Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

 Share

Recommended Posts

Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Anything brewing in the Bay of Biscay yet Coast ??

there still looks like a lot of cloud that the cyclone could drag up through the BoB and send around towards us:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Models a bit pants at this range really but for what they are worth, GFS says:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

The moisture flow chart is the most encouraging of the GFS suite for later:

 

Posted Image

 

Doppler radar for the Atlantic side of France and the BoB area has sparse coverage, but check out the approaches here:

 

http://meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Edited by Coast
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Wave 1 appears to be spontaneously dying when hit hits East Anglia, like every other southerly event this year Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

GFS still going with a glancing blow later:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

More rain to come at least from NAE:

 

Posted Image

 

Not as much from MetO:

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Some models have tonight's action clipping the far SE and EA, some models have it to the west with the SW, West Country, Wales and the W Mids, other models have it running through the middle of those two areas. Putting all that together I would say that somewhere will get some good thunderstorms overnight, with France looking a good bet as well as some equatorial regions Posted Image

 

............ and Lincolnshire!

Edited by Supacell
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

I don't see why people are moaning. We had thunder this morning and so did many other places in Devon. To be honest, it is just where you are and where the thunder is. I suppose one day you will be in my situation like this morning and I won't. But I have to say, there was some good thunder this morning. *smug* :rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

We had a few hours of heavy rain, 17.5mm so far and now seems to be clearing. Not the torrential downpours and local flooding with up to 50mm in places as forecast. Just a bog standard rain event really. Another area of heavy rain tonight could provide some interest though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I don't see why people are moaning. We had thunder this morning and so did many other places in Devon. To be honest, it is just where you are and where the thunder is. I suppose one day you will be in my situation like this morning and I won't. But I have to say, there was some good thunder this morning. *smug* Posted Image

 

 You don't see it because you got something out of it. Boot and other foot springs to mind.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

I don't see why people are moaning. We had thunder this morning and so did many other places in Devon. To be honest, it is just where you are and where the thunder is. I suppose one day you will be in my situation like this morning and I won't. But I have to say, there was some good thunder this morning. *smug* Posted Image

 

Personally I am not moaning, just having a laugh. All joking aside, the rain that brought thunder to Devon was always set to die out a bit as it pushed north east (at least in terms of sferic activity) as the instability is not over us all yet.

 

In my view it is what is modelled to come across us tonight that is likely to bring more widespread sferic activity - the problem being where is it actually going to go? NAE model it coming into the SW, moving across the West Country and then into the Midlands. GFS on the other hand appears to show the same band of rain moving north across Wales. GFS also shows very impressive CAPE values across the east but with no rain associated with it. 

 

BBC look to be going with the NAE version, but both BBC and Met Office make a bit more of the showers likely to break out in eastern parts. It's all up in the air at the moment and I guess we will have to see what visits us from France and Biscay later, or watch the radar for any storms that erupt over the SE third of the UK (which will then drift NE).

Edited by Supacell
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

In my view it is what is modelled to come across us tonight that is likely to bring more widespread sferic activity - the problem being where is it actually going to go? NAE model it coming into the SW, moving across the West Country and then into the Midlands. GFS on the other hand appears to show the same band of rain moving north across Wales. GFS also shows very impressive CAPE values across the east but with no rain associated with it. 

 

There is talk of a SW to NE movement on it, the WRF shows it doing that over night, into tomorrow morning. More radar watching again.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Sferics out in the BoB at the mo,could prove some interest to the SW of the uk again

 

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1

 

also,shower activity brewing N of francePosted Image

 

p.s just got a absolute soaking picking the daughter up from schoolPosted Image

Edited by allseasons-si
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

Sferics out in the BoB at the mo,could prove some interest to the SW of the uk again

 

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1

 

also,shower activity brewing N of francePosted Image

 

p.s just got a absolute soaking picking the daughter up from schoolPosted Image

Lets all hope they miss Williams location......WHERE WAS IT AGAIN!!!!!!Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Bit of light rain out of it but we weren't in the warning area anyway. Two short heavier bursts for about minute early on. The front didn't really split just weakened from the middle outwards. Like an old tree with rot inside.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Lets all hope they miss Williams location......WHERE WAS IT AGAIN!!!!!!Posted Image

Blol!

 

He could get a second helping though paul,where as quiet a few on us are really on rashions,hope something brews here  tonight though,but hopefully not after 11pm,if so,there will be no sleep from me ha! ha!Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Latest rain radar grab from the BoB and my arrow to show general direction:

 

post-6667-0-41701900-1380812349_thumb.jp

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/france.html

 

Cb's in that too:

 

Posted Image

 

post-6667-0-14073800-1380812553_thumb.jp

 

http://www.strikestareu.com/sslt/sslt.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Coast.. that stuff in BOB and Spain is dead.. NEXT¬!

What did you do? Drive a stake through it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

However more kicking off now LOL 

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...