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August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition

Roger J Smith
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 17.2C will be a big drop for us tomorrow as today is cold here.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Today's minimum is 12.7C, while maxima were above 20C, so perhaps falling back to 17.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

17.5C to the 11th (17.2)

17.3C to the 12th (15.0)

17.1C to the 13th (15.4)

17.0C to the 14th (15.9)

17.1C to the 15th (18.1)

17.2C to the 16th (18.4)

17.3C to the 17th (18.5)

 

At this stage, I'd say guesses above 18.5C or below 15.5C could be ruled out, while between 18.0 and 18.5C and 16.0 and 15.5C look quite unlikely, but still have a small chance.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Today's minimum is 9.4C, while maxima look like reaching over 19C, so a drop back to 17.0C is likely on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

16.9C to the 14th (16.5)

17.1C to the 15th (19.5)

17.2C to the 16th (19.0)

17.2C to the 17th (17.2)

17.2C to the 18th (17.7)

17.1C to the 19th (14.6)

17.0C to the 20th (15.8]

 

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Today's minimum is 9.4C, while maxima look like reaching over 19C, so a drop back to 17.0C is likely on tomorrow's update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

16.9C to the 14th (16.5)

17.1C to the 15th (19.5)

17.2C to the 16th (19.0)

17.2C to the 17th (17.2)

17.2C to the 18th (17.7)

17.1C to the 19th (14.6)

17.0C to the 20th (15.8]

Somewhere between 17c and 17.5c after corrections?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Bloody hell, I might land up winning the competition this month with my guess of 17.0c

I'm starting to panic now, too; mine was 17.1!Posted Image

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Depends on which average you are talking. If its 61-90 then I agree probably not, but under 16.4 (81-10 av) then I think a reasonable chance. I am on holidays so not doing my regular updates, but last I looked we will be on around 16.8 mid month I think.

 

with 16.9 on the 13th and likely to drop tomorrow not a bad prediction I think!

 

Anyway GFS ensemble mean looks like taking us to around 16.5 by end of month before corrections, so still possibly less than the 81-10 average.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

Now i'm beginning to think that a finish above 17c is quite likely with no real breakdown in the warm settled weather indicated at the end of the month.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Now i'm beginning to think that a finish above 17c is quite likely with no real breakdown in the warm settled weather indicated at the end of the month.

 

When did the warm and settled conditions start!?Posted Image

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

16.8c to the 14th

 

With 16.78C to the 14th, in order to reach the following numbers before correction, we need to average

 

19.0C/day to reach 18.0C

17.2C/day to reach 17.0C

16.1C/day to reach 16.4C (81-10 average)

15.4C/day to reach 16.0C

 

With the next 8 days averaging about 18.5C on the 06z GFS (CET of 17.4C to the 22nd), I think we can effectively rule out anything below 16.0C, and put 18.0C as the likely roof after corrections.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

With 16.78C to the 14th, in order to reach the following numbers before correction, we need to average

 

19.0C/day to reach 18.0C

17.2C/day to reach 17.0C

16.1C/day to reach 16.4C (81-10 average)

15.4C/day to reach 16.0C

 

With the next 8 days averaging about 18.5C on the 06z GFS (CET of 17.4C to the 22nd), I think we can effectively rule out anything below 16.0C, and put 18.0C as the likely roof after corrections.

 

Haven't been following all the runs but from the 12z I can't see an 18.5 average over the next 8 days - closer to 17 average for that period from what I can see as a few cooler days in there.(18th-20th).

 

Looking at the GFS 12Z ensemble mean it would take it to around 16.5 by the end of month.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

17.0c to the 15th

 

Looks to me to be heading something like this (based on GFS 6z ensemble mean)

 

16th 17.1 (18.0)

17th 17.0 (16.0)

18th 16.9 (16.0)

19th 16.8 (14.5)

20th 16.8 (16.0)

21st 16.8 (17.0)

then rising to 16.9 around 25th

before falling at the end of month to around 16.6.

 

Generally its showing quite low minimums during the high keeping the mean from going too high,

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Minimum today of 15.3C, with maxima close to 23C, so an increase tomorrow to 17.1C is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

17.0C to the 17th (15.6)

17.0C to the 18th (17.5)

16.9C to the 19th (15.5)

16.9C to the 20th (16.3)

17.0C to the 21st (18.7)

17.1C to the 22nd (19.4)

17.3C to the 23rd (20.8]

 

 

An impressive difference between the op run and the ensemble mean.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

17.0c to the 16th

Near miss on the 17.1 with it at 17.05.

 

Anyway GFS 6z ensemble mean looks something like

17th 17.0 (16.25)

18th 17.0 (16.5)

19th 16.9 (16.25)

20th 16.9 (16.75)

21st 17.0 (18.0)

22nd 17.0 (18.0)

23rd 17.1 (19.0)

24th 17.2 (19.5)

25th 17.2 (18.0)

26th 17.2 (17.0)

28th 17.1 (15.5)

29th 17.1 (15.0)

30th 17.0 (15.5)

31st 16.9 (15.0)

 

So a bit of a jump for the final value since yesterday (from 16.6) as it has firmed on warmer days in 22nd- 26th.

 

So its looking like a final value in the range of 16.5 - 17.8 before corrections.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

17.0c to the 17th

 

Taking the met forecasts to 5 days then the GFS 6z ensemble mean after that gives

 

18th 16.9 (16.5)

19th 16.9 (16.4)

20th 16.9 (16.6)

21st 16.9 (17.6)

22nd 17.0 (18.0)

23rd 17.0 (18.5)

24th 17.1 (18.5)

25th 17.1 (17.0)

26th 17.1 (16.5)

27th 17.0 (16.0)

28th  17.0 (15.5)

29th 16.9 (15.0)

30th 16.8 (14.5)

31st 16.8 (14.5)

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