Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Lincstim]

Frosty thanks for keeping me posted. Really appreciate all the answers to my long list of questions.

[Djdazzle]

GFS 12z continuing the theme from the 6z in terms of weakening the eastward push next week.

[Frosty.]

Some interesting variations between the Gfs 12z and the earlier 6z for next week, the 12z shows a thundery trough moving up from france with a large mass of torrential rain during the middle of next week which only slowly clears  out into the north sea later next week but apart from that it shows a good deal of warm and sunny weather for especially the southern half of the uk and in particular the southeast, temperatures pushing close to 80f for many more days across the southeast of england, even when the hot plume has gone by friday night, so the southeast doing best of all, it's a mixed outlook for next week, the overall pressure pattern looks pretty sluggish with shallow troughs and weak areas of higher pressure and it's not until the following week when the gfs shows the jet becoming aligned more nw-se with troughs sliding southeast from iceland and cooler oceanic air flooding the uk around mid august, however, the current pattern won't change much for the next 7-10 days, the atlantic looks benign for a while yet and changes will be slow, the further outlook is not looking good at the moment but we all know how quickly things can change but the reliable and semi reliable timeframe look warm and mixed, not cool at all apart from under local torrential downpours next week. Anyway, enjoy the scorcher tomorrow across england & wales, it looks sunny for many with temps of 25 to 27c across wales and northern england, nearer 30c for the midlands and closer to 30-32c for the southeastern quarter of england, friday also looks hot and sultry in the east and southeast but less settled with heavy showers scattered around between the sunny spells, scotland and n.ireland look rainy tomorrow but brighter and showery on friday and the weekend with temps into the low 20's celsius, most of the south of britain look fairly dry and bright this weekend with just a few showers and lots of sunshine with temps into the mid 20's celsius, it could be a lot worse.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

Well before any breakdown we have a couple of hot days ahead.

Tomorrow looks fine for England and Wales, just some low cloud in the morning for the South West and the chance of a thunderstorm over the Pennines. Scotland and Ireland look cloudier, cooler and more unsettled. Potentially hitting 90F somewhere in Central, Southern England.

Friday looks hot again in Eastern areas with temperatures looking likely to get close to 30C (I'm going with the GFS temps because they have been far more reliable than the BBC forecasts). Maybe some showers over Norfolk and Lincolnshire but not really too much risk again. Cooler weather will be spreading East with time.

The weekend looks pretty good, showers for western areas, many places staying fine and pleasant. Temperatures peaking at 24-26C in the South East, closer to normal the further north you go.

[forecaster]

Well before any breakdown we have a couple of hot days ahead.

Tomorrow looks fine for England and Wales, just some low cloud in the morning for the South West and the chance of a thunderstorm over the Pennines. Scotland and Ireland look cloudier, cooler and more unsettled. Potentially hitting 90F somewhere in Central, Southern England.

Friday looks hot again in Eastern areas with temperatures looking likely to get close to 30C (I'm going with the GFS temps because they have been far more reliable than the BBC forecasts). Maybe some showers over Norfolk and Lincolnshire but not really too much risk again. Cooler weather will be spreading East with time.

The weekend looks pretty good, showers for western areas, many places staying fine and pleasant. Temperatures peaking at 24-26C in the South East, closer to normal the further north you go.

 

I think there may be too much mid level cloud, as well as cooler airmass, on Friday to hold off the possible 30C. But, look what happened last Saturday! 

I'm going to Wales on the weekend so a bit miffed that it looks pretty cool. The chilly nights will come as a bit of a surprise also. 

Somebody please explain this then please .

.......................................................................................................................................................................................

The Met Office recorded highs of 32C in the South East this week and predicted the mercury could rise above 35C next week.

The last time the country basked in temperatures above 35C was during the heatwave of 2006, when the Met Office weather recording station at Charlwood in Surrey, reached 36.3C. It broke a century-old record.

A warm weekend will give a boost to seaside resorts and further sales of ice creams and barbecues.

But health experts warned that the heat has already caused up to 760 premature deaths, with more elderly and vulnerable people in danger as it gets hotter.

The fire services said there are around 20 grass fires a day, up from just five in normal summer temperatures.

