Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[summer blizzard]

 

GFS6z is summer perfection.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z looks very acceptable through the high resolution run to T+192 hours with a lot of warm and sunny weather and just a scattering of heavy showers with thunder, the exception is rain developing in the southwest of the uk tomorrow and monday which looks very wet and rather cool with pulses of heavy rain pushing northeastwards across england and wales, however, on the 6z, the southeast stays fine and bright and is therefore pleasantly warm with temperatures around 23 celsius, but in the persistent rain nearer 15-18c, further north also looks like missing the frontal rain but having scattered showers instead, then during tuesday and midweek it warms up, especially for the southeastern half of england with mid 20's celsius and nudging into the low 80's F for the southeast, by the second half of next week, most of the south of the uk look drier and sunnier with just the odd shower and rather higher pressure whereas the north of britain look more changeable with rain interspersed with sunshine and showers and average temperatures. Low res is typical gfs default to zonal and shows a slide into generally cooler and unsettled weather but the southeast still having a lot of dry and bright weather between depressions and temperatures just into the low 70's F but I would say, take the low res with a pinch of salt, high res ( reliable-semi reliable) looks on the warm side with lots of sunshine and a risk of a few heavy showers apart from soggy monday.

[Scorcher]

 

GFS6z is summer perfection.

 

 

Almost as perfect for you as this winter chart was for me- 

Edited August 3, 2013 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

 

GFS6z is summer perfection.

And it's 12 days away nuff said.

Edited August 3, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

We go from an early Autumn to summer perfection in just a couple of runs!

 

I think it's best, as theknowledgeables tell us - stick to the Ensembles.

[johnholmes]

And it's 12 days away nuff said.

It may well have overdone the temperature levels at 500mb but the overall idea of the flow, upper and surface NOT being off the continent or even Biscay is about right with the Azores high where its name implies.

[J10]

Wouldn't mind a return to North Westerlies, better than South Westerlies IMO. (although not as good as Easterlies)

 

Given the Mdeium Term output with the Azores High making a re-appearence, the chance of NW winds is increasing again.

[Scorcher]

Wouldn't mind a return to North Westerlies, better than South Westerlies IMO. (although not as good as Easterlies)

 

Given the Mdeium Term output with the Azores High making a re-appearence, the chance of NW winds is increasing again.

 

We don't want northwesterlies around here, it's got to be the worst direction for NW England in summer (or at any time of year in my opinion). We have little shelter here so it's often cool and windy, bring me a southwesterly any day! But yes it does look like we might get a spell of them unfortunately.

[Frosty.]

We don't want northwesterlies around here, it's got to be the worst direction for NW England in summer (or at any time of year in my opinion). We have little shelter here so it's often cool and windy, bring me a southwesterly any day! But yes it does look like we might get a spell of them unfortunately.

Agreed but there is nothing wrong with bright and breezy and fresher after all the heat and stifling sultry weather recently, a nw'ly is a good direction for excellent visibility and areas with shelter from a nw'ly can escape the showers too, if it happens, I can think of worse weather.

[Frosty.]

Another pleasantly warm Gfs 12z run in the high res with a few very warm days next week towards the southeast and pretty warm across other areas too at times, low 20's at least and mid 20's celsius on some days and high 20's for a few days in the southeast so another week of mainly summery weather as far as temperatures go, the weather itself looks like sunshine and heavy, slow moving inland showers for most of the uk for most of next week apart from monday, monday looks dull and wet with the rain only slowly clearing the mainland later in the day and some areas could have as much as 50-75 mm and a general 25 mm so a cool, soggy miserable monday but then brighter and showery and warmer with a very slack pattern spanning the midweek period and also trending drier in the south as weak ridging from the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds in across the south of the uk for a few days, it's clear the ecm 00z op and ecm 00z mean were more bullish about the pressure rise than the gfs but time will tell. Once again the gfs in low res eventually brings cooler oceanic air southeastwards across all areas but the southeast continues to look least affected by these FI changes.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Almost as perfect for you as this winter chart was for me- 

I actually remember how that felt too ! People would've thought it was the Costa Del Sol it was that mild. 

