Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Cloudwatcher]

Awful day here now. Not a hint of a storm, just lumbered with a 100% coverage of gloomy murk. No signs of sun to start heating things up, it's just sticky and dull. The worst of all worlds. Please someone give me a fragment of hope for later! lol

[BeckyB]

Clouds are starting to bubble up a bit now and its 22degrees and very muggy

[Harry]

All forecasts I saw yesterday, had a band of very heavy rain moving north eastwards and sitting across Northants during this evening. Has someone cancelled this?

See what happens...the majority were writing of yesterday before bedtime and then it all kicked off in bombastic style in quite a few areas. As Brickfielder says the models are struggling to digest the setup at the moment so pretty much anything goes....I personally couldn't even begin to guess...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Awful day here now. Not a hint of a storm, just lumbered with a 100% coverage of gloomy murk. No signs of sun to start heating things up, it's just sticky and dull. The worst of all worlds. Please someone give me a fragment of hope for later! lol

Can't see it, all looks further east. Today was originally THE day for us but it shunted away later on Sunday's modelling and yesterday.

[nitro_deluxe]

Bit noisy C London at the mo...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Or even Congleton

Those Congleton folk are spoilt, more snow in winter and more storms in summer. Pfft!

[SalopWatcher]

Blue sky here for the first time today as its clearing away all the muck left from this mornings storms over the west mids, temps shot up last hour or so! 22/23 no 80% Humidity. 

[scotto]

It's a lovely day, with temps of 24c and a dew point of 22c and not a cloud in the sky. Had thunder and lightning on and off from about 9.30 last night and ended about an hour and a half ago, but I always want more.

[TheToastPeople]

Im pretty sure given the very unstable air mass there will be some pretty beefy storms erupting in the evening today so please people don't give up just yet! Sun needs to do its work first.

[BrickFielder]

Brickfielder, thanks fo rthe reply.

 

Can i ask what time spans you are thinking?  Are we going to see intensification continue through the night like last night?

 

Are we expecting convection to begin off of the SW of England and increase as the airmass moves NNE?

 

Just trying to get a grasp on the source and potential pattern of movement...

 

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Only thing confirmed is the storms continuing into the afternoon for the north east. I dont expect storms into the night for most areas (possible for some eastern areas), but think there is a low chance (25%) of some home grown storms developing along the south coast during the afternoon, which might drift as far as the midlands before decaying.  Give it an hour though and I might change my mind again as satelitte picture show different developments.

[Supacell]

What a difference a couple of hours makes. Went to sleep to cloudy skies and heavy rain with the occasional rumble and have woken up to clear blue skies and sunshine here. 

 

Whilst checking back through my footage i noticed some of the bolts of lightning i filmed were a bit blurred but then others were crystal clear. It's a bit disappointing but at least it was only around 30% of them and not all of them. I have had this trouble before during night time storms. Does anyone know why? Is it anything to do with how bright the flashes are affecting the lens (going from darkness to very bright in a split second) or is it something I am doing wrong?

 

Edit: I just use a basic Sony handycam.

Edited July 23, 2013 by Supacell

[JRMcLeod]

 

Brickfielder, thanks fo rthe reply.

 

Can i ask what time spans you are thinking?  Are we going to see intensification continue through the night like last night?

 

Are we expecting convection to begin off of the SW of England and increase as the airmass moves NNE?

 

Just trying to get a grasp on the source and potential pattern of movement...

 

----------------------

Only thing confirmed is the storms continuing into the afternoon for the north east. I dont expect storms into the night for most areas (possible for some eastern areas), but think there is a low chance (25%) of some home grown storms developing along the south coast during the afternoon, which might drift as far as the midlands before decaying.  Give it an hour though and I might change my mind again as satelitte picture show different developments.

 

Humfff...so another great spell missed by us!  I'll close the door behind me on my way over to the NSC...

[Jan]

Cloudy here, the sun did pop out for a bit earlier, currently 25.3c humidity 45%, hoping for more thunder later on

[poseidon]

Convection underway again here, sun on full power and very hot/humid. Looks messy over to my NW where activity re-initiated a bit for a while on radar.

 

Wind has picked up a bit.

Edited July 23, 2013 by poseidon

[tsr]

Good afternoon all - another new poster here - I will try to behave myself!

 

Here in the Redhill area, it's been a very boring day so far. There has been some thunder around 1100BST from the West (around Dorking/Guildford) but this was extremely faint and no precipitation or lighting was so much as visible from here. Something was heading this way, but it died - boo! I do have reports that the storm partially carried on over the Wimbledon area, so a couple of friends were lucky at work. The base of the cell was reasonably dark but it just looked like a miserable sort of grey sky from here.

 

Last night was also disappointing. Many storms were around the South-East, as we all know, but the only thing of any significance seemed to be the odd spot of distant (but occasionally dramatic) lightning and a couple of more "convective" showers. It seemed the relatively dramatic slopes of the North Downs repelled anything building up too much, as some of the rain moved over Central London and put on a reasonable show.

 

If I'm perfectly honest, I'm not massively hopeful for this afternoon/evening, but then again there have been some interesting formations over Kent which could be a sign of rather better things to come over here, and also a "troubled", gusty breeze. One or two artefacts on the radar, too. Estofex started out as rather uncertain, but seem to be more positive just now. We shall see if the haze becomes a happier storm-filled sky!

[topbanana]

warm and muggy here in slough again

28c as per weather station and sunny spells

 

hoping for another storm to clear air

[cheese]

Cumulus is starting to develop to my SW. Clouds properly clearing now with lovely blue skies to the SW - currently shining now but it's hazy. Hopefully the temperature can increase a little bit more..

[Supacell]

It's 24/18 here - which is actually about the same as this time yesterday for these parts. Clouds developing quickly with skies almost completely overcast after clear skies just half hour ago.

 

Showers, although currently light, have just sprung up around Warwickshire. Probably need to watch these as the air is ripe for them to explode into life very quickly.

Edited July 23, 2013 by Supacell

[Coast]

Good afternoon all - another new poster here - I will try to behave myself!

 

Welcome, welcome! It's really great to see a whole new bunch of 'faces' and contributing too!

[UKSupercell]

Seems to me that the North-West and Home Counties just get bugger all. Those in Cheshire, Lancashire...I share your frustration! 

[JRMcLeod]

Looking on Sat24 (infrared), The storms in France an hour ago were pretty much dissipated, only this past hour have they began to form again with some vigour.  They are on a northerly track, if they continue i wouldnt be surprised to see them make it across the channel and clip onto the south east coast. 

 

Wondering if something may also be brewing off of the SW coast of Wales/England, tracking NE.

 

Thoughts?

[Mark Griffin]

Temps have shot up to 25c now with humidity of 73% after the sun has peeped though 

[weatherobsuk]

Convection and wind gusts picking up as the convergence begins to take shape here.

[Supercell 89]

Currently 27.0c with a dew point of 15.8c feeling slightly muggy still, had a max of 27.6c earlier. Hopefully this is enough to provide enough energy for later on didn't think it would be getting this warm today.

[Stuart]

seeem like them storms have just all died in scotland so may just be rain for me