Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[The PIT]

Well if the Country File forecast and the GFS is right we may get away with a fairly decent week tomorrow being the exception. Temps look about perfect low 20's and you can always miss the showers. The hot stuff preserved more the south and South east. Fingers crossed.

[Milhouse]

GFS 12z showing a decent rise in pressure from the south to end the week and persist into the weekend. Temperatures wont exactly be increasing that much due to the already warm temperatures of the coming week. However it would mean a dry weekend would be on the cards for much of the southern half of the UK with northern Britain seeing more unsettled conditions. 

 

The coming week isnt looking bad either once tomorrows rain clears away. Tuesday sees a weak area of high pressure over the UK but the odd shower cant be ruled out. Towards the end of the week the Azores High ridges across southern areas to bring increasing amounts of dry and warmish conditions with temperatures peaking at around 24c. Could be as high as 26/27 next weekend though.

[Milhouse]

UKMO moving towards a settled start to the weekend as well, more especially for southern areas. Sunday would be showing something more unsettled though.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2013 by Milhouse

[J10]

With the Azores high set to ridge in, turning a lot more settled than currently and to a certain extent to what the Met Office are suggesting (especially for Southwestern areas)

[Milhouse]

The 12z GEFS ensemble mean indicates reasonable support for a very warm and dry spell developing in time for next weekend

 

[Frosty.]

I would BANK this run too.. The Gfs 12z follows the theme of the 6z with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging strongly across the south at times from towards the end of the week ahead and right through to beyond mid month, there is a lot of warm or very warm and settled weather across the southern half or at least the southern third of the uk and occasionally extending further north, there are several incursions of the 564 dam line into the south and when it's further south, it's never far from the south coast so things are beginning to look more promising in the mid range when recently it was looking bleak but not now, at least for the south, the north  (mainly n.ireland & scotland) have a mix of fine and pleasantly warm weather and relatively cooler more unsettled spells but as things stand, august is shaping up to bring lots of very acceptable summer weather for at least the southern half of the uk during the next 7-10 days and potentially longer.

 

So, the week ahead begins on a soggy note tomorrow with heavy rain only slowly clearing away to the northeast, tuesday looks a nice day across central and eastern england but with showers spreading into the west and midweek will also be sunny and warm but with rather more widespread but scattered sharp showers with a risk of thunder, then later in the week, high pressure ridges in from the southwest with the weather becoming dry and sunnier with temperatures continuing in the 23-26c range, 73-79f and the southeastern half of england into the low 80's F at times.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

hmm Wednesday needs watching in the South east, potentially could get some thundery rain from low pressure developing over France. BBC seem to be watching it based on their week ahead forecast.

Temperatures looks average to warm over the week. I personally think 25C could get squeezed out tomorrow in East Anglia if the front drags its heels. Maxima seem to be around 25C for the rest of the week so pretty good really.

Looking at potentially another good weekend coming up too.

 

Edited August 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Don't mind there is no heatwave on the way as this week is looking like been another very acceptable one after would what we could say is a blip tomorrow there is a chance of some thundery rain in parts of the south and SE on Wednesday which needs watching closely but away from there sunshine looks the order of the day once more for many (Scotland looks an exception at times) and with temperatures around 20c and winds light it will feel very pleasant not too hot and sticky and not too cool

Edited August 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[William of Walworth]

Some pleasant looking recent runs indeed with some nice Azores High ridging  ... personally I'm more than happy to see earlier trends for the forthcoming week more or less being confirmed.

 

Next weekend, and maybe? beyond, looking very acceptable for settled weather preferrers -- further south at least,

 

Who needs heatwaves?

[draztik]

Some pleasant looking recent runs indeed with some nice Azores High ridging  ... personally I'm more than happy to see earlier trends for the forthcoming week more or less being confirmed. Next weekend, and maybe? beyond, looking very acceptable for settled weather preferrers -- further south at least, Who needs heatwaves?

certainly not I :pi have to say, this is perfect summer weather to me, if it verifies. Showers, sun, warm... Humid and hot ain't my sort. the ecm op is less progressive with the ridging, so by the looks of it the South will be mostly fine, while the NW is more prone to fronts. Standard for the UK, one could say.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is looking good for the south by friday and lasting throughout next weekend into the beginning of the following week with mainly dry and warm conditions with plenty of sunshine and light to moderate breezes, temperatures into the mid 20's celsius. Atlantic High Pressure then becoming centred to the southwest of the uk before ridging in again from the west at the end of the run, but the main thing is the gfs and ecm 12z are on the same page as far as the fine and warm spell at the end of the week is concerned for the southern half of the uk, it looks mixed further north but still with some occasional fine and pleasant spells, I have a feeling the cool unsettled trough dominated outlook the models were showing recently is looking less likely to have much impact during mid august, it appears as though it's being shunted away to the northeast with high pressure to the south and west being the main feature in the mid range.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

 

presentation spot on frosty-thanks

[forecaster]

I actually remember how that felt too ! People would've thought it was the Costa Del Sol it was that mild. 

