South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[galacticwarrior]

Storms are probably are going to hit Reading possibly.

And guess what?

I have to go to London

[AWD]

Shall we all have a little snigger at our South East cousins;

"Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm)."

"Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France."

I joke of course!

And regarding our area from Ian, some better news;

"W COUNTRY Any heavier rain likely to be thro a period into early-mid eve, probably Wilts/Glos but nothing exceptional. No real risk thundery"

"Latest UKMO assessment generally much less threatening across S England: much more positive, despite areas of heavy rain/some thunder later"

Still some rain forecast then, but hopefully not troublesome amounts now.

[Lynxus]

Shall we all have a little snigger at our South East cousins;"Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm).""Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France."I joke of course!And regarding our area from Ian, some better news;"W COUNTRY Any heavier rain likely to be thro a period into early-mid eve, probably Wilts/Glos but nothing exceptional. No real risk thundery""Latest UKMO assessment generally much less threatening across S England: much more positive, despite areas of heavy rain/some thunder later"Still some rain forecast then, but hopefully not troublesome amounts now.

 

 

Im positive that this will change again

[Lynxus]

Highlighted areas show promise.

 

Looks like some convection around exeter area has created a moderate shower.. Will it grow? Unlikely... But never know in these conditions..

 

 

[Argyle1980]

Hello there.

I have set up a Net weather fantasy football league free to enter for anyone who likes football.

Simply go to www.premierleague.com and pick a team!.

Then once you have done this go to leagues and punch in this code in this code 284650-75358.

Hope to see some of you there.

Anyway I'm off out to enjoy some of this Saturday weather, think we are staying dry here in Cornwall.

Have a great weekend and take care

[AWD]

Hello there.I have set up a Net weather fantasy football league free to enter for anyone who likes football.Simply go to www.premierleague.com and pick a team!.Then once you have done this go to leagues and punch in this code in this code 284650-75358.Hope to see some of you there.Anyway I'm off out to enjoy some of this Saturday weather, think we are staying dry here in Cornwall.Have a great weekend and take care

I can't do it now mate, but busy. PM me that post though before it gets lost so I can join later please.Thanks.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi,

 

I'm not sure if anyone caught this post from the MOD thread, but I think this is fair assessment from OMM of today's unfolding situation.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

It is tempting at this stage to claim the forecast from yesterday was all wrong, but this is still a developing situation.

 

The frontal boundary right now has a N-S orientation but upper winds are still SSW so everything is currently shifted further E. But the satellite presentation shows the boundary is forming a wave to the S and storms are still developing just to the E of it.

 

What I find particularly interesting is the huge storm cell that moved up the Channel overnight. It's appearance on satellite gives every impression of it being a meso-cyclone; the cirrus outflow is like a mini-hurricane, so it is so powerful it has created this. I don't recall seeing such a storm in a long time.

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

 

 

Rain seems to be gathering to the S, so anything might happen as the day goes on.

 

The model longer term outlook brings us firmly into Atlantic air, at least for a time, but the prospect remains for another plume situation developing in a few days.

 

Fascinating weather!

[otleygas]

Hi all. Currently camping near Wells and have limited battery life on my phone, so haven't been able to trawl all the threads! Can anyone give an update please on current forecast re heavy rain and esp any thunder threat for this region this evening through to Sunday please? Don't mind a bit of 'normal' rain, but might decide to pack up early if going to be thunder/torrential rain! ( we are due to be leaving tomorrow anyway). Thanks

[AWD]

Hi all. Currently camping near Wells and have limited battery life on my phone, so haven't been able to trawl all the threads! Can anyone give an update please on current forecast re heavy rain and esp any thunder threat for this region this evening through to Sunday please? Don't mind a bit of 'normal' rain, but might decide to pack up early if going to be thunder/torrential rain! ( we are due to be leaving tomorrow anyway). Thanks

No thunder/storm threat for the region today or tonight.Still with a degree of uncertainty, but the latest is for bog standard moderate rainfall to commence later this afternoon and last into the evening (broadly speaking).Rainfall amounts shouldn't be troublesome, although some locally heavy falls are possible. Most, away from Devon & Cornwall, will see bog standard, average falls.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just my rather amusing take of things from the adjacent regional.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/?p=2752816

[Argyle1980]

I can't do it now mate, but busy. PM me that post though before it gets lost so I can join later please.Thanks.

Will do mate, we have 3 weeks till the start.

[A.J]

No thunder/storm threat for the region today or tonight.

Still with a degree of uncertainty, but the latest is for bog standard moderate rainfall to commence later this afternoon and last into the evening (broadly speaking).

Rainfall amounts shouldn't be troublesome, although some locally heavy falls are possible. Most, away from Devon & Cornwall, will see bog standard, average falls.

a few developments currently occurring in the channel might change that bud, a line of thundery showers has developed from the Exeter area due south through the channel, sferics now being detected...these showers are drifting slowly NNE....as to whether or not they hold together/develop/fall apart is anyone's guess, but the current radar just goes to show that it really is a nowcast situation

[gottolovethisweather]

Despite AWDs confidence, it seems the weather has once again fooled us all (including the pros) as there are some electrically enhanced cells potentially heading into parts of East Devon and West Dorset over the coming hours. Whose to say there won't be some decent storms after all.

Edited July 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

Despite AWDs confidence, it seems the weather has once again fooled us all (including the pros) as there are some electrically enhanced cells potentially heading into parts of East Devon and West Dorset over the coming hours. Whose to say there won't be some decent storms after all.

off topic but...(god I hate that phrase...lol)...are you coming to the forum team meet up mate?

[SNOWYLAD]

Yes appears some lively cells in channel heading north east towards, devon & somerset

[sherrie]

Just had a small rain shower here in Axminster

[Wilxy]

Starting to turn lively now along the English channel.

[gottolovethisweather]

off topic but...(god I hate that phrase...lol)...are you coming to the forum team meet up mate?

 

Unfortunately not AJ, but I suspect our paths will cross on some occasion in the future.

[sherrie]

Apparantly thunder heard about 5 mins ago, husband playing cricket and heard it.

[island lad]

If that weather system over Biscay doesn't weaken as it passes over English channel then I reckon the Isle of wight and surrounding areas will get more than what is currently forecast. One thing for sure, I won't be drawing my curtains when it gets dark :-)

[AWD]

I don't expect any electrical activity to make much, if any roads inland unfortunetly but my God I hope I'm wrong as I need an excuse not to go to the pub tonight.

[island lad]

Looking to the south of the island (beyond ventnor/niton) the sky looks very dark so I guess change is on the way. (My basic take on a now cast). Lol

[A.J]

I don't expect any electrical activity to make much, if any roads inland unfortunetly but my God I hope I'm wrong as I need an excuse not to go to the pub tonight.

I'm having my cheeky stella's now mate, getting it out of my system now so I can appreciate the copious quantities of storms this evening!

[sherrie]

Someone else heard the thunder near tiverton so at least one rumble in devon then :-)

[AWD]

Anybody around the Exeter area report lightning?

Some strikes detected just off the coast there.