Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

the Jetstream profile shows how the alantic inroads of low pressure is coming into place as early as t72 u can see the surge of jet energy coming straight at us but as suggest knife edge

 

Aye, it's all down to the tilt of the jet. I still favour a wsw direction myself given the position of the upper trough over Greenland. I will be quite interesting in the ECMs day 10 chart to see whether it will start to pick up on height rises from the south. Anyway I shall only be glancing at the thread as I've got to host a family BBQ so no model watching for me this evening

[MR EXTREMES]

both ukmo and gfs look to be sinking pressure but still warming up to start with.

winds coming up right from the azores then heights starting to retreat south so more of the same up.

 

but u can see the change slowly creeping in.

[The Northern Ramper]

Heights for the south look ok on the 12z for next Saturday, much better than the 6z with the low visibly further north.

[The Northern Ramper]

The last two frames of the ukmo suggest a northerly track too.

[TootyFruity]

Very quiet on this thread today !! Have the models reverted back to cack again ???

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Perhaps if the earth rotated the opposite direction, this thread would be filled to the max 3 times a day with us being Vladivostok cold in winter with 30ft snow drifts, and then in the summer being another Mediterranean like country talking about 40c maximums and then the potential for MCS crackers week in, week out!! 

A far cry from this sleepy weather now, thats for sure.

[The Ice Lord]

Very quiet on this thread today !! Have the models reverted back to cack again ???

I think there's an emerging realisation that the best of summer is over, no more heat waves for a long while !

[TootyFruity]

That's bloody typical going on my holidays next week dam it .

[The Ice Lord]

That's bloody typical going on my holidays next week dam it .

Just embrace whatever conditions nature provides you with, and you will be happy

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a westerly pattern will develop next week at least the winds will be fairly warm by mid week

 

 

By next Friday a deep low is shown to cross Iceland and it looks like it could well hit parts of the UK as well though at this stage the worst will stay away from most the UK thankfully

 

 

UKMO is also showing this deep low

 

 

GFS keeps it further north

 

Edited August 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[TootyFruity]

I think my packing will be as unreliable as the models are : jumpers hats bikini etc pack the lot I say !!!

[The Ice Lord]

I think my packing will be as unreliable as the models are : jumpers hats bikini etc pack the lot I say !!!

And don't forget a laboratory thermometer to monitor the sea temperature !

[The Northern Ramper]

The ECM pushes the low further north next weekend allowing heights to rise from the south.

[The Northern Ramper]

High pressure in place by next Sunday on the ECM.

[Summer Sun]

Not bad from ECM the low is getting forced north higher uppers in the south mean temperatures should rise to the mid 20's easily here

 

 

By Sunday low pressure is anchored across Iceland high pressure is just south of the UK and we are in the middle with pressure around 1015mb cooler across the south as well with the highest uppers moving south

 

 

By t216 high pressure has finally moved over the UK with low pressure still Anchored north of the UK where it should be allowing the Jet stream to head north again temperatures still look around average but in the sunshine it will feel warm given the time of year

 

Edited August 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with high pressure to our east and low pressure to the west its become hot across a lot of Europe again with +15 uppers moving up to northern France +10 uppers are just flirting with the south coast of England

 

[Milhouse]

Matt Hugo might soon have to admit its looking fairly dry and pleasantly warm. That's if subsequent ECM runs follow the theme of this evenings 12z

[ANYWEATHER]

Both Ecm and Gfs show no heatwave @ 240! Check it out!!!  

[draztik]

Matt Hugo might soon have to admit its looking fairly dry and pleasantly warm. That's if subsequent ECM runs follow the theme of this evenings 12z

doesn't Matthew live in Northern England? Have you seen the precipitation charts for N.I., Scotland and the North of England? It looks wet, really wet!only the south gets pleasant weather. This is not a dry week upcoming UK wide. As for the heatwave, still waiting to see any real signs! GEM looks particularly mobile with its output tonight.

[Jax]

I think there's an emerging realisation that the best of summer is over, no more heat waves for a long while !

From what I can tell we are in a spell of "normal" weather, not too hot, not too cold, few dry spells and the few wet ones.  There is the usual N/NW - S/SE split goign by the avg output across the models.

[Captain Shortwave]

So lets see what the models have done this afternoon.

Both ECM and GFS have moved next weekends low a couple of hundred of miles north and is now fairly similar to the GFS mean from this morning. Again suggesting the operationals like for most of the summer have tried to place the trough too far south.

ECM has picked up on the GFS signal in the 10-15 day range but like in July it is too quick with the evolution and I expect it to delay until the 21-22nd August.

All in all a good model suite this afternoon. 

Lets address a couple of claims in the thread

For northern washout, here is the total predicted rainfall from the GFS until next Saturday

 

Nothing particularly special, only the highlands and Cumbria are particularly wet which is typical of westerly flows. 10-20mm across northern areas typically, not unusual with bands of light-moderate rain between the drier and warmer spells of next week. Matt Hugo's tweet from yesterday morning stated nationwide wet and below par temperatures for next week which simply is not the case now.

Ah the heatwave scenario. All I am interested in is the trend to bring high pressure in from the 21st onwards which still looks good. Get the heights in and let the heat build.

@anyweather you still don't believe the heatwave last month happened (despite it being the 3rd warmest July on record) 

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

signs of Something getting better.....??

yet again the further south and east you live

[Jezzer]

Matt Hugo's tweet from yesterday morning stated nationwide wet and below par temperatures for next week which simply is not the case now.

Ah the heatwave scenario. All I am interested in is the trend to bring high pressure in from the 21st onwards which still looks good. Get the heights in and let the heat build.

@anyweather you still don't believe the heatwave last month happened (despite it being the 3rd warmest July on record) 

 

Does Matt Hugo ever tweet about prospects of sunny and warm weather approaching, I've only ever seen him tweet about the potential of low pressure having an influence?

 

It certainly doesn't look too bad for next week in this neck of the woods, compared to last summer this August weather is certainly an improvement even if conditions are average at best at the moment.

[Methuselah]

Well, sitting here with all the doors and windows open, I don't know what to expect...

[Cloud 10]

Well, sitting here with all the doors and windows open, I don't know what to expect...

 

Daddy long-legs.