scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[A Winter's Tale]

Coldest night since April and it's nice to see -5C at Glasgow airport again this year. I wonder how low it will drop before dawn? No fog just now but if there is some fog tomorrow morning then it would keep the temperature below 0C. Hopefully the maximum stays below 5C for the first time this season. 

[blitzen]

Morning. -2.2c here with a frost.   Had a quick look through 00z GFS and there is a difference this morning with regards to something moving this stagnant pattern along in the form of a brief northerly toppler next week. I hate northerlies for here but others can benefit.

 

 

Copied from the MOD for those who don't venture in:

 

 

A warming forecast again and getting stronger.   One to keep an eye on to see if it gains momentum:

 deep fi the Atlantic ridge looks like coming back , maybe signs of a western -NAO ?
And much closer than those We have the possibility of another northerly outbreak? Only a toppler at the moment but more interest in the models today than yesterday . . . Thankfully !

Attached Thumbnails

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A cold spell for early December?

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Edited November 22, 2013 by Blitzen

[mardatha]

Was minus 5 here when the husband got up. I send minions to check the temp, is too cauld for me. I lie in bed until the tea and porridge have been made. Looking nice though and we're actually going OOT today, to fabulous exciting exotic Selkirk. ( to the Vauxhall garage. I know how to live).

[Northernlights]

Oc and partially overcast here this morning although ground quite frozen.

[blitzen]

Was minus 5 here when the husband got up. I send minions to check the temp, is too cauld for me. I lie in bed until the tea and porridge have been made. Looking nice though and we're actually going OOT today, to fabulous exciting exotic Selkirk. ( to the Vauxhall garage. I know how to live).

Funny that! I have a feeling that I am going to be dragged along to Arnold Clarke's pretty soon. He is definitely hankering for a newer model.  (might be talking about me though! ) Probably to include sampling some of Scotland's finest cuisine - (the nearest burger van!)

Edited November 22, 2013 by Blitzen

[Highland Snow]

Minimum last night -5.8C.

[BleakMidwinter]

 Looking nice though and we're actually going OOT today, to fabulous exciting exotic Selkirk. ( to the Vauxhall garage. I know how to live).

Ooh wow! Send us a postcard and bring us back a stick of rock! :)Beautiful day here in suburban south Embra - still and chill and pale-yellow sunlight. Might get oot myself, as far as Morningside, if I have the energy… we;re a wild and fearless crew in here, right enough!

[Poots]

Was minus 5 here when the husband got up. I send minions to check the temp, is too cauld for me. I lie in bed until the tea and porridge have been made. Looking nice though and we're actually going OOT today, to fabulous exciting exotic Selkirk. ( to the Vauxhall garage. I know how to live).

 

I'll also be in exotic Selkirk for the next 2 days for the Pootettes ballet show, I'll give the Vauxhaull garage a wave on the way past 

 

It was -5c here at 8am this morning and has only risen to -4c now, brrr! But, it's a lovely morning with all the frost twinkling in the sun.

[Ravelin]

Also, 'trolling', or baiting, heavy sarcasm or even just plain bullying have become part of mainstream internet activity. This particular corner is refreshingly free of horribleness.

 

Being borderline old and borderline computer geek (probably more than borderline when I was younger) I've been at this internet thingy since before it even really existed i.e. using a dial-up modem to directly call a bulletin board and get excited at some ASCII text pictures. In the old days "trolling" was pretty much unheard of, now, as the internet has become mainstream, it's become an epidemic. I say we should reclaim the internet for the geeks. Then again, analyzing weather model output in itself is a pretty geeky pastime so if the model thread is full of trolls then maybe even the geeks have been corrupted.

 

Personally I've never understood the mentality behind deliberate trolling. There so many other better things to spend your short life doing than trying to wind up a bunch of people you've never met and don't really know.

 

Anyway, back to the nice people on this thread and the proper subject..... -1C at 8am with a slight frost. Currently a mixture of sun and blue skies but also a patchy layer of thin white/grey cloud. Virtually no wind so quite a decent morning all in.

[over_the_rainbow]

I'm wondering if this could be the first ice day? Still below freezing here. I'm a bit miffed because I want to go out and I was hoping the sun would melt the ice off the car to save me doing it!! 

[Hairy Celt]

Minimum last night -5.8C.

 

1C minimum here! Only up to 3C now though...

Edited November 22, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[Gogoslo]

Afternoon all from grey and chilly Aberdeen. Would somebody be so kind to post the email address for BUS so that I can send some photos ?  

 

Great to see the temps from around Scotland..   I have a couple of oregan clocks that record the temp with the use of a couple of outside sensors. Can somebody tell me how accurate these things actually are ?

 

ta

[Cheggers]

Stunning day, was -4 earlier @10am when we started moving boxes. Got a clearer view of the snaw caps in the Perthshire lowlands from new front room.

[Zenarcher]

Nice day here clear and sunny but very cold it got down to -3.9c last night. Lots of ice around and strange enough I saw the council cut the grass a few days ago probably because it was sunny.

