Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[ANYWEATHER]

I believe in miracles after what happened in July, that wasn't supposed to happen either, oh yeah and 1st August ...34.1c 93 f

To be honest Frosty ,what we saw in July was nothing miraculous given the time of year, although yes it did rather come out of the blue, and of course long overdue, !!!  

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest Frosty ,what we saw in July was nothing miraculous given the time of year, although yes it did rather come out of the blue, and of course long overdue, !!!  

Was it though, the GFS and ECM had the start of it pretty much nailed at 10 days out. Just many refused to believe in the tale of the Azores high cometh

Very little worth discussing about tonights ECM, just normal UK weather

Edited August 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Was it though, the GFS and ECM had the start of it pretty much nailed at 10 days out. Just many refused to believe in the tale of the Azores high cometh Very little worth discussing about tonights ECM, just normal UK weather

Normal is good compared to the nightmare that was summer 2012, at least the jet is further north so the southern half of the uk has more chance of warm spells instead of just the southeast corner.

[Methuselah]

I'm still of the opinion that any attempts at 'reading' the models, at anything more than about 10 days' forward, is pretty futile...I also strongly suspect that the Modern Summer (yes, the same one I was hoping to put down to melting Arctic ice) has gone the same way as its marginally less-warm cousin - the MW? In which case, there's not much point in, either myself or others, searching for any signs that the PFJ is about to play ball...

 

In the mean time, all we have to look forward to is a decreasing likelihood of extreme heat and an increasing tendency for Atlantic-dominated weather types spreading erratically south...

 

Autumn is coming... 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows frequent ridging across the southern half of the uk, occasionally extending further north, the most important aspect is the troughs pushing east to the north of the uk keep moving east and don't hang around like they did in spring where they just stalled over the uk for weeks and slowly filled in situ, at least the azores/atlantic ridging is allowed to keep making inroads between the troughs and the trough's don't have much impact across the south anyway, pressure is persistently that bit higher to the southwest and south of the uk with long spells of fine and pleasantly warm weather and only occasional cooler more unsettled blips that don't amount to much, only the northwest corner of the uk is significantly affected by those troughs and even those areas have some fine and warmer intervals, although temperatures across the uk are looking generally average, warmer air does encroach into the south at times with temperatures rising into the mid 20's celsius from time to time but generally low 20's c for the south and around 19-20c for central uk with 16-19c for n.ireland, cumbria & scotland but with a few warmer days here and there, with the PFJ further north than last summer, at least central and especially southern/se parts of the uk can look forward to more warm spells during the coming weeks.

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm still of the opinion that any attempts at 'reading' the models, at anything more than about 10 days' forward, is pretty futile...I also strongly suspect that the Modern Summer (yes, the same one I was hoping to put down to melting Arctic ice) has gone the same way as its marginally less-warm cousin - the MW? In which case, there's not much point in, either myself or others, searching for any signs that the PFJ is about to play ball...

 

In the mean time, all we have to look forward to is a decreasing likelihood of extreme heat and an increasing tendency for Atlantic-dominated weather types spreading erratically south...

 

Autumn is coming... 

So is winter   

Anyway whilst it is true, the strong hint from the GFS is at least worth keeping tabs on. Will be a few days until it gets into range of the ECM, lets see whether the ECM starts building heights in it's latter frames in it's runs next week

Edited August 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

The jet looks to be powering up a bit and heading straight for the middle of the UK as we head for the middle of August and beyond,so more unsettled the further North you are looks to be the general idea and fairly breezy at times.

 

 

 

Some interest in the later stages of recent NAEFS runs however,with heights building to the east of the UK.

 

 

 

Well in FI at the moment obviously,but quite a strong anomaly showing up at that range so worth keeping an eye on. 

[skifreak]

Thought I'd lob this in here.... Thoughts on the synoptic pattern that would help deliver such anomalies? Just trying to imagine this place if in early winter we had a chart like that for Feb with that -10 anomaly further NW....

[davehsug]

Thought I'd lob this in here.... Thoughts on the synoptic pattern that would help deliver such anomalies? Just trying to imagine this place if in early winter we had a chart like that for Feb with that -10 anomaly further NW....

February is where it can stay thanks! Nearly gave me a heart attack on first glance until I saw the date!

[Captain Shortwave]

Thought I'd lob this in here.... Thoughts on the synoptic pattern that would help deliver such anomalies? Just trying to imagine this place if in early winter we had a chart like that for Feb with that -10 anomaly further NW....

