Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[weatherobsuk]

More home-grown stuff for later on today, but less organised and more potent wherever they eventually show up. Fun and games for some whilst down the road it could still be dry, humid, and just the murk to enjoy.

Edited July 23, 2013 by SNOW_JOKE

[Weather-history]

Cumulus clouds are definitely developing here. Not sure how far the development is going to go but at the mediocris stage.

[Glocken73_2013]

Still really humid here but almost 100% cloud cover so not much warming up can't see anything else developing now over here tbh

[P-M]

Certainly the end for a good while now some more thunderstorms may pop us this evening but the radar is looking quite now with nothing brewing in the west or south

 

 

Meto at 11am are still bullish about wide spread storms breaking out up here though?  The air is tropical out there, the atmosphere is unstable and as we know they could pop up out of no where - I still think somewhere in England will see something this afternoon - not guaranteed but with the current conditions its positive.

[poseidon]

The main line is about to swing across me shortly I think, but looks to have weakened substantially and the electrical activity has stopped.

Pretty spectacular driving to work in torrential rain this morning with multiple cg strikes going down on the horizon in front of me.

[JRMcLeod]

I am getting confused with all the differing remarks and Sat images.  Skywarn, ESTOFEX and TORRO all have re-intensification of storms in the afternoon and evening, moving NE across the UK.  Sat images are not showing much to the S and SW...so where is intensification coming from?

 

Members in here as pushing to say its all over...others are saying there is still the rest of the day to go.

 

Can a member with knowledge please summerise the prospects for the whole of the UK from this afternoon onwards please?

[Wet'n'Dry]

Meto at 11am are still bullish about wide spread storms breaking out up here though?  The air is tropical out there, the atmosphere is unstable and as we know they could pop up out of no where - I still think somewhere in England will see something this afternoon - not guaranteed but with the current conditions its positive.

 

Didn't yesterday start off in a similar vein to today?

 

Conditions locally here are identical to Monday with the exception i've been forced to sport flipflops and rather tasty shorts

[nitro_deluxe]

Going for a line of quite widely scattered storms E Mids and up the spine of the country later, tracking NNE..

Likes of Lincs, Tyneside, Humber could see a few sharper echoes.

[NOAJOA]

Going for a line of quite widely scattered storms E Mids and up the spine of the country later, tracking NNE..Likes of Lincs, Tyneside, Humber could see a few sharper echoes.

so no chance  for the south coast?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I bet if I moved house to somewhere like Lincolnshire, Cheshire would become storm capital of the UK!

[nitro_deluxe]

so no chance  for the south coast?

Depends on how generous France is? Kent clippers could scrape E London, then Essex later this evening.

[NOAJOA]

Depends on how generous France is? Kent clippers could scrape E London, then Essex later this evening.

aww ok...havent even had rain here in brighton yet...

[Boro Snow]

It's not over showers will develop later this afternoon and evening across southern areas probs midlands moving into north east England not sure were all this it's over has come from.

[Chris.R]

What about Northwest bloody england!

[BrickFielder]

 I think the models are a little behind actual events at the moment so its hard to predict much for the rest of the day.  Storms for the North East and eastern parts look likely to arrive late afternoon rather than early evening. Elsewhere and storms over northern France have complicated matters somewhat.

Best guess of places to watch over the next few hours based on Eumetsat images would be the following.

 

 

There are no guarantees on this and its a changing situation, but ahead of vorticity advection can be a good place for convection to initiate providing temperatures and dew points are high enough.

[Adi F]

Set up down Dungeness. A storm to my west but don't think much is coming out of it

[Glocken73_2013]

we definitely have the humid and unstable air but the cloud cover here is still pretty much 100% not sure if thats going to hamper things at all because there will be no warming from direct sunlight, temperatures definitely wont reach as high as they did yday and even then it was pretty much hit and miss so im still pretty doubtful of anything significant over here.

[NOAJOA]

It's not over showers will develop later this afternoon and evening across southern areas probs midlands moving into north east England not sure were all this it's over has come from.

wow the midlands seem to have been the centre of attention this time round

[Emz by the Thames]

More bubbly cauliflower rising up in south Bucks.

 

[Richie V]

It aint over, anyone read nick f's post and the skywarn post earlier? Try watching news 24 weather. I was under the impression a wild night ahead beckons? Certainly here in yorks anyway?

[JRMcLeod]

 I think the models are a little behind actual events at the moment so its hard to predict much for the rest of the day.  Storms for the North East and eastern parts look likely to arrive late afternoon rather than early evening. Elsewhere and storms over northern France have complicated matters somewhat.

Best guess of places to watch over the next few hours based on Eumetsat images would be the following.

 

eumetsat12.JPG

 

There are no guarantees on this and its a changing situation, but ahead of vorticity advection can be a good place for convection to initiate providing temperatures and dew points are high enough.

Brickfielder, thanks fo rthe reply.

 

Can i ask what time spans you are thinking?  Are we going to see intensification continue through the night like last night?

 

Are we expecting convection to begin off of the SW of England and increase as the airmass moves NNE?

 

Just trying to get a grasp on the source and potential pattern of movement...

[nitro_deluxe]

I bet if I moved house to somewhere like Lincolnshire, Cheshire would become storm capital of the UK!

Or even Congleton

[UKSupercell]

Disappointing night really. Thunderstorm around 4AM with about 15 lightning flashes and some moderate-heavy bursts of rain, very infrequent lightning. Not exciting whatsoever. And we had a storm around 11AM in South Bucks, lots of thunder, and some small flashes of infrequent lightning, and rain. Total crap so far. Nout like what the folks in Notts, the West Country or Kent have had! Lucky so an so's ! 

[Rammie]

All forecasts I saw yesterday, had a band of very heavy rain moving north eastwards and sitting across Northants during this evening. Has someone cancelled this?

[Harry]

Set up down Dungeness. A storm to my west but don't think much is coming out of it

Good luck Adi F...was an a amazing night last night!! Am hoping for maybe something similar tonight those cells over N France at the moment may make a close pass. Then it's eyes down for later this evening and hopefully it unfolds in a positive way.