Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Frosty.]

From the models, it all looks like a very typical August pattern, to me?

Spot on RP, it's a mixed outlook, some good and some bad, but much more good than bad the further south you go, average is fine compared to the nightmare summer of 2012.

[DTHFCJ]

So the anomaly charts are showing a trough influence is that right ? Wasn't there 1 anomaly chart this morning that wasn't agreeing with the others I think mushy posted it ! And John holmes does say that all 3 have to be in agreement . Sorry still learning x

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

This the "slightly" better of the two

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

itl be updated shortly,

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

no idea where the ECM'S take on things is on the left

 

these chop and change alot more than the noaa

 

and yes John Holmes does always say about agreement and for a number of days

 

im still learning too

Edited August 7, 2013 by DTHFCJ

[UV-RAY]

Spot on RP, it's a mixed outlook, some good and some bad, but much more good than bad the further south you go, average is fine compared to the nightmare summer of 2012.

I thought I was looking at different charts earlier today reading some prior posts, but like you and Pete say it's standard August weather I'm seeing, no heat waves, no monsoons and no record breaking cold. 

[William of Walworth]

Yes, S.I. : and no huge washouts either -- at least further South.

 

From the models, it all looks like a very typical August pattern, to me?

 

 

Yes -- like all Johnny Cash fans (?) you talk sense. To me, 'typical' means 'haven't any idea ahead of the last minute'

 

IMO, a broadly zonal N/S divide seems the most likely compormise to hold onto pending more ...

[Frosty.]

Yes, S.I. : and no huge washouts either -- at least further South.   Yes -- like all Johnny Cash fans (?) you talk sense. To me, 'typical' means 'haven't any idea ahead of the last minute' IMO, a broadly zonal N/S divide seems the most likely compormise to hold onto pending more ...

Yes I agree, we had our burning ring of fire heatwave in july and now it's back to normal but I think there will be a warmer settled spell developing next week similar to what the gfs 12z is showing.

[Methuselah]

Yes I agree, we had our burning ring of fire heatwave in july and now it's back to normal but I think there will be a warmer settled spell developing next week similar to what the gfs 12z is showing.

It won't be long, chaps...

 

[Guest pjl20101]

Think a lot will depend on these four things over the next weeks or so. The ao/nao, atmospheric angular momentum and MJO. IMHO its moving in the right direction not exactly for an extensive hot period, but a reasonable sort of set up for mid August.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM ens have come out and well I all I can say is we are no further than we were this morning about the weather for next week.

Still a GFS vs ECM split with the ensembles backing its own model.

Thought I would compare tonights T168 of both GFS/ECM with the T192 charts from yesterday to see whether there has been any movement from either.

GFS

 

Yesterdays

This shows that the prospects for the UK have actually improved since yesterday with each run (00z,06z showing the slow steps towards the run just gone)

ECM

 

Yesterdays

Both charts are pretty similar.

 

So then we have the GFS and ensembles if anything moving further away from the ECM which has remained stubborn over the past 24 hours.

Hopefully tomorrows runs will shed some more light on proceedings.

[William of Walworth]

Which of those two near-opposites will back down first for next week, everyone must be trying to work out.

 

Tough job.

[damianslaw]

As others have stated the models are painting a very standard August outlook, broadly a westerly pattern which always equates to the driest, sunniest and warmest conditions being reserved for the SE quarter of the country and the wettest, coolest and cloudiest conditions for the NW quarter.

 

Unlike early summer when the atlantic struggles to maintain its influence we, even a fairly weak ineffective atlantic as we head further into August can keep the azores high at bay and for the foreseeable future at least this appears to be the case. GFS is suggesting we may see some ridging of the azores high into southern parts as we move into the middle of the month, but the polar front jet is forecast to stay close to northern britain shores, and hence I suspect any ridging will be weak and temporary - I don't foresee an early July sequence of events again.

 

One notable aspect of the current weather is the cool nights in the north, parts of northern england got down to 3 degrees last night and tonight is likely to see similiar temperatures.

 

The synoptics right now are very similiar to those of June which turned out very average temp wise.

