South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[AWD]

0z GFS highlighting Monday has a potentially convective day in our region;

[Andy Bown]

Is normal service resumed with that massive MCS just clipping the far SE this morning?!

Am assuming the showery rain further W in N.France is what's going to develop and move up during the day.

[AWD]

Latest EC Det showing the potential for some hefty showers or longer spells of rain over the next 96 hours.

Today shows some heavy and persistent rain for Hampshire, Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Wiltshire and east Dorset. Lighter rain for the Bristol area, Gloucestershire & Somerset. Little, if any for Devon & Cornwall;

Sunday highlights the risk of some heavy and possibly thundery showers over Cornwall, Devon and the West Country;

Similiar story on Monday, with the risk spreading east into Wiltshire, Hampshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire as Monday progresses;

Some heavy and more persistent rainfall possible on Tuesday across the South West and West Country;

[AWD]

Is normal service resumed with that massive MCS just clipping the far SE this morning?!Am assuming the showery rain further W in N.France is what's going to develop and move up during the day.

Yup, that baby isn't coming nowhere near us. Looks beautiful in northern France though;

[Lynxus]

Gotta love the strike rate on that bad boy ( and the new one to the SW )

 

[AWD]

Basically, for today's rain event, we are looking at developments in the Biscay/NW France area, circled below;

The green lines show the 850hpa flow of air, the steering winds that will control the direction of travel of any cell developments. You can see from that chart that we are looking at a N/NE flow.

To see how things are looking throughout the day, find yourself a Satelitte or radar imagery, and watch for developments to the S/SW of your location.

Edited July 27, 2013 by AWD

[Lynxus]

Basically, for today's rain event, we are looking at developments in the Biscay/NW France area, circled below;

image.jpg

The green lines show the 850hpa flow of air, the steering winds that will control the direction of travel of any cell developments. You can see from that chart that we are looking at a N/NE flow.

To see how things are looking throughout the day, find yourself a Satelitte or radar imagery, and watch for developments to the S/SW of your location.

 

Yarp.

Will certainly be interesting seeing how much does grow out there.

 

Knowing how unpredictable this weather can be, we could be in for some good fun or nothing at all.

Just gotta see how it ignites over there ( and its looking good so far )

[AWD]

MetO invent model has some heavy rain arriving ino southern counties later this afternoon;

This then transferring north through the early evening, although losing some intensity as it does so;

[lightningsprite]

Bet we miss out...here on the southern coast of Hampshire weve heard thunder this summer and seen lighting but no storm has actually come closer than 8 miles...:-( Would be nice to have something other than just flippin rain...

[AWD]

Bet we miss out...here on the southern coast of Hampshire weve heard thunder this summer and seen lighting but no storm has actually come closer than 8 miles...:-( Would be nice to have something other than just flippin rain...

You won't get no storm activity, no. That's unlikely. That will be reserved for the eastern periphery of the rainband.You are in line for some rainfall though, but that's it. Edited July 27, 2013 by AWD

[gloucesterlad]

..could be an exciting evening/night for many... all eyes to the south !

John in Quedgeley, Gloucester

p.s. Only a couple of days ago.. nothing was forecast for our region ! All the action was to' our east supposedly. (and it will probably change again....)

[lightningsprite]

MetO invent model has some heavy rain arriving ino southern counties later this afternoon;

image.jpg

This then transferring north through the early evening, although losing some intensity as it does so;

image.jpg

See that gap in the forecast? That'll be right over Sway and Tiptoe in the Forest!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What happened to the Southern Central thread? Us deep Southerners are no where near the likes of Bristol/Bath!

[noggin]

What happened to the Southern Central thread? Us deep Southerners are no where near the likes of Bristol/Bath!

 

 

I gather that there was tumbleweed blowing around in the SC forum so it was decided that it would be merged with a neighbour.

 

I agree with you though..........hearing what's happening in Hampshire isn't very helpful if you are in, say, Cornwall!

[noggin]

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

 

Don't know how reliable this is, but it's all going off to the East.

Are we going to get rain or will it be another let-down?

 

 

I sound like a right old moaning minnie, but this blasted rain that we keep getting forecast(ed) just doesn't ever seem to materialise.

 

Grumble, grumble..........

[textmum]

Yup, that baby isn't coming nowhere near us. Looks beautiful in northern France though;

image.jpg

 

 

Gotta love the strike rate on that bad boy ( and the new one to the SW )

 

Anyone have an idea of the time it might hit Gloucester, we have a family BBQ planned :-(

[AWD]

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

Don't know how reliable this is, but it's all going off to the East.

Are we going to get rain or will it be another let-down?

I sound like a right old moaning minnie, but this blasted rain that we keep getting forecast(ed) just doesn't ever seem to materialise.

Grumble, grumble..........

You will get some rain. How heavy is stills tad uncertain, but it is very likely you will see some rainfall.

Estofex concentrate on storm forecasts only. We aren't forecast any storms in our region but we are forecast bog standard rain, perhaps heavy.

That's why estofex haven't included us. Not because we aren't forecast rain, we are, but because we aren't forecast storms.

[lettice]

After a cloudy start this morning, its now blue skies here 22c, 1008 hpa and falling slowly after falling all morning.

Looking at the radars it seems the rain may be heading our way later this afternoon

Edited July 27, 2013 by lettice

[textmum]

ANyone know what time approximately the storm is due to hit Gloucester, we have a family BBQ planned :-(

[AWD]

ANyone know what time approximately the storm is due to hit Gloucester, we have a family BBQ planned :-(

Roughly speaking, inbetween 14:00 and 17:00.

[MP-R]

Nice morning here, in fact weather getting better since earlier on so will be able to mow the lawn. Hopefully a sign of things to come and it will stay dry for the harbour festival events this evening - nothing anywhere near us on the radar at the moment so something has to appear pretty damn quickly if we're going to get rain by this afternoon.

[noggin]

You will get some rain. How heavy is stills tad uncertain, but it is very likely you will see some rainfall.

Estofex concentrate on storm forecasts only. We aren't forecast any storms in our region but we are forecast bog standard rain, perhaps heavy.

That's why estofex haven't included us. Not because we aren't forecast rain, we are, but because we aren't forecast storms.

 

 

Thank you AWD. Answering all of our questions and explaining things......it's like having our own meteorological agony aunt. uncle!

 

Either that, or an infant school teacher explaining why we can't always have what we want!

 

You have the patience of a saint!

[dec10snow]

Yup, that baby isn't coming nowhere near us. Looks beautiful in northern France though;

image.jpg

Wow!! When and where abouts was this taken!?

[textmum]

Roughly speaking, inbetween 14:00 and 17:00.

Thank you AWD, BBQ planned for 6pm

[Rammie]

That's a very different outlook to the post above it :-) beautiful here in Northants too.

Nice morning here, in fact weather getting better since earlier on so will be able to mow the lawn. Hopefully a sign of things to come and it will stay dry for the harbour festival events this evening - nothing anywhere near us on the radar at the moment so something has to appear pretty damn quickly if we're going to get rain by this afternoon.