Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Cloudwatcher]

It is interesting, maybe they can see something happening up there over these areas. Amber warnings are normally raised when severe weather is more imminent as there needs to be a reasonable likelihood as well as impact. Of course anything that developed here would likely spread NE and so eastern areas would still be at risk. The Amber warnings may get expanded into Yorkshire and NE England later?

 

That Met warning literally has us just on the outside of that boundary....we will wait and see.

[BA Baracus]

It is interesting, maybe they can see something happening up there over these areas. Amber warnings are normally raised when severe weather is more imminent as there needs to be a reasonable likelihood as well as impact. Of course anything that developed here would likely spread NE and so eastern areas would still be at risk. The Amber warnings may get expanded into Yorkshire and NE England later?

 

Looking at the warning the majority of west Yorkshire and parts of North Yorkshire are encompassed in the amber area.  I'm guessing the prediction is to be spawned to the west of the pennines and slowly drift east/north east before dying away

[alr1970]

Met office have now raised the warning to Amber for NW England. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1374534000

 

Signs of some bigger clouds starting to develop on latest satellite picture in a line from Birmingham to Manchester/Liverpool.

Are they having a laugh at our expense?

[Darren Bown]

VERY interesting by the MetOffice, seems like their confidence is a lot higher than the storms we had last night (all under a yellow warning)

[Weather-history]

Looks like cells have developed over the Fylde unless they are anaprop.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Amber warning too far north for here anyway.

 

Just looked at the latest output and potentially Thursday is peaking my interest.

[Cloudwatcher]

This may seem a ridiculous question but I'm absolutely serious in asking it. of my more learned friends, is there ANY way a major man-made feature can influence storms/ storm tracks. Because looking at last nights radar, and other storms like the ones in June last year, any storms that originate in the east/ south east of us...ie: Lincolnshire, North Midlands, Shropshire literally seem to get killed stone dead by the M6 motorway! I know this sounds flippant but its a genuine question! Can it have any effect? 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Are they having a laugh at our expense?

Looking at the FAX chart, there's the triple point (I usually think it's a core of the low where you get the warm and cold fronts starting but we're 9 hours on from that chart so should be a triple point by now)  on those fronts just off Liverpool could be the cause of the convergence

 

Edited July 23, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Darren Bown]

Initiation begun in NW England.

[Anvils in the Sky]

Hello all. ANOTHER newbie here. This current spell of weather has certainly brought us out of the woodwork!

 

Was just too far west to be right underneath the first Kent storm last night. But that gave wonderful views of the incredible lightning. The second storm was right overhead. And boy did the windows rattle a few times.

 

Hoping for more activity later today and through this evening/night. But would that be greedy?!

Edited July 23, 2013 by Anvils in the Sky

[Cold Winter]

As if by magic a few speckles appearing on the latest radar returns across NW England stretching down towards the Midlands. Presumably this is the start of the formation of more storms predicted by the Met Office, and perhaps these are going to drift NE and affect eastern areas of NE england this evening and overnight.

[Cloud 10]

ssued at - 23 Jul 2013, 14:33
Valid from - 23 Jul 2013, 16:45
Valid to - 23 Jul 2013, 23:00

Thunderstorms giving localised downpours and large hail are expected to develop across northern England during the latter part of the afternoon and through the evening.

The public should be prepared for disruption due to localised flooding.

 

Met Office: UK: severe weather warnings

 

 

 

 

  ......... 

Edited July 23, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Supacell]

Even Jay Wynne was ramping up the likelihood for the north west in particular. I have my fingers crossed for the likes of Crewe Cold and Cloudwatcher that have had to wait so long for a storm.

 

I may take a trip up towards Buxton as there are a few good vantage points to look over Manchester/Stockport from there.

[Harry]

Decreasing confidence for the SE corner...seems most models have got that spot on.

Erupting over France atm but with a very pronounced NE shift. Unless that area moving into Normandy can fire off, we very much will be out of the headlines today.