[blitzen]

Didn't quite manage an ice day here as it got up to 1,2c in the afternoon. Currently 0.4c. Lovey day though not a  cloud in sight!

[Buriedundersnow]

right I have been kind of ignoring the models for a little while recently but something has raised my interest in this morning runs and I think we could have a chance and not in FI but coming into the closer range like I pointed out.

 

we will have to watch the models and see how they develop this or not over the next few days

 

this is a chance but only that for now just a chance

 

area of interest is 168h on both models it is looking better on the GFS at the moment with the ECM slightly worse it will all depend on what model comes toward the other

 

here is the GFS 0z and as we see the model isn't far from a solution that will attempt to push heights toward Greenland as its trying to develop some WAA I've posted the chart then one with a little paint to show

 

black line: attempting WAA

 

black arrow: if we get WAA where the heights might go

 

yellow arrow: the flood gates would open

 

 

now the 6z has this same feature as well

 

 

as we see the ECM has something similar but not as well orientated for cold chances

 

 

now it may well be just a toppler but it is one to watch as this wouldn't take much to develop and try placing heights to our northwest but then again note of caution the models might have it right as well its just something to watch the next few days

 

if we don't get that then as pointed out by BLITZEN earlier in the thread the GFS is pointing toward something in FI which is of interest and it isn't modelling anything consistent but it is wanting to have attempts which is encouraging enough

 

heres the last two attempts in FI and as you see they are different but both pointing toward Greenland which is the good sign for us anyway

 

 

so in summary keep an eye on the closer range from 168 onwards as a chance something may develop here then on from that we may have another attempt 5 days later or so.

[Buriedundersnow]

 

*REMINDER*

 

right I will start taking pics to see if I can get a winter video made

 

I will start with last year as this will allow people time to dig out pics of previous years so only looking for pics from last winter/spring 12/13 no others as things can get very confusing very quickly.

 

BuriedUnderSnow@hotmail.co.uk

 

should you have any pics plz send them to this address with

 

USERNAME USED ON THIS SITE

 

LOCATION (not your street or anything like that just town will be fine)

 

DATE OF WHEN EACH PICTURE WAS TAKEN

 

if you do decide to send me in pictures to add into the video I will

 

NEVER FORWARD YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS FROM THIS ACCOUNT OR SAVE IT

 

ONLY EVER SEND A RESPONSE IF THERE IS A QUERY ABOUT A PICTURE

 

DELETE THE E-MAIL YOU SEND AS SOON AS I HAVE FINISHED MODIFYING IT FOR THE VIDEO AND ARE HAPPY I DONT NEED IT ANYMORE

 

many thanks BUS

Edited November 22, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Zenarcher]

It's Greenock weathermaster, they do strange things in that town, as you'll now know

 

Sure is the most bizarre thing I've seen so far is a ned getting chased by a pigeon.

[Buriedundersnow]

Sure is the most bizarre thing I've seen so far is a ned getting chased by a pigeon.

 

 

that's brilliant.

 

nearly choked on my toast lol

[Buriedundersnow]

another little positive sign for those who believe this helps (me being one of them) it looks like the sun may be going quiet again and coming out of solar max as the sunspot numbers have gone down over the last week

 

Daily Sun: 22 Nov 13

None of these sunspots pose a threat for strong solar flares. Solar activity is low. Credit: SDO/HMI
 

Sunspot number: 85  
 

[jon_d1983]

another little positive sign for those who believe this helps (me being one of them) it looks like the sun may be going quiet again and coming out of solar max as the sunspot numbers have gone down over the last week

 

Daily Sun: 22 Nov 13

None of these sunspots pose a threat for strong solar flares. Solar activity is low. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 85  

 

 

What does that mean BUS i am not really up on the sun activity and affecting weather patterns

[Buriedundersnow]

had to link this in here its BFTV's winter forecast from the winter thread and he is looking for all three winter months to be blocked and below average

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/?p=2843225

[Buriedundersnow]

What does that mean BUS i am not really up on the sun activity and affecting weather patterns

 

it is said if solar activity is low is can affect and slow down the Jetstream which allows it to develop a pattern that is more like this

 

black line is Jetstream

 

 

as opposed to being like this

 

 

which in turn allows us to develop blocking to our north and can then stall out and allow the pattern to stick which is why we see blocks staying around for so long

 

personally I think there are other things that may be happening as well as this but this is what seems to be documented as happening

[blitzen]

Dunno about this either, but worth a  read:

 

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=1073

Edited November 22, 2013 by Blitzen

[jon_d1983]

it is said if solar activity is low is can affect and slow down the Jetstream which allows it to develop a pattern that is more like this

 

black line is Jetstream

 

g1.pnggfsnh-2013112206-0-336.png

 

as opposed to being like this

 

g2.pnggfsnh-2011112206-0-372.png

 

which in turn allows us to develop blocking to our north and can then stall out and allow the pattern to stick which is why we see blocks staying around for so long

 

personally I think there are other things that may be happening as well as this but this is what seems to be documented as happening

 

Cheers BUS makes sense