South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Marcus_surfer]

Increased chance of thundery activity tomorrow night

[windseeker]

Looking at the GFS charts not quite sure why they are calling this a breakdown.

Overall temps getting into the mid 20's every day and pretty much dry right up till Sunday.

 

Slightly cooler than late but still above average.

 

Breakdown not, just easing off throttle.

[Andy Pepler]

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[AWD]

Increased chance of thundery activity tomorrow night image.jpg

Compared to the 06z, it's a slight move away;

But yes, I agree there is a small chance (for now) for something isolated thundery activity for Devon & Cornwall tomorrow night. Will keep an eye on how it develops tomorrow.

Looking at the GFS charts not quite sure why they are calling this a breakdown.

Only Draztik is. ;)

[Level1]

Hi, sorry to crash your thread. I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster.

Being Leeds based I'm not usually interested in the SW but I'm going to WOMAD festival on 25-29th in Malmesbury and I was hoping some of you could shed some light on the likely forecast. I'm trying to work out if it's dress weather, welly weather or both.

[AWD]

Hi, sorry to crash your thread. I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster. Being Leeds based I'm not usually interested in the SW but I'm going to WOMAD festival on 25-29th in Malmesbury and I was hoping some of you could shed some light on the likely forecast. I'm trying to work out if it's dress weather, welly weather or both.

I would go for both.Within that 4 days, you're likely to get some rainfall whether it be showers or longer periods of rain, along with sunny spells too.Subject to change of course, but at this stage I would say;Thursday; Sunshine and ShowersFriday; Mostly dry with some sunny spellsSaturday/Sunday; Period of heavy rain possible but timing and duration uncertain. Sunny spells either side of any rain, perhaps lengthy.Should be warm and at times, humid all through the period in question though. Edited July 23, 2013 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

Hi, sorry to crash your thread. I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster. Being Leeds based I'm not usually interested in the SW but I'm going to WOMAD festival on 25-29th in Malmesbury and I was hoping some of you could shed some light on the likely forecast. I'm trying to work out if it's dress weather, welly weather or both.

Well it still looks warm, although i'd expect evening and night temps to ease down from last couple of weeks.Prepare for some showers, at least, i'd guess but it'll also be sunny at times.Edit: Sorry AWD you just beat me to it. Edited July 23, 2013 by Bristle boy

[AWD]

Well it still looks warm, although i'd expect evening and night temps to ease down from last couple of weeks.Prepare for some showers, at least, i'd guess but it'll also be sunny at times.Edit: Sorry AWD you just beat me to it.

lol. Guess we are both thinking along the same lines!

[lfcdude]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather4m

W COUNTRY Much uncertainty ahead for later Sat into Sun; expect model oscillation re threat of poss major MCS (thunder/rain) event S England

[AWD]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather4m

W COUNTRY Much uncertainty ahead for later Sat into Sun; expect model oscillation re threat of poss major MCS (thunder/rain) event S England

That's what the EC Det showed this evening but I refrained from saying anything as it will raise people's hopes up and with it being an age away still, it is highly likely to change.

Edited July 23, 2013 by AWD

[slb97]

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather4m

W COUNTRY Much uncertainty ahead for later Sat into Sun; expect model oscillation re threat of poss major MCS (thunder/rain) event S England

 

That sounds interesting!  Thanks for posting that although appreciate what AWD's saying about highly likely to change but you never know.

Edited July 23, 2013 by slb97

[Bristawl Si]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather4m

W COUNTRY Much uncertainty ahead for later Sat into Sun; expect model oscillation re threat of poss major MCS (thunder/rain) event S England

Nice one! And as i dont work weekends i can stay up to watch.

Then hopefully by Sunday morning it would've cleared to leave a glorious Sunday.

I do like my summer days and evenings dry, warm and sunny but the odd thunderstorm is good.

[Karl83]

Interesting forecast for Saturday. Shame I'll be in North Wales. Thunderstorms possible in the south!

