September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Roger J Smith]

Here are the September CET stats sorry a bit later than usual. Post your forecasts and thoughts.22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)16.8 ... warmest (2006)16.6 ... second warmest (1729)16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)14.4 ... average 2001-201214.0 ... average 1981-201013.7 ... average 1971-200013.6 ... average 1961-199013.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-200013.3 ... average 1659-201213.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 .. 2012 CET12.6 ... average 1659-170011.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)10.7 ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)  

Edited August 22, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

14.5C for now.

 

I suspect with the more active MJO and low pressure still over the pole that Autumn may arrive late in the month with some style (stormy).

[simshady]

Autumn seemed to turn up early last year especially where i live so i'm thinking a largely settled month with quite a bit of high pressure involved leading to a later change to the new season.

 

15,5c

[Stationary Front]

I'll have a punt at 15.1 please

[Summer Sun]

16.1c

[Relativistic]

Well I'd love a sub 11C September but I don't think that is going to happen. I shall give it some time before I make my estimate.

[DeepSnow]

15.2 for me please

[NeilN]

15.1c - Not a 2006 repeat, but I can see a few very warm days happening.

[Isolated Frost]

14.2c

[Lettucing Gutted]

Goodbye southerly tracking jet.  17C 

[geoffw]

14.4

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's a graph of the September CET (blue), 10 year mean (red) and the linear trend (black).

 

 

This summer is likely to finish around 16.2 or 16.3C. So looking at all Septembers following summers of 16.2C or 16.3C, the average September is 14.2C.

 

The correlation between the August CET and September is +0.37, which indicates that warm August tend to be followed by warm Septembers (more so than most other months), and cold Augusts followed by cold Septembers.

[jonboy]

13.9 for Jonboy

[Mark Neal.]

14.7c for me. Starting off settled and warm, but jet stream to come south again and back to Atlantic trough as we head through the month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

As was mentioned in my September forecast, I'll go with 14.8C thanks.

[SteveB]

I'll go for 13.9c

[Roger J Smith]

15.4 -- rather cold at the end to spoil any chances of a top five CET. Summery heat at times before 20th.

[Yarmy]

15.7C for me, cheers.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

13.8C ! 

[CongletonHeat]

14.6

[syed2878]

i cant c the jet staying up north during all of september so i'm going for 14.5c. Thanks.

[Harve]

The most boring month in almost all measures for me. I'll try 14.9c

[AWD]

I'll take 15.0c please

Edited August 27, 2013 by AWD

[Midlands Ice Age]

14.2C  for me please

 

MIA

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 14.5 please...