South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 28/08/13 00z ------------------>

[Mark Neal.]

That is some band of heavy thundery rain to the SW, has some of you in its sight! 

Edited October 1, 2013 by Mark N

[ARTDEMOLE]

Oh No!!!!!

[Mark Neal.]

Oh No!!!!!

?? Oh No to what? 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Thursday's Nasty lunchtime starting downpours of heavy precipitation.

[Mapantz]

Another cloudy day here in the tropics! Temp hit 18C but with the humidty in the 90's it feels quite moist. Dew point of around 16C - hoping for some action later, even if it is just plain rain, as it's been so dull of late.

[BARRY]

 it's chucking it down 

[wimblettben]

Hoping for something thundery to come along later in the night.

 

As usual the stuff that was electrical earlier has faded again as it hit land.

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was mild and rainy yesterday, here. High Temperature: 16.4°C 10:15 High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 20.0 mm/hr 20:16 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 4.4 mm 20:35 Rainfall Yesterday: 5.6 mm.

[Mapantz]

There's flood warnings out here ... for the ants. An impressive 0.4mm fell yesterday! I'm expecting tomorrows Met Office warning to change later, it looks like the worst of it has shifted West. If forecasts are to be believed then they've been pretty wrong here this week.

 

Tropical again, already 18C but 

Edited October 2, 2013 by Mapantz

[Guest William Grimsley]

There's flood warnings out here ... for the ants. An impressive 0.4mm fell yesterday! I'm expecting tomorrows Met Office warning to change later, it looks like the worst of it has shifted West. If forecasts are to be believed then they've been pretty wrong here this week.

 

Tropical again, already 18C but 

Only 0.4 mm? Yeah, I think Devon/Cornwall will see most of the rain as well as the E of England, tomorrow. :O

[Guest William Grimsley]

There are a few rain showers developing over S Dartmoor and Bodmin Moor, slowly pushing NNE towards N Devon and N Cornwall, now.

 

 

There are lots of showers which have developed over Devon, Dorset, Cornwall and Somerset, now.

 

Edited October 2, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Guest William Grimsley]

Weather Alerts for Southern England.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=7;sess=4efaf749bf592d748255ea58c5380daa

[egret]

There's flood warnings out here ... for the ants. An impressive 0.4mm fell yesterday! I'm expecting tomorrows Met Office warning to change later, it looks like the worst of it has shifted West. If forecasts are to be believed then they've been pretty wrong here this week.

 

Tropical again, already 18C but 

METO have just issued  alert for whole of Dorset almost centrally within their 'yellow ' area for this evening and tomorrow

Netweather showing the rain to east and west of us as you also suggest

Dorset seems to be avoiding the worst of the wet (which is why its a nice place to live!!) 

[George]

Raining heavily now, current temperature 17.2C here.

[Andy Bown]

Not had many of these types of days this Summer / early Autumn ; sunshine and short sharp showers.

 

Warm, humid and breezy with it, 19.1c with humidity 92%!!!

[Mapantz]

As i was returning from hospital, i could see dark clouds ahead, as i got on to a straight-ish road, you could see fallstreak and it went pretty much white. I was dry one side and then hit the line, it sounded like a load of marbles hitting the car. hehe  

 

Still 18C, 91% humidity - dew point of 17C

Edited October 2, 2013 by Mapantz

[AWD]

A lovely convective day here today. Frequent sharp showers throughout the afternoon amiss the changing shades of cloudcover and types.

Some large raindrops associated with the showers too. Further heavy rain tomorrow before things turn rather benign again.

[Guest William Grimsley]

As i was returning from hospital, i could see dark clouds ahead, as i got on to a straight-ish road, you could see fallstreak and it went pretty much white. I was dry one side and then hit the line, it sounded like a load of marble hitting the car. hehe  

 

Still 18C, 91% humidity - dew point of 17C

Yes, went to Exeter and hit a heavy shower. I love the sound of rain hitting the car roof.

[ARTDEMOLE]

5.3mm rain fallen today..17.8c. Humidity 92%. Cloud Base 534 ft.

[RCT]

Absolutely chucking it down!! 

[AWD]

Looking like a very wet period of weather for some of us tomorrow. A look at some of the higher res models show a similiar story of a clump of very heavy rainfall coming up from the south. At this stage, I think Cornwall could miss the very worse of it, with Devon bearing the brunt of some torrential downpours. Torbay, up into Exeter and round towards Weymouth looks to be the area where the heaviest rain makes landfall. This shown by the Meto UKV radar projectory;

Also, pinched from twitter, the Meto HRES model shows a very similiar scenario, with Devon and later, into Somerset seeing some torrential downpours;

The NAE shows it more spread out across the South West however, with heavy, but no exceptional totals shown:

My personal thoughts are that it will be more localised than what the NAE shows. I think, as I said earlier, Devon, West Dorset, the Mendips over towards the Bristol Channel will be the key areas to watch tomorrow. Exmoor and the Mendips, with their elevation, could be rotten places to be tomorrow afternoon.

This all associated with the warm vector of air being pumped up from the sub tropics. A lot of humidity and moisture building in this airmass, ready to implode over the West Country;

Accumulative amounts are very hard to predict in scenarios like this, at a guess, I'm thinking 20mm - 30mm in the worst hit places. Bearing in mind, most of that will fall in an hour or two, it is likely to cause a lot of surface water and some flash flooding in prone places.

Again, the worst of the rainfall is favoured to hit places, IMO, like Torbay, Exeter over towards Axeminster, up towards Yeovil, the Mendips across towards Bridgwater, Minehead, Exmoor. Then later in the day, possibly North Somerset, the Bristol and Bath area and up towards the Forest of Dean although I'm uncertain as to how much decay might evolve by this stage.

EDIT: Have no idea why my images aren't showing.

Edited October 2, 2013 by SeasonalWeatherWatcher

[Bristawl Si]

Where's AWD lately? Havent seen him on here for quite a while.

[Dorsetbred]

METO have just issued  alert for whole of Dorset almost centrally within their 'yellow ' area for this evening and tomorrow

Netweather showing the rain to east and west of us as you also suggest

Dorset seems to be avoiding the worst of the wet (which is why its a nice place to live!!) 

If it follows last nights pattern where it split as it came over Poole, then it's 

"Rain to the east of me, Rain to the west of me, here I am stuck in the middle in Poole"

[AWD]

Where's AWD lately? Havent seen him on here for quite a while.

Still here!

[Bristawl Si]

Still here!

Ah....you've changed your name! And location!