Overall, the weather looks to be going into rest mode from after Monday. Plain old boring by the looks of things... zzzz!

 

That image gave me heart palpitations. Costa del Sol? I think 14C and drizzle reminds people of something quite different! Interesting that a colder spell did follow a few days later - a glance at the chart on the 3rd makes it look very  much "locked in". 

[Scorcher]

That image gave me heart palpitations. Costa del Sol? I think 14C and drizzle reminds people of something quite different! Interesting that a colder spell did follow a few days later - a glance at the chart on the 3rd makes it look very  much "locked in". 

 

16C was actually recorded quite widely on the February 3rd 2004 I believe, hence why I remembered it! A very exciting event, although it paled in comparison to February 2008 which is probably my best winter month ever.

[draztik]

Gfs 12z

Gfs 18z

similar timeframe, big difference.

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS 18z removes the threat of rain for the south east on Wednesday.

 

Thundery low develops further East.

A lot of uncertainty about tomorrow and Wednesday overall, the other days of this week look a little easier to resolve.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Gfs 12z

Gfs 18z

similar timeframe, big difference.

Yep the models are very uncertain in FI as usual.

[mushymanrob]

hmm... my popularity rating is going to go down even further with this post....

 

sorry guys, i didnt see all of last nights runs, but this morning i see nothing to be optimistic about, with regards to 'summerlike' weather. previous runs might have suggested the azh to ridge in and settle things down, but this morning its back to having them collapse before more atlantic systems push in.

 

 

these charts are typical of the whole run, showing a trough/ridge regime with frontal zones. cooler after the cold front, milder muggy but largely cloudy warm sectors.

 

and with anomaly charts like these,

 

which have been broadly similar for several runs now, it would suggest that runs showing the azh ridging in were unlikely to happen, and the rather miserable runs this morning are closer to whats generally expected over the next two weeks or so..

 

so august from now into the mid month period, going off this mornings runs, is looking distinctly average, even below average at times. true, there will be some nicer days with pleasant sun, but rain, wind, cloud, will never be too far away.

 

id like to think im not being overly negetive, but tbh i cant see anything on this mornings runs to give hope if its a settled, dry, sunny, warm spell youd like to see. subsequent runs might return a stronger azh ridge, but until theres support from other data, or/and its within a very reliable timeframe , is suggest not getting hopes up to much.

Edited August 5, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Mark Parsons]

hmm... my popularity rating is going to go down even further with this post....

 

sorry guys, i didnt see all of last nights runs, but this morning i see nothing to be optimistic about, with regards to 'summerlike' weather. previous runs might have suggested the azh to ridge in and settle things down, but this morning its back to having them collapse before more atlantic systems push in.

 

Rtavn1442.pngRtavn2762.png

 

these charts are typical of the whole run, showing a trough/ridge regime with frontal zones. cooler after the cold front, milder muggy but largely cloudy warm sectors.

 

and with anomaly charts like these,

test8.gif

 

which have been broadly similar for several runs now, it would suggest that runs showing the azh ridging in were unlikely to happen, and the rather miserable runs this morning are closer to whats generally expected over the next two weeks or so..

 

so august from now into the mid month period, going off this mornings runs, is looking distinctly average, even below average at times. true, there will be some nicer days with pleasant sun, but rain, wind, cloud, will never be too far away.

 

id like to think im not being overly negetive, but tbh i cant see anything on this mornings runs to give hope if its a settled, dry, sunny, warm spell youd like to see. subsequent runs might return a stronger azh ridge, but until theres support from other data, or/and its within a very reliable timeframe , is suggest not getting hopes up to much.

I don't think you will be that unpopular! The charts are showing a rather more unsettled picture this morning and cannot be ruled out as a solution.

[ANYWEATHER]

hmm... my popularity rating is going to go down even further with this post....

 

sorry guys, i didnt see all of last nights runs, but this morning i see nothing to be optimistic about, with regards to 'summerlike' weather. previous runs might have suggested the azh to ridge in and settle things down, but this morning its back to having them collapse before more atlantic systems push in.

 

Rtavn1442.pngRtavn2762.png

 

these charts are typical of the whole run, showing a trough/ridge regime with frontal zones. cooler after the cold front, milder muggy but largely cloudy warm sectors.

 

and with anomaly charts like these,

test8.gif

 

which have been broadly similar for several runs now, it would suggest that runs showing the azh ridging in were unlikely to happen, and the rather miserable runs this morning are closer to whats generally expected over the next two weeks or so..

 

so august from now into the mid month period, going off this mornings runs, is looking distinctly average, even below average at times. true, there will be some nicer days with pleasant sun, but rain, wind, cloud, will never be too far away.

 

id like to think im not being overly negetive, but tbh i cant see anything on this mornings runs to give hope if its a settled, dry, sunny, warm spell youd like to see. subsequent runs might return a stronger azh ridge, but until theres support from other data, or/and its within a very reliable timeframe , is suggest not getting hopes up to much.

Mushy, I don't think youre wrong in your post. Gfs was to progressive as I thought it was with that azores high, ecm has been the better model in the last few days. I don't think we will be talking much about the azores high in the near future!  Looks to be unsettled or changeable at best, and some fairly cool air arriving at the end of the week if models are correct!  