[Tamara]

Which of those two near-opposites will back down first for next week, everyone must be trying to work out.

 

Tough job.

The point is as earlier suggested and discussed, the differences don't occur till some time away. It is fairly clear that up till then there is nothing significant in terms of changes In the meantime just enjoy the summer and every day of extended daylight - there are at least a weeks worth before any of the changes that might/might not occur. And that still leaves us comfortably in official 'summer' anyway 

Edited August 7, 2013 by Tamara Road

[J10]

It won't be long, chaps...

 

 

Is that the first ramp of the winter season.

[J10]

As others have stated the models are painting a very standard August outlook, broadly a westerly pattern which always equates to the driest, sunniest and warmest conditions being reserved for the SE quarter of the country and the wettest, coolest and cloudiest conditions for the NW quarter.

 

Unlike early summer when the atlantic struggles to maintain its influence we, even a fairly weak ineffective atlantic as we head further into August can keep the azores high at bay and for the foreseeable future at least this appears to be the case. GFS is suggesting we may see some ridging of the azores high into southern parts as we move into the middle of the month, but the polar front jet is forecast to stay close to northern britain shores, and hence I suspect any ridging will be weak and temporary - I don't foresee an early July sequence of events again.

 

One notable aspect of the current weather is the cool nights in the north, parts of northern england got down to 3 degrees last night and tonight is likely to see similiar temperatures.

 

The synoptics right now are very similiar to those of June which turned out very average temp wise.

 

The synoptics of June gave the sunniest conditions to more western areas, as has been the case all summer long.

 

I do agree with those who suggest more of a north south split into next week, initially SW areas faring best perhaps this transferring more to the SE doing best if the wind moves round more to a South Westerly. (It is often the case that SE areas far better at summers end, perhaps in line with the Jet Stream edging back south.

 

All in all a decent end to a good summer, especially for more southern areas.

[NUT]

I am aware it's in FI but GFS showing a possible plume (at least I think it's a plume) around the 19th/20th but again FI and unlikely to come to fruition

[mushymanrob]

So the anomaly charts are showing a trough influence is that right ? Wasn't there 1 anomaly chart this morning that wasn't agreeing with the others I think mushy posted it ! And John holmes does say that all 3 have to be in agreement . Sorry still learning x

 

that is correct tf... john uses three charts (i believe) 2 continued the westerly, zonal,  theme which kicks in tomorrow. yesterday the gfs anomaly suggested higher pressure to the south, much inline with what the opperational (gfs) runs are showing which explains perhaps the gfs's promotion of 'better' weather.  the anomaly charts do not support the notion of a building ridge (todays might be interesting, whether the gfs backs down, or the others fall into line) as things stand. plus there has to be cross model agreement for at least 2 runs. so this mornings 00z gfs suggesting a hot spell later next week is not to be taken seriously, it has no support except from itself!

 

personally ill be glad for the atlantic to kick in and dispell this rather bland weather... the only plus is that its not wet. the suns weak, milky/cloudy skies, autumnal start to the day (very cool , dewy, misty, this morning, ) . and as thers no chance of anything warmer evolving out of this benign patch, the atlantic might yet promote the evolution of something warmer/sunnier as per the currently unsupported gfs.

Edited August 8, 2013 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

I am aware it's in FI but GFS showing a possible plume (at least I think it's a plume) around the 19th/20th but again FI and unlikely to come to fruition

 

that is correct 

[Summer Sun]

So today's Daily Express is running a front page story that a new heatwave is coming and it could see the hottest temperature of 2013 god knows where there "forecasters" have got this from the best I can find is this

 

[Frosty.]