Overall, the weather looks to be going into rest mode from after Monday. Plain old boring by the looks of things... zzzz!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z op run bears more than a passing resemblance to the Gfs 12z high res with weaker ridging than the 00z showed and a trough swinging down from the northwest towards the end of the run (shown on the T+216 hours thickness chart) but the main weather type next week is for sunny starts giving way to heavy thundery showers under sluggish shallow trough conditions which are ripe for intense showery weather but with warm sunny spells and temperatures in the low to mid 20's celsius for most of next week, with the exception of monday which looks overcast with periods of heavy rain spreading northeast across england, wales and later for southern & eastern scotland, despite the cool temperatures on monday, it will probably feel quite muggy as warmer uppers (850's) will be pushing northeast along with the mass of rain, there is a risk of local flooding in places due to the persistence and torrential nature of the rain across the likes of cumbria and south pennines regions, to name but a few. So, overall, it will at least feel like summer despite the washout on monday and for storm enthusiasts, lots more chances for thundery showers and then later next week it still looks drier and sunnier across more southern areas for a few days at least.

Edited August 3, 2013 by Frosty039

[dec10snow]

Okay, taking a look through recent posts we seem to be bringing in some higher pressure... But I would still like to pose a question, as it was seemingly ignored in my regional thread.......

Could someone be kind enough to give me some info on the longer range outlook... More on the aspect of storms! As I've been out the country for the past couple of weeks and have missed the storms to hit the SW and more importantly, Somerset!! So is there any signs of storms coming back, or is high pressure going to dominate?

Thank you guys!

Oh, I also appreciate the difficulty of forecasting long range, but a general theme/idea would be good... Because I really want a thunderstorm!!

Edited August 3, 2013 by dec10snow
Better?

[mushymanrob]

Okay, taking a look through recent posts we seem to be bringing in some higher pressure... But I would still like to pose a question, as it was seemingly ignored in my regional thread....... Could someone be kind enough to give me some info on the longer range outlook... More on the aspect of storms! As I've been out the country for the past couple of weeks and have missed the storms to hit the SW and more importantly, Somerset!! So is there any signs of storms coming back, or is high pressure going to dominate? Thank you guys! :)Oh, I also appreciate the difficulty of forecasting long range, but a general theme/idea would be good... Because I really want a thunderstorm!!

with the general airflow off the atlantic for the forseeable im afraid theres not much hope of storms.

[dec10snow]

with the general airflow off the atlantic for the forseeable im afraid theres not much hope of storms.

I feared that may be the answer, thanks for your reply though

[Tim Bland]

Thundery showers are possible from an Atlantic flow but not the plume type storms we have seen

[Frosty.]

with the general airflow off the atlantic for the forseeable im afraid theres not much hope of storms.

Plenty of heavy slow moving showers with a risk of thunder at least due to a slack pattern and shallow trough influence combined with warm sunny periods.

[Evening thunder]

There's still some risk of some storms next week perhaps, for example Monday:

and Wednesday:

 

 

Minimal risk in the west too tomorrow on the GFS, and some other days next week.

 

Purely hypothetical but I reckon charts like at the end of the GFS and ECM runs this evening could give thunder in places too, with 'thundery shower' days

For example: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130803/12/336/ukcapeli.png from this chart http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130803/12/336/h850t850eu.png

 

and http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130803/12/360/ukcapeli.png from http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130803/12/360/h850t850eu.png

 

I reckon the ECM would give similar too http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

 

However we need the right types of set up, and they are not that likely to be strong/active storms like plumes and warmer air masses recently can give.

Edited August 3, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Frosty.]

Thundery showers are possible from an Atlantic flow but not the plume type storms we have seen

Exactly

[mushymanrob]

Thundery showers are possible from an Atlantic flow but not the plume type storms we have seen

true, but the question related to storms, not showers. alot will be determined by pressure to, with the azh expected to try to ridge in i doubt there will be much chance of thunder from suppressed pressure. regional variations apply of course, the nw more prone to thundery showers.either way, i dont think there will be much in the way of thundery showers and practically no chance of storms.if some senior forcaster disagrees then all be happy to be corrected. Edited August 3, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

true, but the question related to storms, not showers. alot will be determined by pressure to, with the azh expected to try to ridge in i doubt there will be much chance of thunder from suppressed pressure. regional variations apply of course, the nw more prone to thundery showers.either way, i dont think there will be much in the way of thundery showers and practically no chance of storms.if some senior forcaster disagrees then all be happy to be corrected.

The gfs ppn charts have shown widespread clusters of showers for next tues, wed and thurs and they look heavy, the sluggish pattern next week should generate some lively weather.

[dec10snow]

Thank you for the answers guys, I'm back tomorrow, so it's then onwards! I realised it would be unlikely to have the same sort of storms as recently due to the setup currently changing, but a nice thunderstorm would do me.... Though I would prefer a stronger one!

[Frosty.]