........................................................................................................................................................................................

 

Now who is right and who is wrong - you decide

  

 

 

That's a very old story from the 18th and it turned out right. 33.5C max on the following Monday, not far from 35C at all.

[DTHFCJ]

I think there may be too much mid level cloud, as well as cooler airmass, on Friday to hold off the possible 30C. But, look what happened last Saturday! 

I'm going to Wales on the weekend so a bit miffed that it looks pretty cool. The chilly nights will come as a bit of a surprise also. 

 

 

That's a very old story from the 18th and it turned out right. 33.5C max on the following Monday, not far from 35C at all.

Which part of wales are you going too?..tbh no matter what the weather is the scenery is at times breathtaking(when theres no hill fog!)..enjoy

[forecaster]

Which part of wales are you going too?..tbh no matter what the weather is the scenery is at times breathtaking(when theres no hill fog!)..enjoy

 

I'm from Bridgend originally, so mostly there. But will also be in the valleys for a fair bit of it. I think once the sun drops low on Saturday evening, it will really feel surprisingly chilly. Not actually cold, of course, but unusual compared with the last few weeks.

[DTHFCJ]

I'm from Bridgend originally, so mostly there. But will also be in the valleys for a fair bit of it. I think once the sun drops low on Saturday evening, it will really feel surprisingly chilly. Not actually cold, of course, but unusual compared with the last few weeks.

Bridgend..small world i was in brackla now im in the hills in bettws..like i said enjoy your visit home

[DTHFCJ]

ECM rolling dont look too bad to me not wall to wall sunshine but no washout either..atm.(up to 168 i should say)Up until today the weather has been very good here warm sunny spells and it looks like a pool day tomorrow....again!

well chuffed with this summer even if august does eventually go the way of the pear

Edited July 31, 2013 by BALE1

[lindy2017]

Which part of wales are you going too?..tbh no matter what the weather is the scenery is at times breathtaking(when theres no hill fog!)..enjoy

Its not been cold here for at least 3 weeks or more.....be hot tomorrow ...........

[phil nw.]

ECM rolling dont look too bad to me not wall to wall sunshine but no washout either..atm.(up to 168 i should say)Up until today the weather has been very good here warm sunny spells and it looks like a pool day tomorrow....again!

well chuffed with this summer even if august does eventually go the way of the pear

Yes we can't have too many complaints so far this Summer,certainly plenty of warmth and some storms for that extra interest.

After the brief plume over the next day or so it does look finally as if we will ease into a more typical Summer westerly type of pattern.

UKMO at T72hrs shows the last of the real heat away into the near continent as the flow turns more into the south west.

 

This looks the likely ongoing pattern as we enter the first week of August.The 12z GFS mean for a week away

 

so still some decent weather about especially further south but some showers around and temperatures much closer to normal generally.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm & Gfs 12z both show a very sluggish slack weather pattern throughout next week with shallow troughs and weak ridges switching position but it's all very slow motion and the weather we get next week reflects that, a mixture of sunny periods and scattered heavy slow moving showers with a risk of thunder, warmest across the south with temperatures close to the mid 20's celsius for much of the time and rather closer to the seasonal average further to the north and west, only the far north having anything you could call cool during the next 7-10 days, the ecm eventually powers up the atlantic and sends an angry looking depression towards nw scotland but the southeastern half of the uk look like having some weak ridging during the second half of next week with a lot of fine, mainly dry and warm weather with the northwest of the BI more prone to feeling the effects of an atlantic finally waking up from a long snooze. I am still not convinced we are heading towards a cool and unsettled mid august, as far as I can see, the further outlook remains uncertain. In the meantime, tomorrow looks fantastic for england & wales with sunnier skies pushing up from the south as hot and sultry air spreads up across the uk but scotland and n.ireland look dull and wet with average temps apart from southern scotland where it will dry up later with sunny spells and become very warm.

 

Enjoy the HOT PLUME tomorrow..and friday in the southeast before the storms or heavy showers arrive, there is a kink in the isobars across the southeast later on friday and I think there could be some very active T-Storms in the southeast corner before this plume is finished with us. the southeast quarter of england also look driest and sunniest this weekend with just a few showers and temperatures in the low to mid 20's celsius, good weather for outdoor events.

