Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hmmm, 50/50 for this more unsettled spell to come off. 

What I do think though, is that we will have a really active atlantic this coming Autumn. I think we could see gales such as them of October 2000 maybe. 

Sea temps are really quite up on what they should be to our SW, so more of a contrast in temperature will be present, meaning in my opinion, a much more active jet this Autumn. 

Edited July 30, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Lincstim]

Right so Saturday looks like temperatures of about 25 degrees in scunny with the possibility of light showers clearring as the day progresses. Amazing how many of the sites 5-7 day forecasts show different things (from no rain to rain all day to the odd afternoon shower)

Thanks for keeping me updated and please correct me if I'm wrong.

Hoping everything goes well for PARTY IN THE PINES music festival this Saturday (day/night)

[draztik]

gfs 18z taking a sharp turn towards the ecm output...the second plume that it saw in its earlier run is gone.

Edited July 30, 2013 by draztik

[Djdazzle]

gfs 18z taking a sharp turn towards the ecm output...the second plume that it saw in its earlier run is gone.

All in FI so not worth worrying about yet.

The models are struggling at the moment. Anything past this weekend is very uncertain.

[draztik]

All in FI so not worth worrying about yet.

The models are struggling at the moment. Anything past this weekend is very uncertain.

indeed, the way the models have been going recently anything is possible. But there is growing support for this pattern, with the 8-14 from NOAA, showing this (thanks John, for the links) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Edited July 30, 2013 by draztik

[Djdazzle]

it seems that the models are picking up a signal from somewhere regarding firing.up the jet stream. However, it has been mentioned on here that this seems unlikely with the current patterns.

[Captain Shortwave]

You could see where this run was heading even at 3 days out, the uppers on Saturday being shunted east a lot quicker with a flatter jet developing.

I will say now that the day 9-10 charts from the ECM won't verify because either the models will drop the idea all together, or by the time we get that far the Atlantic steamrollering would have already occurred.

Edited July 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

All in FI so not worth worrying about yet.The models are struggling at the moment. Anything past this weekend is very uncertain.

I think this 'models are struggling' phrase is becoming a little over used.  The 18GFS pretty much concurs with the 12 ECM in so much as next weeks pattern is essentially unsettled, with LP never far from our shores.

 

IF it's right with it's evolution of moving LP northeastwards early next week there is a good chance that winds will swing into a northely quarter and temps will slip back below the seasonal average for everyone.  Only this morning however we were looking a very different set up with heat and humidity pumping north from France, so it's too early to say that it's latest evolution will be right, but this one does look rather more plausible.

Edited July 30, 2013 by shedhead

[Swave Snow]

Maybe pattern is resetting to the high pressure building over scandinavia that was shown on a few models a few days ago.  And just like in Winter when that happens albeit the rare occurrence that this is, the models make some strange outputs with no consistency, very erratic and signals a pattern shift.  Although if this is actually happening we will end up probably with another heatwave for August but fuelled by a different set up to what caused July's two different heats, the high over us and the southerly plume from last week.

 

Something to think about, given its appearance on the models last few days and the turbulent swings the models are now taking, and perhaps another perspective of how the models are behaving, or maybe not?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Right so Saturday looks like temperatures of about 25 degrees in scunny with the possibility of light showers clearring as the day progresses. Amazing how many of the sites 5-7 day forecasts show different things (from no rain to rain all day to the odd afternoon shower)

Thanks for keeping me updated and please correct me if I'm wrong.

Hoping everything goes well for PARTY IN THE PINES music festival this Saturday (day/night)

The Model Output Discussion thread will be getting  back to you about this late friday evening, with a few possible solutions but please don't get too upset if they go wrong. 

[Djdazzle]

I think this 'models are struggling' phrase is becoming a little over used.  The 18GFS pretty much concurs with the 12 ECM in so much as next weeks pattern is essentially unsettled, with LP never far from our shores. IF it's right with it's evolution of moving LP northeastwards early next week there is a good chance that winds will swing into a northely quarter and temps will slip back below the seasonal average for everyone.  Only this morning however we were looking a very different set up with heat and humidity pumping north from France, so it's too early to say that it's latest evolution will be right, but this one does look rather more plausible.

You have kind of contradicted yourself in that you refer to how different the models were this morning - surely this proves the point that they are struggling. The GFS 18z following the ECM 12z isn't particularly unusual anyway, and thus adds no more confidence to that scenario. If, by the end of tomorrow, all models are showing the same, then I will say that we are heading for a more unsettled pattern next week.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Lovely 0z gfs,predominantly dry and fairly warm throughout.

Not sure what to make of ukmo to be honest.

[Man With Beard]

The GFS ensemble has performed one of its infamous "flips" this morning. About 5C taken off the ensemble average for this time next week. Some runs now below average for temperature. Looking quite showery now Tuesday-Friday. 

Edited July 31, 2013 by rjbw

[Paul]

Ok, we're going to try something new today  - this thread is going to 100% without personal point scoring or snide comments aimed at other members. We're going to achieve this with a pretty simple setup - if your post contains any of the above (or similar) then without further warning we'll remove your ability to post into here. There are just a handful of people this post applies to really, so the majority can safely ignore it and do so in the knowledge that their model thread viewing will be much more model related and much less ego/sniping related from here on in..

 

Thanks

 

Paul

 

The above is ongoing, so please take heed..

[Frosty.]

