blown thunderstorm dropping lots of strikes in 15 minutes! Signs of whats to come.

[thunderhead 2005]

Take a look near Caen. A shower has gone from nothing to a full blown thunderstorm dropping lots of strikes in 15 minutes! Signs of whats to come.

Yeah just saw that where is it heading NE i presume?

[scotto]

29.7C with a dew point of 21C and humidity at 60%. Feeling hot outside, but not bad inside. Looking forward to some brilliant storms!!!

[chionomaniac]

First signs of increasing mid level instability here in East Grinstead with a slowly developing Altocumulus Castellanus field

[Gordon Webb]

I used to really like storms and would be on here posting in anticipation of them arriving. Two dreadful experiences with them (especially the first one) started off my fear of them. Plus imo gaining knowledge of them and when they are most likely for my own area has done me no favours at all. That saying that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing has some truth to it

 

Yeah I did a similar thing a few years back decided to learn more about them wish I hadn't as a little ignorance can be bliss

[Supacell]

Yeah just saw that where is it heading NE i presume?

 

It looks to be heading NNE if it follows the upper steering winds. If it survives it would be on track to hit somewhere between IOW and Brighton much later on.

[Damone]

I used to really like storms and would be on here posting in anticipation of them arriving. Two dreadful experiences with them (especially the first one) started off my fear of them. Plus imo gaining knowledge of them and when they are most likely for my own area has done me no favours at all. That saying that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing has some truth to it

Sounds similar to what happened to me. I used to love storms and every time they happened (they're thankfully fairly rare in this part of the UK) was an exciting surprise. In 2001 we had a nasty rash of them, and one woke me up in the middle of the night. Now I know what 'gunshot thunder' means! Loudest thing I've ever heard in my life, and I instantly developed a terror of them. It's such a shame, because it's prevented me from enjoying summertime, and I avoid going anywhere that might be storm-prone.

 

I've heard it's one of the tougher phobias to get rid of, and I can believe it!

[sparky1972]

29.7C with a dew point of 21C and humidity at 60%. Feeling hot outside, but not bad inside. Looking forward to some brilliant storms!!!

do you think we are going to get lucky around these parts and cop a good storm

[thunderhead 2005]

It looks to be heading NNE if it follows the upper steering winds. If it survives it would be on track to hit somewhere between IOW and Brighton much later on.

That would be on tee with Estofex prediction, possible MCS "IF" it survives the channel, but then could head NE like always

[Tamara]

Yeah I did a similar thing a few years back decided to learn more about them wish I hadn't as a little ignorance can be bliss

The mechanisms that trigger them are fascinating and the cloudscapes as well I still love to see. The proviso is that they are at a distance and not coming this way!!

 

Initiation of storms is well under way across the channel and Eastern parts of France into the Benelux are lighting up like a Christmas tree

 

http://meteox.com/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop-bliksem&c=&n=&tijdid=20137221618

[scotto]

I really do hope so, but Lincolnshire as a whole always tends to do well with thunderstorms.

[Supacell]

Less haze now and more sunshine is pushing the temperature up further, currently 26c/17c and so the met office prediction of 29c may be reached. Getting a "thunder headache" too. I just have a feeling today/tonight is going to deliver

[cheese]

I really do hope so, but Lincolnshire as a whole always tends to do well with thunderstorms.

Grantham seems to have done well in particular!

[DAVID SNOW]

  CZ to the south of London? XCWeather.

[cheese]

NAE 12z accumulation charts show some very heavy rain across the spine of England i.e West, South, North Yorkshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire etc, but it's changing a lot from run to run.