Only 6 months till verification then. No problem 

[fergieweather]

So is winter

Anyway whilst it is true, the strong hint from the GFS is at least worth keeping tabs on. Will be a few days until it gets into range of the ECM, lets see whether the ECM starts building heights in it's latter frames in it's runs next week

Recent MOGREPS output has delivered an increasing number of anticyclonic members showing into later August.

[Yarmy]

Recent MOGREPS output has delivered an increasing number of anticyclonic members showing into later August.

Fergieweather! Long time, no hear, and with promising news too.

[draztik]

argh! I realise im in the minority - but please, no!!

[Steve C]

Recent MOGREPS output has delivered an increasing number of anticyclonic members showing into later August.

Fantastic fergieweather   if it happens. A sunny, warm, August bank holiday would do the Country a world of good, before the inevitable winter retreat.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Steve C

[fergieweather]

Fergieweather! Long time, no hear, and with promising news too.

Worth adding that EC DECIDER output also has significantly increased anticyclonic bias later into 10-15d period. Room for growing, if still cautious, optimism.

[Captain Shortwave]

Very interesting. Well as it's nearly 2 weeks away then caution should be the order of the day. Give a week and if all the models show settled weather developing then we can have a good August bank holiday ramp....

Until the models show a week of north easterly winds for me 

Welcome back too Ian

GFS ens continuing the trend for a pressure rise beyond the 20th

It's very rare to see a final frame mean from the GFS with high pressure slap bang over the UK

Edited August 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mike Meehan]

Thought I'd lob this in here.... Thoughts on the synoptic pattern that would help deliver such anomalies? Just trying to imagine this place if in early winter we had a chart like that for Feb with that -10 anomaly further NW....

Looks like it could be quite pleasant winter weather, cold but with lots of sunshine, then let's hope it develops into a really cracking summer - we all have our dreams

[draztik]

Apparently the EC32 has gone under a major change, and there are now signs of rather settled weather with HP from the 21st onwards.

though, by looking at this mornings ecm output, you'd be forgiven for thinking the exact opposite.

[mushymanrob]

just a quickie.... my monies on this mornings ecm being closest to the eventual weather we get... its middle ground between the ukmo which probably overstates the high to our south, and the gfs 00z which has all but non of that high. the ecm 00z also fits with the anomaly charts.

[shedhead]

just a quickie.... my monies on this mornings ecm being closest to the eventual weather we get... its middle ground between the ukmo which probably overstates the high to our south, and the gfs 00z which has all but non of that high. the ecm 00z also fits with the anomaly charts.

Agree Mushy, what a turnaround from yesterday tho, with UKMO going from most unsettled to most settled in the T+120-144hr range.  Interesting news regarding the final third of the month from fergieweather, but up until then I can see nothing but the kind of bog standard Aug weather I have been expecting for weeks.

[Summer Sun]

argh! I realise im in the minority - but please, no!!

 

 

Lovely jubbly just what we want to see as we get near the August bank holiday

 

[stainesbloke]

argh! I realise im in the minority - but please, no!!

Please, yes!! A very nice looking chart - one which looks increasingly likely to verify?

[Tamara]

The middle ground ECM, as depicted by the individual ensemble members, continues to be well advertised in the medium range with a ridge just to the south of the UK and low pressure to the north of Scotland.

 

However there does seem to be something of a growing consensus for any trend towards more extensive unsettled conditions evolving from this split scenario to be reversed and that the changeable westerly pattern may revert instead back to more anticyclonic conditions with euro/uk mid latitude ridges in the longer term

 

The 12z NAEFS anomalies yesterday suggested that beyond day 10 the upper trough to the north of the UK will transfer westwards further into the atlantic and pressure will rise from the south and over nearby Europe. This could lead to late summer warmth, assuming the anomalies are correctly placed. The other scenario is that the high anomalies are more to our south west which might lead to cloudier more stratiform conditions from the atlantic perhaps.

 

However such detail is too far ahead to decipher meaningfully- it is the signal for reversal of any increasingly unsettled trend that is of interest. The NAEFS ensembles should update a little later this morning

Edited August 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Man With Beard]

A return to blocked conditions over the UK in FI still not showing in all outputs - this morning's ECM/GFS T240 mean charts, which suggest a continuation of the current pattern and maybe even more unsettled in the north

 

 

However, next week looking reasonable especially in the east according to UKMO and ECM (for dry and sunny weather that is) - that's 3 out the last 4 from UKMO with this prognosis, unusual from the UKMO in recent weeks.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thought I'd lob this in here.... Thoughts on the synoptic pattern that would help deliver such anomalies? Just trying to imagine this place if in early winter we had a chart like that for Feb with that -10 anomaly further NW....

Now that would be one hell of a whiteout, the full monty there with raging Easterlies and endless snow showers from all this heat retained from this summer