 

 

[phil nw.]

Yes as Frosty alluded to there's no real sign of an awakening Atlantic yet.

 

Looking at the background signals.

Still trying to get to grips with these but as i understand it Angular momentum tendency(the turning force of the global winds) is still low and there's still no strong or consistent forecast of MJO(organised tropical convection) activity.It.s continued weak state around the Indian Ocean/SE Asia, where it's been for some time.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/glteaam.90day.gif

 

 -click on this for animation.

 

MJO forecasts-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

The Day10 means

 

The developing slow moving westerly pattern seemingly continuing towards mid-August.Little real change to the overall setup other than some lowering of thicknesses further north as the Azores high retreats towards it's home and the shallow upper trough starts to move slowly eastwards to our north.

This is just my overall take on the general pattern over next 2 weeks rather than any attempt to forecast detail other than to repeat my earlier thoughts of a much more average outlook beyond this week,both in temperature and rain amounts.

Ens continue to indicate the SE quarter of the UK would likely see the best conditions.

Edited July 31, 2013 by phil nw.

[draztik]

I am still not convinced we are heading towards a cool and unsettled mid august, as far as I can see

interesting. I cant locate any charts, which show a return to settled, warm conditions post Friday. Certainly, the anomaly charts for the 8-14 day don't support settled conditions.

[Captain Shortwave]

I think there may be too much mid level cloud, as well as cooler airmass, on Friday to hold off the possible 30C. But, look what happened last Saturday! 

I'm going to Wales on the weekend so a bit miffed that it looks pretty cool. The chilly nights will come as a bit of a surprise also. 

Interesting point, firstly maybe I'm a little unconvinced by the cloud amount. Given a SSW drift and also height rises round the bay of Biscay region on Friday I feel the chances of any imported activity looks low and I feel anything developing there will drift harmlessly through Belgium. I think Friday will probably be quite a sunny day with perhaps some high level cloud from the decaying front. Any precipitation will come from isolated storms.

As for the uppers, the GFS seems to want to hold the 16C line until the evening whilst the other models clear it during the early afternoon, this might also make the difference between the two. 

GFS still steadfast on this, 29C widely across the south east

 

We will have to wait and see. Would love to see another hot day, as the offshore winds could possibly push temperatures close to 30C here and considering the sea is just 200m from my house that would be a pretty rare event.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[phil nw.]

A couple of posts have gone.

One line comments attacking another members post is not acceptable.

 

As we keep saying if someone has a different view then please construct a decent reply, preferably with charts to support this.

 

Thank you folks.

[bryan629]

not very often i post here but im an avid watcher, i have learnt to look for trends, work out where FI might be and to keep a level head on the ops, ensembles and anomaly charts...  as many have given a sound explanation of these... john holmes, phil nw , frosty, captain shortwave, gavin ,tamara, anyweather, yes you lot and anyone else i have not mentioned.... oh good old met man and even mushy for their input... thanks so much for the relevance time and effort spent to educate and often in your own ways amuse the lesser learned of us.

 

ill be honest i love the winter, and thought my time was done on here come the end of last march, then april came and went then so did june and ive wathched all this time how our summer has panned out so far....absolutely no complaints their either...its been great so far.

 

Whats really baking my noodle at the moment ( no, its not the sunshine lol) its the way that for weeks the models have been showing persistently a breakdown of sorts and always been pushed back, the models have flipped and flopped repeatedly to bring in the atlantic of sorts now the ECM again is showing a deep low well into FI i might add,as is GFS ..... i just find it a little odd that such as next week we enter a relatively benign period , then the jet fires up suddenly to bring in the atlantic... is it at all possible that the models , including the anomoly charts are really struggling to pick up on signals or just going back to default in the latter parts of the run........as an example last night ecm and tonights ecm.... both show a deep low... is this a trend or is it a default perhaps

[mushymanrob]

oh dear...

 

 

although the path to these similar charts might not be the same, but both the ecm and gfs plus support from the anomaly charts suggest an autumnal outlook to the mid month period.

 

better enjoy todays expected heat, because away from the southeast its becoming unlikely that we will get any more (values of todays heights) IF these charts are onto something and become reality (which is not certain).

