Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Timmytour]

The potential for some relatively chilly weather being shown in 13 days time by the models.

And as I sit here sweltering, I am reminded that, on the first page of the previous thread, started some 13 days ago, today was being talked about in a similar vein :-)

[MP-R]

As there's nothing very inspiring in any of the models this evening I'll make it brief. It looks as though today was a one hit wonder and from tomorrow it becomes much more changeable but with temperatures still around average or slightly above in the southeast so not feeling too bad. It's also looking a tad better for next weekend on the current GFS and ECM for Bristol's Balloon Fiesta - the windy northwesterly is replaced with a calmer westerly. FI has also brought the influence of low pressure further north quite considerably so all is not lost, certainly not for the southern half of the UK anyway. The only issue I see is cloud amounts - many areas might end up with rather a lot of it, especially in the west - from an IMBY perspective sun is the most important thing for me in summer, not high temperatures.

 

Let's see where tomorrow's runs take us, further into autumn or a more moderate continuation of summer.

[draztik]

The potential for some relatively chilly weather being shown in 13 days time by the models.And as I sit here sweltering, I am reminded that, on the first page of the previous thread, started some 13 days ago, today was being talked about in a similar vein :-)

spare a thought for those living in Scotland and NI who saw temps of 17C and persistent rain for most of the day. I think there is a big difference with what the models are showing currently than a couple of weeks ago.. Theyre showing a jet being fired up(something that hasn't happened for a while) and seemingly we are likely to be on the wrong side. The long range ensembles all show low pressure anchored close to our shores. As for FI, ill say this, they have all been rather steady and somewhat consistent the last few days with showing inclement weather conditions... The ecm showed a deep low a couple of days ago, and now the gfs is showing it.. The models obviously are picking up signals, somewhere, to validate the output! The NOAA 8-14 anomaly charts also favour low pressure over the UK. It all paints a picture, but of course its open to interpretation. Edited August 1, 2013 by draztik

[mushymanrob]

I believe there is general acceptance of something cooler in the next week or so Mushy.

I think responses to your earlier view were prompted by the "Autumnal" word which gives the impression of chilly,windy and damp weather.

This looks unlikely, based on todays data, with the temperatures around the early August average in a slack flow and relatively small amounts of precipitation-much of it in showery form where it appears..

 

Anyway i think you have made your views clear now so let;s move on.

 

i suppose 'autumnal' might have given the wrong impression, obviously i wasnt referring to real autumn weather but something heading towards it... as in chilly mornings (i notice the early morning air, working outdoors), a brisk northwesterly (as was on the charts yesterday morn) and with us being on the wrong side of the 5c upper id have thought that we would struggle to get upper teens temps (although the southeast wouldnt be too bad)

 

however, this morning the models arent so progressive in bringing on a deep atlantic trough for mid month... however...

 

 

if im reading this correctly, wouldnt this indicate pretty much the synoptics i discribed? low to our north, the azh ridging with the high west of greenland ? locking us in cool pm air scourced from the north?

Edited August 2, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Paul]

Ok, we're going to try something new today  - this thread is going to 100% without personal point scoring or snide comments aimed at other members. We're going to achieve this with a pretty simple setup - if your post contains any of the above (or similar) then without further warning we'll remove your ability to post into here. There are just a handful of people this post applies to really, so the majority can safely ignore it and do so in the knowledge that their model thread viewing will be much more model related and much less ego/sniping related from here on in..

 

Thanks

 

Paul

 

This is still ongoing and based on some of the posts over the last 24 hours there are a handful who are pushing themselves ever closer to the exit door in here - please take heed...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows a mix of warm and average, the warm days are in the high res with some very warm days, especially for the southeast in the week ahead but generally the temperatures are high teens celsius for scotland and n.ireland and low 20's celsius for the southern half of the uk, occasionally mid 20's, close to 80f in the southeastern half of england. The weather pattern for the next week or so looks very slack and slow moving with shallow troughs drifting around but also weak ridging, with rather stronger ridging across the south later next week, the weather itself generally looks like a mixture of sunshine and scattered heavy and slow moving showers with a risk of thunder and occasional pulses of heavy rain spreading from southwest to northeast, as next monday shows for example, a few mainly dry days expected with long sunny spells and light winds but northwest britain looks like being peppered with showers for most of the time, the driest, brightest and warmest spells for the south/se. Through FI it looks like the PFJ will be sliding further south which means the uk will be treading a fine line between a full blown atlantic breakdown and azores/atlantic ridging building towards the south of the uk but overall it's normal summer weather with some good and some bad, trending towards average.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[shedhead]

