Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a bad chart at all

[Methuselah]

Indeed not, CS...It looks as if the oft-touted return to unsettled, cool westerlies has been put back - again? Long may it continue!

[chionomaniac]

Not a bad chart at all

for the south perhaps..

 

those in the west of Scotland would be rather wet.

[Methuselah]

for the south perhaps..

 

those in the west of Scotland would be rather wet.

That's true, chio. But eastern Scotty could fare quite well?

[Captain Shortwave]

for the south perhaps..

 

those in the west of Scotland would be rather wet.

With that attitude we technically couldn't be positive about 80% of decent British summer weather spells we get 

Most times some places do miss out, and the run shows that it would be warm across a good part of the UK with rain only in the north west but when has that been a rare occurrence.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With that attitude we technically couldn't be positive about 80% of decent British summer weather spells we get 

Most times some places do miss out, and the run shows that it would be warm across a good part of the UK with rain only in the north west but when has that been a rare occurrence.

Plus the East did miss out on alot of the July sunshine due to that nagging North Sea low cloud. It could be a great opportunity for Eastern coastal counties with this potential warmer spell, as the Northwest did much better throughout many parts of July for sunshine and heat.

[The Northern Ramper]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130809/06/312/h850t850eu.png

Hello

[Eskimo]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130809/06/312/h850t850eu.png

Hello

Possibly a very hot, severe thundery spell? 

[mushymanrob]

well...the gfs 06z has yet again a plume @ c300 , is it onto something in fi?

 

well it does have something of support from this anomaly chart... (although not an exact match).

 

 

its well out in fi, but is something of interest to watch over the next few days. perhaps there is one last hot spell this summer, chances are slim, but growing...

Edited August 9, 2013 by mushymanrob

[chionomaniac]

That's true, chio. But eastern Scotty could fare quite well?

 

 Even eastern Scotland would be wet

 

 

With that attitude we technically couldn't be positive about 80% of decent British summer weather spells we get 

Most times some places do miss out, and the run shows that it would be warm across a good part of the UK with rain only in the north west but when has that been a rare occurrence.

 

 

No attitude at all CS, I would be quite happy with that chart but I think it does flatter to deceive for those further north.

[Captain Shortwave]

 Even eastern Scotland would be wet

 

Rtavn14441.png

 

 

 

No attitude at all CS, I would be quite happy with that chart but I think it does flatter to deceive for those further north.

Well the chart says that but how reliable would a rainfall chart at T144 be, in reality it will be likely that areas east of high ground would be dry with probably some sunshine given the wind direction.

Perhaps attitude was the wrong word to use, perhaps perspective would be better.

GFS still wants this pressure build from the 20th August onwards

Edited August 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

 Even eastern Scotland would be wet

 

Rtavn14441.png

 

 

 

No attitude at all CS, I would be quite happy with that chart but I think it does flatter to deceive for those further north.

Do people actually live north of Watford?  You certainly wouldn't think so some times...

[Methuselah]

 Even eastern Scotland would be wet

 

Rtavn14441.png

 

 

 

No attitude at all CS, I would be quite happy with that chart but I think it does flatter to deceive for those further north.

The Northweast Highlands' mountains often ensure that, whilst everywhere from about Fort Augustus westward get heavy, persistent rainfall, places like Tain, Beauly, Ardersier, Aberdeen and Dundee get away with bright, humid, breezy and mostly dry conditions...It took a while for me to ignore most of the forecasts for persistent cack...

[Frosty.]

This is the point the Gfs 06z became interesting to me, a few much warmer days later next week and then potentially the hottest spell of the summer so far, although the bar has already been set very high by that epic nationwide july heatwave and 1st august sizzler in the southeast, this FI plume would be dramatic with a brief scorcher as the 576 dam line flirts with the southeast, it ends with a BANG, the overall pattern has support so it's one to watch, it could bring a stunning end to summer, ideally with the pattern further west so more of the uk gets in on the action with the heat & humidity lasting longer.

 

The reliable timeframe is average with some sun, some showers, some longer outbreaks of rain but most of the rain looks like being across the north and temperatures are about where they should be as we head towards mid august, low 20's c for the south of the uk and nearer 16-19c for the north.