Good luck you lot in the amber area in particular

[SalopWatcher]

This may seem a ridiculous question but I'm absolutely serious in asking it. of my more learned friends, is there ANY way a major man-made feature can influence storms/ storm tracks. Because looking at last nights radar, and other storms like the ones in June last year, any storms that originate in the east/ south east of us...ie: Lincolnshire, North Midlands, Shropshire literally seem to get killed stone dead by the M6 motorway! I know this sounds flippant but its a genuine question! Can it have any effect? 

 

I'm not sure any storms from Shropshire would need to cross the M6 to get to Ellsemere Port?

 

That's said only Telford in the very east of Shropshire had significant storms as far as i'm aware yesterday.. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm not sure any storms from Shropshire would need to cross the M6 to get to Ellsemere Port?

 

That's said only Telford in the very east of Shropshire had significant storms as far as i'm aware yesterday.. 

 

You're the person I generally look for reports from as anything that forms as far west as you at least has a chance of making it here.

[Cloudwatcher]

I'm not sure any storms from Shropshire would need to cross the M6 to get to Ellsemere Port?

 

That's said only Telford in the very east of Shropshire had significant storms as far as i'm aware yesterday.. 

 

Yeah, it was just almost like the storms from last night hit an invisible barrier and got shunted North up the M6!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah, it was just almost like the storms from last night hit an invisible barrier and got shunted North up the M6!

 

Yes I noticed that. They were pushing due N but the heavy stuff pushed under S Cheshire and skirted east through Stoke and up Macclesfield way. Can only think it was in some way related to altitude as it diverted around the flattest of the Cheshire basin.

[sparky1972]

not looking to good for storms here, but it was a good night last night and a good cpl of hours this morning, good luck to those who get any storms later.

[BA Baracus]

Yeah, it was just almost like the storms from last night hit an invisible barrier and got shunted North up the M6!

 

Does the motorway follow a natural contour in the landscape?  Was it easier for engineers to built the road along a valley bottom or something?  The M4 also seems to be a regular weather barrier/border along with the M1 in Yorkshire.

[cheese]

Seems to be Altocumulus castellanus developing here. One large cloud to my SW seems to be casting a shadow on itself.

Edited July 23, 2013 by cheese

[tsr]

Suddenly feeling very oppressive here in East Surrey. No idea if this is significant really, given the similar conditions yesterday resulting in pretty much nowt! However, the shade temperature has actually dropped from 28ºC to around 27ºC, whereas on previous days it has locally spiked around 1600. Wind is sliding SSW to SW and decreasing to around 3 or 4mph. Fluffy clouds and very hazy at a sort of imprecise "mid-way" altitude. I will be very pleased if the band of precipitation shown on NW Radar from Portsmouth to Brighton turns out to be of interest.

Edited July 23, 2013 by tsr

[weatherobsuk]

looking more promising

 

http://www.sat24.com/gb

[Cheshire Freeze]

Does the motorway follow a natural contour in the landscape?  Was it easier for engineers to built the road along a valley bottom or something?  The M4 also seems to be a regular weather barrier/border along with the M1 in Yorkshire.

 

It skirts around the southern end of the Pennines, jarring west at junction 15 so to avoid the uplands of the Staffordshire Moorlands and southern Pennines. Thing is we always used to get plentiful storms so what has changed?

[SalopWatcher]

Yes frustrating for us on a line from say Shrewsbury up to Liverpool (and all of Midwales and north wales)... strange thing this morning was there was a more western line of storms that had fired over south wales up to Hereford, and these were heading on a line towards us but they died off on the south part of Shropshirea roun 7/8 am.. you can see it on the 24 hour plot of storms... that was the one that had our name on it and let us down. 

 

I always feel its the opposite... tend to get storms fire over south/south east wales but drift that bit to far north and east for us.. happened with the massive supercells last summer when they to a kicked right to miss us over Herefordshire and then Worcestershire - West Mids. 

 

I always put it down to the geography, the hills of the Brecons and the mid wales border don't seem to be conductive to storm development over the last few years, lots of times on a day like to day that's a dead zone... even when there are storms in south west wales they die in that area.