Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[phil nw.]

Yes it's easy to glance at the shallow upper trough and think cool and unsettled.

In the slack flow there's still plenty of surface warmth to be had over the next few days.

Looking at the outputs low 20's C should be quite possible for much of England and Wales with high teens further north which are around the norm for early August.

Doubtless there will be showers scattered about over the next week but plenty of warmth too just not heatwave conditions that today and some of July produced.

Edited August 1, 2013 by phil nw.

[Tamara]

Yes it's easy to glance at the shallow upper trough and think cool and unsettled.

In the slack flow there's still plenty of surface warmth to be had over the next few days.

Doubtless there will be showers scattered about over the next week but plenty of warmth too just not heatwave conditions that today and some of July produced.

Yes, I think maybe a hint of that cut-off low suggestion appearing with the weak jet stream

[Mini tiger]

26's and 27's in the south on sunny days. We've been spoilt with 28-32 for a long while. Some of these autumnal look posts are on the pessimistic side. As you say a slack flow, with long hours of sunshine leads to good diurnal and surface heating with comfortable nights after midnight. No sign of temps being in the mod teens on any charts which I would consider to be more autumnal. Anyone know what and where today's maxima was recorded ?

[Djdazzle]

34.1C at Heathrow was today's maximum.

[Methuselah]

26's and 27's in the south on sunny days. We've been spoilt with 28-32 for a long while. Some of these autumnal look posts are on the pessimistic side. As you say a slack flow, with long hours of sunshine leads to good diurnal and surface heating with comfortable nights after midnight. No sign of temps being in the mod teens on any charts which I would consider to be more autumnal. Anyone know what and where today's maxima was recorded ?

Heathrow was 34.1...

[johnholmes]

oh ek... the gfs 12z is dire for summer/heat. a very autumnal look to it with cooler uppers and a northwesterly flow dominant. no azores high building on that run.

 

very autumnal look is a touch OTT unless the reference is to a comparison to the charts for most days over the last 30 days?

It would be expecting too much really would it not for the 'heat' many have experienced in the last few weeks to continue through August or am I being inrealistic?

The 12z GFS run does take temperatures down but not markedly, if we ignore the heights of today, until about the 10th of August.

Don't believe me then have a look at the charts on Net Wx that show Maximum temperatures at 15 and 1800 through to the date I suggested.

Edited August 1, 2013 by johnholmes

[Uncle_Barty]

Well gfs 12 and ukmo 12z build pressure across the uk again mid next week!!apart from tuesday it looks like the very warm temps across england and wales will continue!!typically 25/26 degrees which is brilliant!!and once again i shall say let this beauty of a summer continue!!

 

 

oh ek... the gfs 12z is dire for summer/heat. a very autumnal look to it with cooler uppers and a northwesterly flow dominant. no azores high building on that run.

 

 

So which is it???

 

No wonder newcomers get confused.....

[Frosty.]

Just to clear up any confusion about the Gfs 12z, the high res up to T+192 hours looks either average or warm across the southern half of the uk and occasionally very warm, eg, the next few days and then again during the middle of next week, the south also having the best of the dry and sunny weather but still a risk of scattered heavy showers at times, the most average conditions are reserved for n.ireland and scotland with spells of persistent rain interspersed by sunshine and showers, only northern scotland being cool at times but warmer days early in the period and the occasional warmer day here and there through next week, it's more like normal summer weather but with occasional very summery days (mainly across the southern half of the uk) through the next 8 days or so, it only turns more generally unsettled by the end of next week and that's outside the reliable timeframe, it's a very sluggish pattern for the next week or so with shallow troughs and weak ridges.

[DTHFCJ]

oh ek... the gfs 12z is dire for summer/heat. a very autumnal look to it with cooler uppers and a northwesterly flow dominant. no azores high building on that run.

 

i see where your coming from ref autumnal with a  north west flow .........................albeit 2 weeks away

 

Phil taken on board ,Mushy purely a joke

Edited August 1, 2013 by DTHFCJ

[phil nw.]

Please try and keep posts on topic.

If anyone wants to disagree with someones views on the models then please keep remarks objective and explain why or link charts rather than one line digs.

 

Thanks all.

[Frosty.]

Yes I think the 33.5 celsius is under threat in the southeast, could reach 34 celsius 93 f in a few favoured spots in the southeast corner.

 

A record breaking summer

OOH I was close then, what a stunning summer this is, whatever happens in the next 4 weeks won't change my view that this will be a summer to remember for years to come for all the right reasons, makes a welcome change.

[Captain Shortwave]

OOH I was close then, what a stunning summer this is, whatever happens in the next 4 weeks won't change my view that this will be a summer to remember for years to come for all the right reasons, makes a welcome change.

only 0.1C out, hang your head in shame 

ECM is again throwing an atlantic train wreck, against other output which suggests a slower and more complex pattern

OK it's not that bad, just very average with dry and damp days, temperatures at or a little below par.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

i see where your coming from ref autumnal with a  north west flow .........................albeit 2 weeks away:rofl:

this is the model discussion thread, the 12z clearly shows a gradual degradation of the upper air temps which will impact on surface temps. it matters not whether its two weeks away or two days away, if its shown on the models its eligible for discussion. id add that its not the first time northwesterlies have been depicted on the models, i posted two such charts only this morning. sorry fellow heat lovers, as i see it things are not looking hopefull. autumnal ott? the runs atm are suggesting things look closer to autumnal then hot summery. of course things can change, i hope they bloody well do! but my comments are made viewing the general outlook as things stand atm.