[Mark Parsons]

oh dear...

 

Recm2402.gif Rtavn3242.png

 

although the path to these similar charts might not be the same, but both the ecm and gfs plus support from the anomaly charts suggest an autumnal outlook to the mid month period.

 

better enjoy todays expected heat, because away from the southeast its becoming unlikely that we will get any more (values of todays heights) IF these charts are onto something and become reality (which is not certain).

August can be like September, one week summer next week Autumn, none of us should be surprised at those charts they are quite normal I think.........

[draztik]

The Azores high wants to come back and say hello to the UK. This chart offers hope to those wanting such a return

[Frosty.]

The 00z models look very messy next week with shallow troughs mixed with weak ridging, a very sluggish pattern but at least the temperatures look very respectable for early august, the warmest weather across the south and southeastern half of england and pleasantly warm further to the west and north, we all get some rain, mostly in the form of scattered heavy slow moving showers and cracks of thunder but with lots of sunshine between the downpours, the gfs 00z shows a threat of thundery rain for the southeast through the middle of next week or just after but generally it's sunshine and showers with temperatures in the low to mid 20's celsius, the gfs actually shows the weather becoming very warm again for a time next week further southeast, into the low 80's F, pockets of very warm weather last until late next week in the south but there is a gradual tendancy for temperatures to slowly drift back down to average through FI and rather cooler than that across the north of the uk. Looking on the bright side, the Ecm 00z ends with high pressure building in from the southwest, the navgem 00z shows generally higher pressure across the south and the gfs 00z shows decent temperatures for a while longer, it's only in low res when the wheels begin to fall off. In the meantime, the southeast could possibly record the highest temperature of the summer so far, 33.6 celsius or a fraction higher, closer to 26-30c for the majority of england and wales, hot towards the southeast again tomorrow but less settled with a scattering of heavy showers. Scotland & N.Ireland dull and wet today, brighter and warmer in the south later, then brighter and more showery tomorrow and the weekend with temps around 22 celsius.

[Frank Trough]

oh dear...

 

Recm2402.gif Rtavn3242.png

 

although the path to these similar charts might not be the same, but both the ecm and gfs plus support from the anomaly charts suggest an autumnal outlook to the mid month period.

 

better enjoy todays expected heat, because away from the southeast its becoming unlikely that we will get any more (values of todays heights) IF these charts are onto something and become reality (which is not certain).

 

Those charts don't refer to the same period though do they? the ECM operational doesn't go to mid month? and actually, as posted above the last frame of the ECM this morning (for what it's worth) is showing the azores high ridging back towards us? And the GFS at t+342? Plus the anomaly charts give broad guidance - the detail in the positioning of troughs/ridges as we get nearer can make a massive difference to the weather on the ground compared to the broad brush approach of the anomalies? The anomalies in fact gave very poor guidance at the start of July and got the timing of breakdown completely wrong.

 

Nothing suggests a return to the conditions seen through july but to me the rapid firing of the Atlantic that was suggested yesterday seems to have been watered down again today?

 

I'm probably completely wrong but there you go! 

 

Autumn will happen....but hopefully in Autumn!  

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM isn't really that bad, again there wouldn't be too much rain with the UK flirting between tropical maritime and polar maritime air masses. The jet is a lot further north and the troughs are nowhere near as deep compared to yesterday.

There is still uncertainty about the start of next week and how the shallow trough will track over the uk. GFS still digs this further south and is a slower feature. This allows warmer air to affect the UK and give the possibility of some thunderstorms. UKMO/ECM have a similar track passing through the UK quicker.

 

GFS

Quite a difference still.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Lincstim]

Amazing that the rain risk has increased for Saturday for scunny

Again I will say that this just shows how hard it is to predict the forecast when it changes ever 12 hours lol

[Frosty.]

Amazing that the rain risk has increased for Saturday for scunny

Again I will say that this just shows how hard it is to predict the forecast when it changes ever 12 hours lol

Don't worry, where showers occur at this range is near impossible to predict and saturday still looks generally fine and warm with sunny spells and just a few showers dotted around, mostly further northwest.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Frosty039