Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[ChezWeather]

Certainly the most active period since June 28th last year! And good to see that so many people got some night time lightning for once! 

[sparky1972]

well i guess thats the fun over, cloud breaking and becomming alot brighter, met office forecast for here is now light shower possible much later today, i hope everyone who has had a storm enjoyed it, and for those still waiting, keep the faith,  my next storm watch session might be in 4 weeks time when i am in Kenya

[Supercell 89]

Storm popped up to the SSE of Reading had a few deep rumbles and one flash of lightning. Hopefully may just get clipped by it and get our first storm from this spell

[Supacell]

well i guess thats the fun over, cloud breaking and becomming alot brighter, met office forecast for here is now light shower possible much later today, i hope everyone who has had a storm enjoyed it, and for those still waiting, keep the faith,  my next storm watch session might be in 4 weeks time when i am in Kenya

 

Not a chance. Spalding is very well placed for more storms later today, tonight and at first tomorrow. Ignore the met office forecast symbols they are hardly ever right. Use there text forecasts, listen to the BBC forecasts but more importantly than any of them - listen to the experts on here

Edited July 23, 2013 by Supacell

[boogercj]

Hi all,

 

First post on here, but I was practically glued to this forum and the radars yesterday!

 

Nothing much happend down here in South Devon. There was a glimmer of hope last night at about 2230, as a cell looked like it might develop from the Dart Estuary, moving north towards Exeter but all we got was about 30 seconds of heavy rain, then nothing! It was quite bizarre actually. Couple of distant rumbles at about 0300 today, which I'm not surprised about given the amount of activity to the North.

 

Hoping for something random to pop up from the channel here today; 21C, 80% RH and the thick cloud appears to be burning off. In the meantime, I'm going to try and get some work done in between reading up on "what it all means". I have no idea what a "short wave trough" is! Jolly interesting stuff.

[Norfolk Sheep]

 

Valid: 23/07/2013 0600z to 24/07/2013 0600z

Headline: ... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE UK ...

convmap_230713.jpg

Synopsis

Upper low will be situated to the SW/W of Ireland during the forecast period, with a slack, warm, humid and increasingly cyclonic surface flow across the UK. One or two shortwave troughs are moving NE across the UK this morning, creating large scale ascent and widespread storms. A cold front is developing across SW England, Wales and NW England, which will move erratically E and NE, becoming slow moving across the east by 00z Weds.

... ENGLAND, E WALES and SCOTLAND ...

Large scale destabilisation of warm and very moist plume overnight (theta-w values of 18C+) has lead to widespread thunderstorms to drift N and NE across much of the UK since midnight, the large scale ascent attributed to an upper shortwave trough moving N and NE. S Scotland, N England, The Midlands and E Anglia will see further thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon, these storms moving north across central and N Scotland this morning aswell, these areas will continue to see a risk of flash-flooding along with hail, gusty winds and frequent CG lightning.

In wake of these storms moving north, a warm and humid airmass remains in place across much of  England ahead of cold front developing further west. 00z soundings show rather steep lapse rates above 900mb still in place and with dew points of 17-19C forecast along with increasing amounts of strong insolation as overnight cloud detritus breaks, large amounts of CAPE, perhaps 1000 j/kg+ maybe realised, meaning the airmass will be increasingly unstable this afternoon. Sea breeze convergence inland from SE England through the Midlands and N England along with ascent along cold front moving erratically from the west will likely allow surface-based storms to develop by the afternoon across these areas. The strong instability and modest 20-30 knts of deep layer shear , maybe enough for one or two supercells to develop, or at least multicell structures,  capable of large hail, excessive rainfall, strong straight-line wind gusts and frequent CG lightning. With winds backed E or SE'erly towards the surface from the general S flow aloft - particularly near or just E of convergence zones, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out with strong updrafts in the high instability environment. Therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk, mainly for large hail, excessive rainfall with risk of flash flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Great, I'm not even in the SLGT risk area And as for "further thunderstorms"........Gah! It's not your fault Nick LOL!

[scud]

can hear distant rumbles to my west

[Cloudwatcher]

Just watched the Netweather video grab of last nights action off the radar. Incredible how the storms just follow the line up of the Welsh Marches to the west, and fail to break over into N.Wales/ Cheshire/ Merseyside. Wonder if there is a geograhical/ topographical reason for this?

[Coast]

Hi all,

 

First post on here, but I was practically glued to this forum and the radars yesterday!

 

Welcome and thanks for that first post! (good job we had the tractor beam on!) 

[Supacell]

Looks like another thunderstorm heading my way. This spell has been remarkable and makes up for the rubbish start to 2013. Last night and today alone has already beat most of the recent years for me.

[Paul]

Video grab of the radar and lightning overnight:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5308;sess=

[ChezWeather]

Looks like 2 cells are active currently, 1 north of Oxford and one SE of Reading

[gpspete]

whoa !   just woken up after 3 hours sleep after working last night didn't see a flash of lightning all night to this directly overhead (Bicester Oxfordshire) with shotgun thunder.

don't think i will get much sleep today  

[jonoclouds]

Nottingham: Light rain interspersed with heavy showers. Broken low cloud. Occasional rumbles of thunder. Enjoyed terrific storm yesterday 21:30-22:30. Intense storm 05:00 onwards today. 19mm rain recorded so far. 19C now.

It's been a marvellous show so far, with the possibility of more later today.

Jono.

[Azazel]

massive bust for us last night. Still no rain, nothing. Closest we got were the wiltshire storms in the afternoon/evening that werent even forecast. Not sure what happened to the thundery rain that was supposed to move up from the channel. Good thing I didnt stay up! Think maybe central southern England should be removed from all future forecasts as we never get anything here

[Emz by the Thames]

Thunder west High Wycombe a moment ago....oh and again as I type much louder.

[carlyb]

Nice storm brewing in Hinckley (LE9) right now

[reef]

Nothing here all night, just 0.2mm of rain which fell 30 minutes ago. The onshore breeze killed everything that approached. What a massive dissapointment!

[sparky1972]

Not a chance. Spalding is very well placed for more storms later today, tonight and at first tomorrow. Ignore the met office forecast symbols they are hardly ever right. Use there text forecasts, listen to the BBC forecasts but more importantly than any of them - listen to the experts on here

i am loving your positive thoughts

[storm1080]

massive bust for us last night. Still no rain, nothing. Closest we got were the wiltshire storms in the afternoon/evening that werent even forecast. Not sure what happened to the thundery rain that was supposed to move up from the channel. Good thing I didnt stay up! Think maybe central southern England should be removed from all future forecasts as we never get anything here

 

 

same here, south central, no rain, no thunder...everythings missing us

[vortex_liam]

storms are really firing up in the channel, I can see myself getting a store soon!Liam

[vortex_liam]

The cell SE of reading has a small tail thats just gone electric!Liam

[Tom Jarvis]

Hope one of the cells in the channel hits me

[Cold Winter]

Boring non-event for us so far, let's hope things get a bit more interesting soon for East Yorkshire and eastern parts of North Yorkshire. Everything keeps dying out as it heads this way. It looks like there could be some heavy rain this evening but don't know whether it'll be thundery?!

[carlyb]

Hinckley storm petered out, Humidity still at 89%