Quite a pleasing Gfs 00z this morning and not just in the high res either, FI has improved with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging across the southern half of the uk through the low res which is a big upgrade on yesterday, the cool unsettled weather is even further back at the end of FI. Looking at the coming week in more detail, today looks fine and warm in the east and southeast with sunny periods but across the southwest it will be clouding over and sporadic outbreaks of rain will be spreading northeastwards across southwestern britain, eventually reaching northwest england, scotland and n.ireland look brighter with sunny spells and scattered showers. Tonight, a mass of heavy rain will be pushing northeastwards across england and wales with torrential downpours and a risk of local flooding, this rain looks like persisting for most of tomorrow making it a dismal day but there will be exceptions, the far southeast looks like being fine and warm with sunny spells, just like today and for n.i and scotland it looks bright with a few showers. Tuesday looks a much better day, especially for the eastern half of england with sunny spells and mainly dry weather but some showers feeding into western areas, the midweek period shows a very slack weather pattern with shallow trough influence which means sunny starts giving way to heavy showers with a risk of thunder, later in the week, a strong ridge of high pressure extends across southern britain with the showers dying out and long sunny periods with light winds, northern britain continuing changeable with rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. As for temperatures, warm in central and eastern areas today, 23-25 celsius, nearer 19-21c further north and west, tomorrow it looks like mid to high teens in all the persistent rain but feeling a bit muggy, from tuesday it's warm again for the southern half of the uk and especially for the south/se with mid 20's celsius and low 80's F at times for the southeast, northern britain nearer average but warmer at times and next weekend is looking good for the south on this run with high pressure in control.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

The gfs ppn charts have shown widespread clusters of showers for next tues, wed and thurs and they look heavy, the sluggish pattern next week should generate some lively weather.

 

absolutely, but taking the questioneers location into account, im not so sure they are in the best place to benefit from any homegrown showers that grow into something big. and my initial reply said "theres not much hope".. not "theres no hope".

 

of course theres the old problem of what is a thunderstorm, and what is a thundery shower, i guess there are blurred lines between the two and alot is down to interpretation. for me, id suggest that at least  90% of storms come from a continental/southern scource, but that is what ive experienced here, it might well be different in other locations..

 

i cant see much to get hopeful for in this mornings runs (for heat seekers). the ecm and gfs get a mobile theme going by later on this week, and theres little sign of that changing. the anomaly charts suggest a trough to our north, a strong azh and jet streaming across us or northern areas. the azh tries to ridge in on several occassions but atm is expected to collapse as the next system moves in.

 

after a sluggish, rather wet at times , few days, nice in any sun, a pretty bog standard summer looks to be the theme for dare i say...the remainder of the summer (end of aug). of course a bog standard summer isnt bad, much better then last year, and southern and southeastern areas will fayre best with the northwest being cooler, wetter and windier.

 

we can hope that one of those azh ridges builds across us, doesnt collapse, and delivers a last (?) chance of a settled sunny spell, and indeed this is a possibility... but not in the forseeable, unfortunately.

Edited August 4, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Mark Parsons]

absolutely, but taking the questioneers location into account, im not so sure they are in the best place to benefit from any homegrown showers that grow into something big. and my initial reply said "theres not much hope".. not "theres no hope".

 

of course theres the old problem of what is a thunderstorm, and what is a thundery shower, i guess there are blurred lines between the two and alot is down to interpretation. for me, id suggest that at least  90% of storms come from a continental/southern scource, but that is what ive experienced here, it might well be different in other locations..

 

i cant see much to get hopeful for in this mornings runs (for heat seekers). the ecm and gfs get a mobile theme going by later on this week, and theres little sign of that changing. the anomaly charts suggest a trough to our north, a strong azh and jet streaming across us or northern areas. the azh tries to ridge in on several occassions but atm is expected to collapse as the next system moves in.

 

after a sluggish, rather wet at times , few days, nice in any sun, a pretty bog standard summer looks to be the theme for dare i say...the remainder of the summer (end of aug). of course a bog standard summer isnt bad, much better then last year, and southern and southeastern areas will fayre best with the northwest being cooler, wetter and windier.

 

we can hope that one of those azh ridges builds across us, doesnt collapse, and delivers a last (?) chance of a settled sunny spell, and indeed this is a possibility... but not in the forseeable, unfortunately.

 

 

 

I think the above just about sums up what Frosty is saying but with a more negative twist rather than a positive one, as ever it is down to interpretation as to what you can expect from the models. The models are showing some average summer weather particularly in the south which is a bonus compared to previous summers.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Mark Parsons