[AWD]

This is a snippet taken from the recently issued UKASF forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night;

"... S WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

Main period of interest will be from 18z onwards as a developing frontal system develops beneath a sharpening upper trough and an approaching/strengthening jet left exit. An area of showery rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms will gradually migrate northeastwards across these areas, although with a tendency to lose lightning activity as it moves further inland through the evening. Backed surface winds may allow an isolated funnel or weak tornado to form given rather low LCLs"

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/258

This is what I've been trying to highlight throughout today. It remains a long shot IMO currently but it is something to watch for the South West in particular.

Edited July 23, 2013 by AWD

[Karl83]

This is a snippet taken from the recently issued UKASF forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night;"... S WALES, SW ENGLAND ...Main period of interest will be from 18z onwards as a developing frontal system develops beneath a sharpening upper trough and an approaching/strengthening jet left exit. An area of showery rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms will gradually migrate northeastwards across these areas, although with a tendency to lose lightning activity as it moves further inland through the evening. Backed surface winds may allow an isolated funnel or weak tornado to form given rather low LCLs"

This sounds good.

 

Also, for those of you on here now. If you have an android phone, get Blitzortung Lightning App from the Play Store. Used it properly for the 1st time last night. Programmed it to set off an alarm when lightning was detected within 10 miles of my location. Its spot on peeps and woke me up just as the storms came in!

 

A must have app for people like us!

Edited July 23, 2013 by Karl83

[AWD]

This sounds good.

I wouldn't get to excited for our area mate, it's more for Devon & Cornwall if it does verify, which is still questionable in itself.

[Level1]

Thank you! Glad I've bought a giant gazebo. It deals with sun and rain!

[Karl83]

I wouldn't get to excited for our area mate, it's more for Devon & Cornwall if it does verify, which is still questionable in itself.

I'm not mate don't worry. Its going to take something like last night to get me excited again. So I probably won't be excited until next year lol.

 

I keep watching this video I recorded of last night over and over again lol. The unexpected crash of thunder is immense!!

[AWD]

I'm not mate don't worry. Its going to take something like last night to get me excited again. So I probably won't be excited until next year lol.I keep watching this video I recorded of last night over and over again lol. The unexpected crash of thunder is immense!!

Upload the video if you can mate.

[Karl83]

Upload the video if you can mate.

Will do. Going to trim it down a little as its 10mins long. I'll get it on here tomorrow at some point.

 

EDIT: Got some more photos to post too!

Edited July 23, 2013 by Karl83

[AWD]

Latest Met Office forecast for tomorrow for SW England;

"A few showers around, but most places staying generally dry with broken cloud and warm sunny spells. Heavy, perhaps thundery rain spreading into western parts by evening. Maximum temperature 24 °C."

And for the remainder of the working week;

"A band of showery rain clearing through Thursday, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy and thundery showers. Feeling less hot, but still warmer than average."

Perhaps a suprise or two for a lucky few over the next few days then.

Off to bed now anyway. Nice to see some more potential if nothing else.

[legritter]

Yes some potential interesting weather as last poster [AWD ]said ,monday night was special for those who recieved storm ,mother natures firework display ,catch up later enjoy another nice summers day ,

[AWD]

Just a quick one from me, going out soon. UKMO and GEM have some heavy rain/showers entering the SW overnight tonight;

NAE has it mostly over Wales;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=1&INFO=0

And the Met Office Invent model has it more showery with some localised heavy pulses scattered over the South West;

There is some vertical lift and CAPE around the far South West but it's limited and weak so I'm on the fence regarding any thundery potential to it. Some isolated activity is possible but I can't see too much activity personally.

I'll leave the weekends err......... "MCS" out of this thread and leave the SE thread to discuss that.

[Andy Bown]

Desperately needing rain now! Had it not been for the surprise 10mm on 27th-28th June my water butts would be completely empty now (only dregs remain) and the ground situation would probably be even browner lol !

We had a few sharp showers early yesterday at the edge of the storms and even less from this morning narrow line of showers, both times the ground has barely been wetted.

Really hoping for several hours of rain tonight!

As for the weekend, thanks for sharing Ian's tweet about an MCS risk but it's not worth getting excited about until Friday at the earliest!

Also, you know you're in a good summer when a cloudier, cooler day is still nudging 25c in he early afternoon!

[MrNooo]

Just one of my lightning shots, first go at it, storm got going in front of me then just stopped, more practice needed!