Well this time yesterday I described the model output as a dogs breakfast, but clearly the dog didn't eat it, because it's still there this morning.  Difficult to pick anything of substance out of any run, but once again my overriding thought is very average looking fayre in the short/medium term, with an increasing likelihood that the Atlantic will fire up as we move into the middle third of the month. Still absolutely nothing to suggest a return to the fine, settled weather most of us enjoyed in July, but equally still no June 2012 look the charts either...at least not yet!! 

Edited August 2, 2013 by shedhead

[Northern Sky]

It always seems to me that the GFS powers through the Atlantic as soon as high res ends. I wonder if there is any particular reason for this and whether the programming could be tweaked to correct this?

[Gordon Webb]

It always seems to me that the GFS powers through the Atlantic as soon as high res ends. I wonder if there is any particular reason for this and whether the programming could be tweaked to correct this?

 

perhaps it likes to end on a downbeat note

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well this time yesterday I described the model output as a dogs breakfast, but clearly the dog didn't eat it, because it's still there this morning.  Difficult to pick anything of substance out of any run, but once again my overriding thought is very average looking fayre in the short/medium term, with an increasing likelihood that the Atlantic will fire up as we move into the middle third of the month. Still absolutely nothing to suggest a return to the fine, settled weather most of us enjoyed in July, but equally still no June 2012 look the charts either...at least not yet!! 

Best described as changeable with the best conditions reserved for the SE shed,the further north and west you go,the more unsettled.

Bit boring really,no heawave,no washout..

[Frosty.]

It always seems to me that the GFS powers through the Atlantic as soon as high res ends. I wonder if there is any particular reason for this and whether the programming could be tweaked to correct this?

Steve murr thinks the gfs model has an eastward bias which I agree with, it would explain why the gfs frequently wants to push the pattern further east, it's at it's best when there is raging zoneality but when the pattern is sluggish like now, it wants to get rid of it asap but doesn't know how.

[shedhead]

Steve murr thinks the gfs model has an eastward bias which I agree with, it would explain why the gfs frequently wants to push the pattern further east, it's at it's best when there is raging zoneality but when the pattern is sluggish like now, it wants to get rid of it asap but doesn't know how.

Eastward bias? How many times in Winter do we see GFS prog N plunges over us in the 144-192hr range, only to correct them ever eastward when they come into the reliable, sometimes as far east as the Baltic? If anything it has a westward bias imo.

Edited August 2, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

Steve murr thinks the gfs model has an eastward bias which I agree with, it would explain why the gfs frequently wants to push the pattern further east, it's at it's best when there is raging zoneality but when the pattern is sluggish like now, it wants to get rid of it asap but doesn't know how.

I would say that recently in high resolution, the GFS has actually been the least progressive of the models. The ECM is the one chucking autumnal lows at us beyond day 5. GFS and UKMO are the ones holding a slacker pattern.

GFS is terrible at handling blocking to our north east I will admit that.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

There are some encouraging signs from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the azores/atlantic anticyclone looks like it's getting closer and extending a weak ridge across the south at least, further north it's areas of low pressure moving east from iceland that's calling the tune for northern britain in FI with the jet becoming aligned more towards wnw-ese with time, however, next week the pattern is slack with the uk under shallow trough conditions which suggests sunny periods and heavy, slow moving showers with rumbles of thunder and average temperatures, low 20's celsius but a little warmer and more humid than that the further south/se you are, closer to mid 20's celsius at times next week but beyond that, slipping down to low 20's with high teens celsius more likely for n.ireland & scotland as time goes on, but there is a chance of pressure rising from the southwest towards mid month.

[Northern Sky]

I would say that recently in high resolution, the GFS has actually been the least progressive of the models. The ECM is the one chucking autumnal lows at us beyond day 5. GFS and UKMO are the ones holding a slacker pattern.

GFS is terrible at handling blocking to our north east I will admit that.

Yes I agree with that. I've been following the models closely the last week or so as I'm going away to the Highlands next week and when I'm clicking through the run it always seems that when it gets to about 215hrs the lows start powering through - this seems to have been the case for the last week! I just wondered if there was something in particular that low resolution has difficulty in picking up and why that would be the case?