[shedhead]

hmm... my popularity rating is going to go down even further with this post....

 

sorry guys, i didnt see all of last nights runs, but this morning i see nothing to be optimistic about, with regards to 'summerlike' weather. previous runs might have suggested the azh to ridge in and settle things down, but this morning its back to having them collapse before more atlantic systems push in.

 

Rtavn1442.pngRtavn2762.png

 

these charts are typical of the whole run, showing a trough/ridge regime with frontal zones. cooler after the cold front, milder muggy but largely cloudy warm sectors.

 

and with anomaly charts like these,

test8.gif

 

which have been broadly similar for several runs now, it would suggest that runs showing the azh ridging in were unlikely to happen, and the rather miserable runs this morning are closer to whats generally expected over the next two weeks or so..

 

so august from now into the mid month period, going off this mornings runs, is looking distinctly average, even below average at times. true, there will be some nicer days with pleasant sun, but rain, wind, cloud, will never be too far away.

 

id like to think im not being overly negetive, but tbh i cant see anything on this mornings runs to give hope if its a settled, dry, sunny, warm spell youd like to see. subsequent runs might return a stronger azh ridge, but until theres support from other data, or/and its within a very reliable timeframe , is suggest not getting hopes up to much.

Good post Mushy and nothing more to add really, other than there should be no need to feel guilty for posting what the models actually show.

Edited August 5, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

Mushy, I don't think youre wrong in your post. Gfs was to progressive as I thought it was with that azores high, ecm has been the better model in the last few days. I don't think we will be talking much about the azores high in the near future!  Looks to be unsettled or changeable at best, and some fairly cool air arriving at the end of the week if models are correct!  

Has the ECM been better? Where are those deep lows which were predicted to crash through us in the coming week according to the ECM a couple of days back? 

GFS has been less keen to drag us into the really cool and mobile weather and to be honest the other models have backtracked from the truly awful stuff.

GFS still going for a very usable weekend whilst the others show cooler but still not too bad for most of the UK.

It does look like the Azores high will retreat westwards but given it's beyond day 6/7, normal doubts apply.

BTW Mushy, nothing wrong with your posts, the ECM made me want to have another half hour in bed   

Edited August 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

The synoptic models are taking up what the anomaly charts have been suggesting for a while, that is an upper trough in charge rather than a ridge, and with temperatures falling back from the July heights to more usual values. A NW-SE split may be the way to describe it with more sun and dry weather in the SE than in the NW where also breezy at times?

The two sets of anomaly charts at 500mb illustrate this very well. Remember they are at 500mb and not the surface.

ECMWF-GFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

and NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Tamara]

If we take a further look, following the weekend post, at the latest overnight NAEFS anomaly chart check at what is now down to day 6 to see how things have progressed since the start of the weekend then I think we can see that model consistency has been very good with pressure still indicated to be maintained relatively high ridging across close to the south and an upper trough just to the north of Scotland by next weekend. No changes there at all. On that basis, after todays very wet weather then there is some more pleasant warm summer weather to look forward to this week in between a few showers in places.  And this takes us into the weekend as well

 

 

What of the further outlook? There are signs across the modelling in general of some amplification of the jet stream thereafter , with some cooler uppers digging a little further south, but as this is at least a week and more away it needs to be watched in case the models over emphasise this trend, and it wouldn't be the first time they have this summer. If we look at the EPS members then there is at least something of a suggestion that the ECM operational may have dug the trough a little further south than some of the other members by day 7 - and, at least up to now, the GFS has made less of this trend. That said, there is a clear signal as can be seen for winds to be more north of west by this time.

 

The next day or two will tell us whether this trend gathers further pace to something more widely cooler and unsettled, or whether the split scenario is maintained with some backing away from the more amplified jet stream solutions currently being suggested. For now anyway, it still looks reasonable enough for quite a few southern and western areas at least. Temperatures by then perhaps closer to the average more generally than we have seen for quite some time, but nothing especially cool, and probably still feeling quite warm in the sunnier and more sheltered areas further south and west away from the breeze

Edited August 5, 2013 by Tamara Road

[William of Walworth]

I thought mushy's post of what the 006z runs are showing just now, along with his reading of the anomoly charts was a  very fair summary, and yes ECM 006z certainly didn't make pleasant reading for summer preferrers.

 

But I have to say as well that Tamara seems to me to be absolutely right to apply caution (FI caution!) about what may actually happen beyond the coming weekend. Some runs (individual ones, at that) can be just as over-progressive about removing any HP influence and firing up the Atlantic, as others can be to over-emphasising ridging.

 

I see that mushy and john are both pointing to the anomoly charts to predict more in the way of upper trough trend than an upper ridge one from those signals, and their reasoning makes plenty of sense, but all the same we may end up with more of a NW/SE divide (or a N/S one) in reality, than looks likely just now.

 

I admit there's some speculation (even hopecasting!) in my post, but let's see.

Edited August 5, 2013 by William of Walworth