South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Coast]

Please use this thread for your regional weather discussions.

 

The previous thread can be found here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/

 

 

[Charlton Adam snow]

Whilst this great hot spell looks like its on its way out (for the immediate future), putting things into perspective, this has been pretty impressive when you look back:

Since 6th July 2013 somewhere in the UK has reached 28C or higher, a run of 18 days in a row now.

Looking back at data to 1959, the following periods where somewhere in the UK

reached 28C or more for 13 or more days in a row are:

16 days 2006 second half of July (including record UK July max)

13 days 2003 early Aug (including record UK max)

19 days 1997 Aug

17 days 1995 Aug

15 days 1995 late July/early Aug

15 days 1976 Aug

22 days 1976 late June/early July

20 days 1975 late July/Aug

No such 10 (or more) day spells like this occurred in the 1960s.

So this is the longest such period since August 1997 (whilst yesterday was also the hottest day of the year for England and UK as a whole.

 

Happy days!

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to the above posting, tomorrow is set to remain in the warm to very warm category for a few in the region. Jay Wynn mentioned further possibilities for Thunderstorms as the week progresses. I'm welcoming this less hot period by flinging open every possible opening within the house.

[Andy Bown]

Totally agree Charlton Adam, thank you for posting those stats.

Amusingly it's (IMO) the most humid day in a long time, far more than any during the heatwave! And the heatwave isn't really over as it's 27.8c here now thanks to sunny spells since mid morning.

[Man With Beard]

I think it's been a particularly significant heatwave in this region. I can't recall places such as Plymouth having so many hot days strung together. Here just to the north of Portsmouth I've recorded 27c + on 13 of the last 16 days and today's not far off at 26.6 so far. So much for adage 'cooler by the coasts', on many occasions this month it's been cooler away from the coast!

[gottolovethisweather]

Indeed. nice to see those stats. I'm under a continuous run of Air Temperatures maximums above 21c (70f) for twenty days and counting. During that time, I have had six maximums of 30c (86f) or above. I don't see this changing in the immediate future, yes cooler but still near average (21c - 23c) and I have a hunch the heat will return.

Edited July 23, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[lettice]

Suddenly gone from blue skies to grey skies

Are we expecting any rain?

Local forecasts not showing rain yet

Radar looks to be showing a little in the channel heading our way

 

Temp dropped from 24c to 22c too

[cobbettp]

Think its going to rain here shortly. Sure need it temp 27c

[AWD]

Aside from an isolated shower or two over the far SW and South Coast, tomorrow looks like quite a useable outdoors day with good sunny spells inbetween some cloud with temperatures still above average for many of us, perhaps even into the high mid 20c's around the Bristol area;

Not the most efficient breakdown really yet!

[MR EXTREMES]

Aside from an isolated shower or two over the far SW and South Coast, tomorrow looks like quite a useable outdoors day with good sunny spells inbetween some cloud with temperatures still above average for many of us, perhaps even into the high mid 20c's around the Bristol area;

image.jpg

Not the most efficient breakdown really yet!

indeed long sweaty nights but wheres the thunder none in sight frustrated indeed.

[AWD]

indeed long sweaty nights but wheres the thunder none in sight frustrated indeed.

It was battering Bristol last night.

[MP-R]

Fingers crossed for some surface-based thunderstorms in the next week. Last night's elevated ones were absolutely awesome but very tricky to film as there was no real lightning as such, just bright flashes and lots of less bright flashes. Good loud thunder though.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm still waiting ... Owt from Frenchies for Southern Central tonight? ...

[jtay]

I'm still waiting ... Owt from Frenchies for Southern Central tonight? ...

 

Can't see anything in this afternoon's ouput, but then yesterday evening's excitement wasn't forecast.On the flip side today was supposed to be accompanied by four scary men on horseback, but apart from a line of heavy showers first thing, that was a bust.I've taken to just keeping an eye on the sky.

Edited July 23, 2013 by jtay

[AWD]

Ok, I think I've found a sniffle of something for the South West (especially Devon & Cornwall) tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Now, I haven't seem no one else talk of this potential yet, so I'm reluctant to stick my neck out too much, but a lot of high res models suggest the potential for some heavy rainfall with isolated thundery activity at this stage (confidence low on thundery activity currently, I may ramp it up more if it gains further support).

I'm not expecting nothing like what Bristol got last night, I want to make that very clear. There is something though to watch, more for areas of the South West that have had very little so far. There are timing differences between the model output currently, so I can't be no more specific than 20:00 tomorrow evening until 08:00 Thursday morning at this stage.