 

It's been such a great summer that it would be fitting to see a major plume event in late august, here's hoping the summer goes out with a bang, it would be the perfect ending, in the meantime, enjoy these FI charts.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

Do people actually live north of Watford?  You certainly wouldn't think so some times...

A lot do, and a lot who would have dry, fair and warm conditions from that chart, even Ilchester 

[ribster]

Well the chart says that but how reliable would a rainfall chart at T144 be, in reality it will be likely that areas east of high ground would be dry with probably some sunshine given the wind direction.

Perhaps attitude was the wrong word to use, perhaps perspective would be better.

GFS still wants this pressure build from the 20th August onwards

About as reliable as one at 12 days away

[TootyFruity]

Hi Frosty

You spoke of the reliable timeframe in your post and rain for the North would "your" North include Scarborough ?

Thankyou

[Frosty.]

Hi FrostyYou spoke of the reliable timeframe in your post and rain for the North would "your" North include Scarborough ?Thankyou

Hi TootyFruity

 

Unfortunately, the gfs 6z is showing a showery nw'ly airflow on the 12th with heavy showers down the north sea coastline and temps around 17 celsius, so wrap up warm and have a brolly handy, you might dodge the showers and have sunny spells but monday looks unsettled across the northern half of the uk, wish I could bring you better news but it seems the models were too progressive in bringing that ridge of high pressure across the uk.

[Frank Trough]

A lot do, and a lot who would have dry, fair and warm conditions from that chart, even Ilchester 

 

A lot don't. In fact, a very high proportion of the population (is it something like 33%?) live in the southeast (because it doesn't rain all the time)

 

Well, the ECM for the 19th sticks stoically to the general theme of low pressure close enough to the north to be dominant but far enough from the south to allow for some better conditions. The flow very much northwesterly.

 

 

 

it'll be interesting to watch how things develop towards the latter half of the month, especially as it enters the outer reaches of the ECM operational. As Ian Ferguson pointed out earlier, there are hints of something better more widely across the country from the longer range ensembles and to an the extent the GFS operational (as mentioned also in the METO update)

 

Still, i'm not really that bothered either way - another hot, humid plume would be nice (if that's what you like, which i do) but average August stuff wouldn't be too bad either IMBY. 

Edited August 9, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[Frosty.]

There is good news from the GEFS 06z mean, a warmer and more anticyclonic spell is shown for the second half of next week across the southern half of the uk and then further on, high pressure builds further north into the uk with the PFJ forced even further north and a very summery pattern with dry and increasingly warm, sunny weather for the late august period which could last well into september, 

[shedhead]

A lot do, and a lot who would have dry, fair and warm conditions from that chart, even Ilchester 

Ilch is bout 25 miles from the Channel coast, so way S of Watford CS.

[summer blizzard]

No real change on the horizon for me, the Euro still verifies best and that suggests a continued mobile,pattern, probably a tad cooler than average depending on cloud amounts at night.

I'm a little wary of the 30 day models personally, its logical that they will be trying to develop hurricanes which as we all know can change the output at short notice when they pour fuel into the Jet.

[Methuselah]

No real change on the horizon for me, the Euro still verifies best and that suggests a continued mobile,pattern, probably a tad cooler than average depending on cloud amounts at night.I'm a little wary of the 30 day models personally, its logical that they will be trying to develop hurricanes which as we all know can change the output at short notice when they pour fuel into the Jet.

That's exactly the reason I take so little notice of them, SB.

[Frosty.]

There is additional good news, following those Gefs 06z charts I posted on the previous page, the latest met office update (6-15 days) supports what the 6z mean is showing with signs of warmer and more settled weather taking over for at least the southern half of the uk not far beyond mid month onwards, this is exactly what the GEFS 06z mean is showing for the last 10 days or so of August, the further outlook is also sounding good with a lot of fine and warm weather through the end of the month into early september although there is no strong signal to support this, it does appear to be more likely than anything unsettled..fingers crossed for a settled and warm spell soon.

[jesusfernandez]

I know it might be off topic but, after all this heat over the past month or so... Does anyone has an idea of what the winter will bring us? will it be a warm winter or will it change radically to a very cold one...

 

looks like the heat has no end a