[Frosty.]

this is the model discussion thread, the 12z clearly shows a gradual degradation of the upper air temps which will impact on surface temps. it matters not whether its two weeks away or two days away, if its shown on the models its eligible for discussion.id add that its not the first time northwesterlies have been depicted on the models, i posted two such charts only this morning.sorry fellow heat lovers, as i see it things are not looking hopefull. autumnal ott? the runs atm are suggesting things look closer to autumnal then hot summery.of course things can change, i hope they bloody well do! but my comments are made viewing the general outlook as things stand atm.

Yes but the reliable timeframe looks average or above with some very warm days, especially for the south/se, it's summery, not autumnal, anything that happens after next week is very FI and therefore..u n r e l i a b l e.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a mixed bag of weather for the next 10 days, some warm and humid days, some cooler and fresher days, temps are up and down but nothing extreme, mainly either average or warm for the southern half of the uk and for scotland & n.ireland closer to average but slightly below at times in the far north, it becomes more mobile later next week compared to the gfs in the high res but there is not much difference really, some warm sunshine, some heavy showers with a risk of thunder and some breezier weather with more persistent rain, the rain more focused on the northwest of the uk, the south/se having the longest dry and sunnier spells and therefore, the highest temperatures, it's a return to normal summer weather with a few bumps in the road but also some good holiday weather sprinkled throughout.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

if fantasy  world  comes  off its  looking  a  bit wet underfoot  !!!

[mushymanrob]

Yes but the reliable timeframe looks average or above with some very warm days, especially for the south/se, it's summery, not autumnal, anything that happens after next week is very FI and therefore..u n r e l i a b l e.

maybe, but if its heat shown then everyone clicks the 'like' button... its ok to champion heat in fi but not anything else!i shouldnt not be chided for reading a less then favourable slant on what the data is showing us. the facts are that the warmth is being slowly eroded and the outlook into fi atm is not one i want! but atm its there, so im not being grumpy, thats what i see and nobody want heat more then me. i just cannot ramp something that atm isnt therr. i will reitterate though that things might change, im only commenting on todays data.

[phil nw.]

maybe, but if its heat shown then everyone clicks the 'like' button... its ok to champion heat in fi but not anything else!i shouldnt not be chided for reading a less then favourable slant on what the data is showing us.the facts are that the warmth is being slowly eroded and the outlook into fi atm is not one i want! but atm its there, so im not being grumpy, thats what i see and nobody want heat more then me. i just cannot ramp something that atm isnt therr.i will reitterate though that things might change, im only commenting on todays data.

I believe there is general acceptance of something cooler in the next week or so Mushy.

I think responses to your earlier view were prompted by the "Autumnal" word which gives the impression of chilly,windy and damp weather.

This looks unlikely, based on todays data, with the temperatures around the early August average in a slack flow and relatively small amounts of precipitation-much of it in showery form where it appears..

 

Anyway i think you have made your views clear now so let;s move on.

Edited August 1, 2013 by phil nw.

[draztik]

If the ecm is anything to go by, next week looks rather unsettled, and i see no charts from other models to offer confidence in a return to settled warm conditions. In fact, the jet stream is forecast to be south of the UK, into next week and beyond - which doesn't allow the Azores high to ridge north! The gsf ensembles are on point with the ecm, a showery/ wet week ahead, with average temperatures for most of its run.

I wouldn't call it autumnal for the London area and SE, but just average. However, the North West of the UK looks particularly below average.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

the precipitation charts illustrate this divide, with less rainfall for the south east.

Edited August 1, 2013 by draztik

[DTHFCJ]

If the ecm is anything to go by, next week looks rather unsettled, and i see no charts from other models to offer confidence in a return to settled warm conditions. In fact, the jet stream is forecast to be south of the UK, into next week and beyond - which doesn't allow the Azores high to ridge north! The gsf ensembles are on point with the ecm, a showery/ wet week ahead, with average temperatures for most of its run.

I wouldn't call it autumnal for the London area and SE, but just average. However, the North West of the UK looks particularly below average.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

the precipitation charts illustrate this divide, with less rainfall for the south east.

the precipitation charts you have posted there Draztik,tie in well with the Meto's 6-15 dayer,northwest/southeast split..

still i for one will not complain,really enjoyed this summer i know its not over yet,even though the charts are not fantastic some good days some bad days tbh after july's at times stunning conditions i can live with that

Edited August 1, 2013 by DTHFCJ

[Biggin]

If the ecm is anything to go by, next week looks rather unsettled, and i see no charts from other models to offer confidence in a return to settled warm conditions. In fact, the jet stream is forecast to be south of the UK, into next week and beyond - which doesn't allow the Azores high to ridge north! The gsf ensembles are on point with the ecm, a showery/ wet week ahead, with average temperatures for most of its run.

I wouldn't call it autumnal for the London area and SE, but just average. However, the North West of the UK looks particularly below average.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

the precipitation charts illustrate this divide, with less rainfall for the south east.

[summer blizzard]

Lovely charts for those who want summer done with.

 

[jamesthemonkeh]

Autumnal is a very broad descriptive word to be using.

[Swave Snow]

Lovely charts for those who want summer done with.

 

 

 

 

 

Wow thats a northerly plunge we see here in distant FI we see here tonight during a southerly plume 

 

 

It sure would bring us summer heat lovers down to earth with a bang if that happened there would be frosts for sure up in the North.  But its too far in FI to say anything like this will happen on the actual day

[draztik]

As autumnal seems to be the buzzword of the night..

from the gfs 18z

even i hope this does not verify! Awful.