Here we go. The Meto invent model shows some heavy PPN moving into the South West at 22:00 tomorrow;

This also being shown my the high res WRF-NMM model, albeit a bit later on;

And again by the NAE model, albeit not as intense as the other two;

So some sort of agreement, albeit with timing differences, of some rainfall approaching the South West tomorrow night then, some output suggesting some rather notable rainfall too. Will it be thundery though? Well, that's a lot more difficult to say at this stage but my feeling currently is not very much. Isolated thundery activity over Devon & Cornwall is possible, but based on model output alone, I can't see no more than that yet. Hopefully this changes or even better, I'm just plain wrong.

There is small amounts of CAPE to the far South West tomorrow night, but most stays weak and off shore according to the WRF-NMM;

The GFS does show a little more promise though;

The GFS also shows very humid and moist air still over the South West at this time, shown by the Wet Bulb advection and moisture layer;

However, shear and lapse rates are relatively weak;

I wonder if we can pull some surface CAPE inland though?

Both the GFS and WRF-NMM do show some strong vorticity though, which if nothing else, is a recipe for some very heavy rainfall developments;

To put it simply then, the GFS model highlighting where the area in question is, and also the isolated nature of it currently;

So something to watch, especially those in Devon & Cornwall. Worth noting that many of the charts above will be updating within the next few hours, so I'll keep an eye out for any changes or disappearances through this evening. We will see anyway, all educated speculation of course.

[Erbyskerby]

Thanks for that great analysis AWD - funnily enough I saw those images when I was flicking through the radar part of the meto app. My garden could do with a bit of a drink!

Has started to drizzle here but has been overcast most of the day. Still warm around 23ish.

Would love some atmospheric fireworks but the reports from others are keeping me going for time being.

Thanks AWD for taking the time to post.

[Andy Bown]

A 4c drop in the last hour, from 28.1c to 24.1c and the only notable change is bright sunshine as opposed to hazier sunshine so I guess a front (extremely weak in this area!) of sorts has moved through.

[Bristawl Si]

A beautiful late afternoon here. Maybe the breakdown is over, so just a blip.

[windseeker]

Not had any rain here in Basingstoke for weeks now, garden opening up into large cracks. don't know what happen to all these storms, not a sniff of one round here.

Sun beating down still 23deg on weather station

[Dean E]

Evening!

After looking through various models. This to me doesn't really seem much of a break down as the models predicted. Like Bristle Boy said, its appears to be more of a blip. Temperatures aren't as high as they were, it has cooled a little, but now humidity is high. Something we've not really had during the last few weeks. Areas in the south (including myself) have no had any rain for 21 days now. Sadly wasn't lucky enough to catch any of the thunderstorms of recent days, which was a shame, but since this heatwave isn't really over, I'm not so bothered for now.

 

Bring on the next 'Breakdown' 

 

SM

[littlemissy]

Yes ,it has been very humid today here in Wellington .Very intense this afternoon and I thought at about 17.30 as a very large grey expanse of cloud appeared that we might get a rumble or two ..................however the windpicked up and that was it .Sun out ,cooler, breezier and blue skies.

[MrNooo]

Just took the hund for a walk, things are stirring upwind and to my west, was calm with blue sky, now have a noticeable breeze, some serious looking clouds downwind (I can see the top of them) building quickly

[rich1974]

Not had any rain here in Basingstoke for weeks now, garden opening up into large cracks. don't know what happen to all these storms, not a sniff of one round here.Sun beating down still 23deg on weather station

Totally agree, not a drop of rain here...nothing!!! Just a waste of time getting excited about things these days, think the problem is the internet, don't get me wrong I love this site but we all get to excited about what's going to happen and then when it doesn't it's a huge disappointment, all those chart readings look wonderful but in the end in truth they never end up as good as what they did at the start, i'll be sticking to cloud watching from now on, as for the BBC and others they always make the outcome of these bad weather events look worse than they tend to be, back side covering I guess, please don't shoot me down guy/girls on here, just my thoughts.

[AWD]

Further to my earlier post, tomorrow night continues to suggest some heavy rainfall possible over South West England, Devon & Cornwall in particular. EC Det also shows timid tonight;

Any thundery element to it looks minimal, if any, after tonight's 12z runs. But perhaps some useful rainfall for the South West? Apart from that, it's a typical sun/cloud/warm 48 hours ahead. Not much else to say really.

[Iggy912]

Garden certainly appreciated this mornings downpour but even though fast and furious, the moisture burned off within moments! Couple of nice rumbles and a power outage at work (and the next village), for half an hour. Fan went off and under a tin roof upstairs... phew!

Back home and a quick stroll alongside the river to inhale some lovely Thames air and I noticed one of the large willows has shed a huge limb... right over the footpath near moorings! Despite being by water on the meadows, the trees are thirsty too!

Here's a quick tip from my 16 year old son, George... open the loft hatch to allow the warm air up a level allowing you fresher air from the ground level! Genius in the making!

Sleep well, all.