BANK the Gfs 00z, it shows a much warmer and more settled spell next week as the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds in with temperatures into the low 80's F followed by a cooler blip and then hotting up again for a time, following on from the EPIC July heatwave, this run would perfectly round off a tremendous summer and hopefully with more very warm weather to come in september. The overall pattern is very similar to previous runs and what other models are showing with just some slight adjustments to the PFJ, same rules apply, wettest and coolest across the far northwest of the uk with low pressure having the upper hand, driest and warmest across the southeast of the uk with high pressure the dominant force with only a few cooler and unsettled blips, a mixture across the middle, and on this run we have the 564 dam line spreading up from the south and occasionally making inroads into the south of the uk, the same thing happened in July when we had that fantastic heatwave, it's not on the same scale as july but it would be the icing on the cake for summer 2013, fingers crossed.

[draztik]

So today's Daily Express is running a front page story that a new heatwave is coming and it could see the hottest temperature of 2013 god knows where there "forecasters" have got this from the best I can find is this

the worst piece of journalism you can ever imagine. Though, it is August, and they need to sell their papers somehow. For their predictions to come true, the models would need to do a U-turn, including the gfs.

the ecm continues to be stubborn this morning, and suggest an unsettled week, esp for more northern areas.

as for warmth, the only chart i can find is

but at 324t, we know the score!

Edited August 8, 2013 by draztik

[Yarmy]

So today's Daily Express is running a front page story that a new heatwave is coming and it could see the hottest temperature of 2013 god knows where there "forecasters" have got this from the best I can find is this

 

 

 

And the irony is that they are the first to put the boot into the Met Office for perceived forecast failures.

[Captain Shortwave]

So today's Daily Express is running a front page story that a new heatwave is coming and it could see the hottest temperature of 2013 god knows where there "forecasters" have got this from the best I can find is this

 

I fell asleep during yesterdays ECM run, woke up to find my ramp was missing. The Daily mail have flaming borrowed it again 

So GFS good, ECM is better than yesterday, UKMO is awful at T144 as usual.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MP-R]

Well I would bank the GFS 00Z as high pressure has much more of an influence across the south and even further north at times next week, with the possibility of the high breaking to the south and moving eastwards bringing up a brief plume of warm air from the continent. I would have to see it repeated in further runs though as at the moment it seems like an outlier in the overall westerly pattern.

 

All in all, nothing special at all - certainly usable weather with most of the rain confined to the northern half of the UK but not overly sunny which, to me, is the most important thing in summer.

[Tamara]

The EPS members show that the more widely unsettled UKMO at day 6 has limited support and there is greater favour for something in between the GFS and ECM with, once more, something of a split north to south looking most likely. 

 

Driest conditions towards the south, but think that sunshine will be at a premium even here, as it looks a very cloudy westerly airstream with the Azores High probably not quite close enough to increase sunshine amounts for southern areas.

 

Latest NAEFS anomalies interestingly make more of the Azores High ridging closer to the UK as illustrated well on the GFS 00z

 

So taking everything into account then for the moment the stand-off apparent from recent days continues. But as of yesterday, the cautious viewpoint would probably favour the half way house with a changeable westerly pattern, never especially cool, and the best of drier weather in the south and south east and the greatest chance of rain and showers furthest north west

 

Latest GFS much the same really - a slightly flatter ridge from the Azores High perhaps, but very little change in the overall weather patten suggested. And still different from the Euro models, and quite some way from the UKMO

 

Edited August 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[draztik]

There seems to be a subtle pressure correction taking place with the latest gfs output. Edit : maybe subtle is too kind a word. Starting to appear substantial.

gfs 0z 144

gfs 6z 144

Edited August 8, 2013 by draztik

[shedhead]

I'm not sure any real 'standoff' actually exists.  The pattern going forward looks pretty clear to me, that is slowly but surely becoming more and more unsettled from the NW as next week unfolds, but never really becoming properly unsettled away from the far northwest.  Temps close to average for 70% of the UK, but a bit higher for 10% in the E/SE and a bit lower for 20% in the N/NW. Rainfall following a fairly similar spread, the only real anomalous deficiency being in sunshine values, which looks set to be below average for 95%.

 

 

Edit: Indeed Draztik, GFS has started a southward correction, with the 06 big picture already looking rather more in line with ECM and UKMO. 

 

Not really a pretty picture by next weekend, but of course this could well be a bit extreme.

 

 

Edited August 8, 2013 by shedhead