Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[Kain]

Finally that grey stuff has shifted to leave hazy blue skies..

 

Bring it on..

 

(Hope I don't have to bring the anti east army out again >.<)

Edited July 22, 2013 by Kain

[scotto]

We had a storm maybe last Saturday, but it was pretty rubbish, with a few rumbles, no lightning and rain. Would have preferred to have stayed hot and sunny, like everywhere else in the country was that day.

[chionomaniac]

Those AS CS clouds have now totally evaporated - it shows that there are pockets of increasing instability in what is a stable but slowly destabilising moist airmass. Worth watching anywhere in the bulk of the country because sometimes convergence zones can be wrongly forecast.

 Can anyone possible supply a link to the latest satellite pic please because I don't have a link on this computer. Thanks

[Mesoscale]

What type of storms tend to be the most violent? surface based or elevated? I just don't really know the difference between them.With the plumes in the 90's I always remember how loud the thunder was 'wardrobe shakers' we called them, hopefully we all get some of them bar the people who don't want them  

[Static Prevails]

NAE 12z accumulation charts show some very heavy rain across the spine of England i.e West, South, North Yorkshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire etc, but it's changing a lot from run to run.

 

That looks fantastic for here, but we'll have to wait and see...

[Coast]

 Can anyone possible supply a link to the latest satellite pic please because I don't have a link on this computer. Thanks

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html

 

 

Nottingham 12z sounding looks about on the money:

 

[Eye to the sky]

Jay Wynee has just been on BBC news didn't even mention Thunderstorms for the next 24 hours.Instead he mentioned thundery showers moving NE through the early hours and clearing in to the North Sea.They will be then be replaced by heavy thundery rain moving up from the south with the risk of local flooding through tomorrow.So not as enthusiastic as I was earlier today,but hey who knows!!.

[galacticwarrior]

Very humid and warm - small clouds starting to drift in. Feels like it's going to explode with thunderstorms at the moment.

[sparky1972]

We had a storm maybe last Saturday, but it was pretty rubbish, with a few rumbles, no lightning and rain. Would have preferred to have stayed hot and sunny, like everywhere else in the country was that day.

we also got a glancing blow from that storm, crowland area got the best of that one i think

[Costa Del Fal]

Where is this bang I was promised?  

 

29c now though.

 

In all seriousness its much quieter than I expected. Might have to just rely on tonight here. 

Edited July 22, 2013 by Blizzards

[Gordon Webb]

just got this from the met office for the west midlands

 

West Midlands Headline:

Feeling hot and humid with an increasing risk of thunderstorms.

This Evening and Tonight:

Any isolated thunderstorms should die out during the evening, with most places having a dry end to the day with some sunshine. Continuing mainly dry overnight and feeling very warm and humid. Risk of further isolated thunderstorms towards dawn. Minimum Temperature 17 Â°C.

Tuesday:

Heavy, thundery downpours spreading from the south through the morning and persisting across many places areas into the afternoon. Only limited sunny spells, but feeling very warm and humid. Maximum Temperature 25 Â°C.

Updated: 1522 on Mon 22 Jul 2013

[Eskimo]

First signs of increasing mid level instability here in East Grinstead with a slowly developing Altocumulus Castellanus field

Can vouch for that, clouds starting to bubble.

[Supacell]

Jay Wynee has just been on BBC news didn't even mention Thunderstorms for the next 24 hours.Instead he mentioned thundery showers moving NE through the early hours and clearing in to the North Sea.They will be then be replaced by heavy thundery rain moving up from the south with the risk of local flooding through tomorrow.So not as enthusiastic as I was earlier today,but hey who knows!!.

 

Depends on the forecaster. Jay Wynne often plays down potential whereas Tomasz Shaffernaker plays it up.

 

Looking at northern France as an idea of whats to come I can see things going bang big style.

[pad199207]

Plenty of convective cloud here atm and seems to organizing into a line just to my north. But nada being set off!

 

26.6c/19.4c

[BB1979]

Centre of London is oppresive right now. Like walking into a hairdryer. Yes its been hot for past week or so but today is another level altogether as far as humidity is concerned. It needs to go *pop* and soon ...

[syed2878]

i know how u fiel gordon up untill last year i uce to love t-storms i don't mind the thundery showers but not the kind of storms they talking about on here. So i hope we mis most of it.

[Staffordshire]

As gordon webb just posted, dying out in the evening... well they want to hurry up and start as they will be dead before they are born

[chionomaniac]

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html

 

 

Nottingham 12z sounding looks about on the money:

 

 

Thanks Robin. It is a pity that there is not something out there that is a little bit more zoomed in!

[BA Baracus]

Is that thin line of rain that is approaching Truro going to expand into anything?  Could this be the instability that kick starts some storms later this evening?

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Folks. Thunderstorms are notoriously difficult to predict ,just like snow in winter! If your feeling disappointed now ,you may well feel elated later.!!!  

[Gordon Webb]

Centre of London is oppresive right now. Like walking into a hairdryer. Yes its been hot for past week or so but today is another level altogether as far as humidity is concerned. It needs to go *pop* and soon ...

 

are you on about the weather or Kate Middleton's Baby ?

[Eye to the sky]

Depends on the forecaster. Jay Wynne often plays down potential whereas Tomasz Shaffernaker plays it up.Looking at northern France as an idea of whats to come I can see things going bang big style.

Are you going chasing Supacell,was thinking of going up to Alport Heights masts above Ambergate to get a decent view should anything develop later.

[DAVID SNOW]

Jay Wynee has just been on BBC news didn't even mention Thunderstorms for the next 24 hours.Instead he mentioned thundery showers moving NE through the early hours and clearing in to the North Sea.They will be then be replaced by heavy thundery rain moving up from the south with the risk of local flooding through tomorrow.So not as enthusiastic as I was earlier today,but hey who knows!!.

 

 He is not a storm fan though, unlike the south wests very own Fergie.

[Cliffyboy1962]

France awash with thunderstorms and the UK has none. A strange sense of Deja Vu has come over me.

[Methuselah]

Anyone else starting think 'damp squib'?