The fax charts show the southeast hanging on to the hot & sultry air on friday with hazy sunshine but an increasing threat of storms, the rest of the uk looks like a mixture of sunshine and scattered heavy showers on friday with temperatures nearer the low 20's celsius but for the southeast and east anglia, it could be high 20's again, mid 80's F before the storms and heavy rain arrive, into the weekend, the south and especially southeast of england look warm with long sunny spells and lower humidity with temperatures in the low to mid 20's celsius but for most of the uk the weekend looks breezier with sunshine and showers and temperatures around average, sunday probably the better day in the north & west with less showers and more sunshine as pressure rises from the south, cool and showery across the far north only by then. As for thursday, a glorious hot and sunny day for england and wales with temperatures in the high 20's to low 30's celsius, 32 celsius 90f expected across the southeast on thursday but for scotland and n.ireland it looks dull and wet on thursday with average temps, friday looks better up there with sunshine and showers and temps nearer 22c, especially further east.

[Nick F]

00z ECM looking decidedly mobile and unsettled next week, probably in response to a more active jet moving east over the Atlantic from NE Canada which boots out the sluggish and more meridional flow that was hinted at. 

[Captain Shortwave]

There does seem to be a distinct lowering of pressure across the pole in the coming ten days. This does seem to be the trigger for the Atlantic to boot up. Thought it would be a little early in the year for the Polar vortex to start rebooting. I may be wrong here.

[Summer Sun]

00z London ensemble has for now dropped the Idea of a second plume next week this weeks heat remains on for a few days low 30's tomorrow high 20's on Friday for the london and south east area longer term average uppers remain

 

 

The same goes for the other ensembles warm (not as hot as the SE tomorrow and Friday) before temperature trend around average for the time of year

 

 

The ECM Birmingham monthly ensemble shows temperatures staying at or above average through-out  August

 

 

Given the night time lows and day time highs we get an average or above average mean

 

]

 

And finally rainfall remains pretty low till at least August 24th with just a slight above normal peak a week Friday

 

[Frosty.]

There does seem to be a distinct lowering of pressure across the pole in the coming ten days. This does seem to be the trigger for the Atlantic to boot up. Thought it would be a little early in the year for the Polar vortex to start rebooting. I may be wrong here.

I think we need edward to mash up the vortex again like he did last autumn.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

00z ECM looking decidedly mobile and unsettled next week, probably in response to a more active jet moving east over the Atlantic from NE Canada which boots out the sluggish and more meridional flow that was hinted at. 

Yes-a noticeable pattern change on offer from ECM 0z.

This model is certainly very keen to fire up the jet,ensembles will be interesting.

Looking like sunshine and showers regime through the weekend and if ECM is to be believed a bit of an unsettled spell thereafter with NW Britain bearing the brunt of depressions in our locale.

Definite shift over the last 24 hours to a more mobile setup but not a washout by any means.

[Nick F]

Definite shift over the last 24 hours to a more mobile setup but not a washout by any means.

 

Some of us, me included, were drawn in by the idea yesterday and the day before of the stagnant and meridional flow staying put with further shots of heat for the S and E into next week, but that idea seems to be ebbing away on this morning's model suite. 

 

Certainly as shift towards a more unsettled outlook next week, though I do hope ECM deterministic is being too progressive over introducing that cool and unsettled northwesterly flow.

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts, ECMWF-GFS both continue with the theme I posted last evening, that is of the trough becoming the main feature over the UK area. GFS is less keen than the EC version but they do now seem to support the NOAA idea.

link below

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Just how changeable/unsettled it is likely to become as we get into August, or overall how much lower the temperatures are going to be compared to the past month is not really clear. That kind of detail is for the synoptic 2x and 4x daily outputs once they have settled into this idea of a change from the July pattern.

[Yarmy]

At least the monster low from last night has disappeared.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013073012/ECM1-216.GIF?12

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013073100/ECM1-192.GIF?31-12

 

We still have a mass of very warm continental air to tap into, so no need to get disheartened yet, and as we've seen over the last few days it only takes minor tweaks in the distribution of pressure to bring it to us.

[shedhead]

Some of us, me included, were drawn in by the idea yesterday and the day before of the stagnant and meridional flow staying put with further shots of heat for the S and E into next week, but that idea seems to be ebbing away on this morning's model suite. 

 

Certainly as shift towards a more unsettled outlook next week, though I do hope ECM deterministic is being too progressive over introducing that cool and unsettled northwesterly flow.

Ditto, what a difference 24hrs makes though.  Once this brief plume passes quickly east the big 3 now all point towards a fairly mixed pattern, with rain or showers for all at times and temps never far from the seasonal average.  Whether the Jet fires up later in the period and takes us into a proper unsettled spell of weather remains to be seen, but with the mean trough set to move east the 500mb anom charts that JH has alluded to on many occasions recently look increasingly likely to verify.

 

So are we looking at game over for Summer? Probably a bit early to say that, but IF we get locked into a flatter, unsettled pattern it can be very difficult to break, with the Atlantic Hurricane season also then adding to the overall mix.

 

If nothing else, more interesting model watching times ahead.

Edited July 31, 2013 by shedhead

[Bobby]

The anomaly charts, ECMWF-GFS both continue with the theme I posted last evening, that is of the trough becoming the main feature over the UK area. GFS is less keen than the EC version but they do now seem to support the NOAA idea.

link below

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Just how changeable/unsettled it is likely to become as we get into August, or overall how much lower the temperatures are going to be compared to the past month is not really clear. That kind of detail is for the synoptic 2x and 4x daily outputs once they have settled into this idea of a change from the July pattern.

 

The NAEFS has been quite consistent in showing troughing over us going into mid-August, fair play to it. It seems the other models are coming around to the idea as well. Latest NAEFS seems to strengthen the troughing more than past runs

 

Day 11 anomalies NAEFS