[shedhead]

Yes I agree with that. I've been following the models closely the last week or so as I'm going away to the Highlands next week and when I'm clicking through the run it always seems that when it gets to about 215hrs the lows start powering through - this seems to have been the case for the last week! I just wondered if there was something in particular that low resolution has difficulty in picking up and why that would be the case?

06 GFS suggests a localised ground frost for the Highlands as early as Weds....no trouble sleeping there by the look of things...

 

[mushymanrob]

It always seems to me that the GFS powers through the Atlantic as soon as high res ends. I wonder if there is any particular reason for this and whether the programming could be tweaked to correct this?

 

dont know, but the ecm @ t240 has another blast of cool  northwesterly air with us being between the 0c and 5c upper... it does hint though that the azores high might be trying to push towards us, so maybe we will have to go through a cool period (reletive) (there is still the best part of a week of average) before maybe a last stab at something hot and sunny might evolve... the gfs though at 240 had the jet flatlined straight through us, so no azh building there (that was the 00z, not seen the 06z)

[Frosty.]

 the ecm @ t240 has another blast of cool  northwesterly air with us being between the 0c and 5c upper...

Hardly a blast, temperatures would still be in the mid to high teens to low 20's celsius from north to south, a blast is what you get in winter.

[Lincstim]

Right last post for me regarding Saturdays weather

Would anybody mind giving me a quick written summary for Saturdays weather for scunny

(North lincs) so I can copy and paste on the forum regarding the festival I'm attending

Precipitation chart n temp pic would be lovely as well

Appreciate it

Many thanks

Tim x

Edited August 2, 2013 by Lincstim

[draztik]

If the mornings output is to verify, next week really doesn't look too bad. The meto have partly cloudy conditions for the north west thru much of the week, with little rain. After this period, it looks more uncertain. HP is always nearby, but still at this point, it doesn't look like it wants to position itself over the UK. So, probably a mixed bag until the middle of the month.

[NorthernRab]

06 GFS suggests a localised ground frost for the Highlands as early as Weds....no trouble sleeping there by the look of things...

 

 

I doubt that will happen to be honest, we all know how ambitious GFS can be with their overnight minima predictions during summer, not to mention the fact that such an occurrence would possibly be recording breaking and the set up isn't exactly conducive to tapping into the absolute coldest air available in the northern hemisphere for this time of the year. 

[mushymanrob]

Hardly a blast, temperatures would still be in the mid to high teens to low 20's celsius from north to south, a blast is what you get in winter.

 

i thought a blast was a short sharp spell of wind.... nowt to do with temps... the ecm @ t240 does suggest a strong northwesterly which under any cloud wont feel very warm, especially with sub 5c uppers... cant see 20c being reached mate

 

Edited August 2, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

i thought a blast was a short sharp spell of wind.... nowt to do with temps... the ecm @ t240 does suggest a strong northwesterly which under any cloud wont feel very warm, especially with sub 5c uppers... cant see 20c being reached mate

 

Recm2162.gif

20c across the far south I would think, high teens to mid teens further north, but it won't verify anyway so it's purely hypothetical, the ecm 00z ensemble mean doesn't buy it for a start.

[Tamara]

20c across the far south I would think, high teens to mid teens further north, but it won't verify anyway so it's purely hypothetical, the ecm 00z ensemble mean doesn't buy it for a start.

Yes, and as you say it is totally hypothetical.

 

Taking that ECM chart at face value though, then I think it could quite probably be an over amplified version of reality even if something similar does come to pass.  There is actually quite good agreement this morning across the models for a phase in the nearer term of low pressure just to the NW of Scotland slowly migrating a shallow trough over the UK and then to the NE of us into the early part of next week, and thereafter higher pressure to the west and south west ridging over southern UK. This sets up the distinct possibility of a rather N/S (or maybe NW/SE) split in weather conditions with the pattern flatter than the ECM suggests (and hence the NW'erly digging south like that probably unlikely)

Edited August 2, 2013 by Tamara Road

[mushymanrob]

20c across the far south I would think, high teens to mid teens further north, but it won't verify anyway so it's purely hypothetical, the ecm 00z ensemble mean doesn't buy it for a start.

 

yeah ill give you that one karl