scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[November13]

Having looked at the charts it's going to be an up down,up down December. Well certainly early December, with no intense or prolonged cold at present. Too many pockets of warm air circulating about. If we can get rid of them mid December, then things might change. Small chance of snow this Friday for a day at least!

[Buriedundersnow]

cheers for the link LORENZO.

 

sorry bout my little thing last night it just gets to me hearing from loads on other threads we're done till January and thngs of that nature.

 

back to the output though and the GFS 6z took a drop on its mean in the 6z run took a hit today might be something to keep an eye on.

 

heres the last four runs to compare

 

[edo]

Thanks for asking Misty, gives me a chance to dig this one out, one of my best Winter memories. Was at a football match with my Dad, and it got abandoned at half time, couldn't make it home, ended up staying at a friends as the roads were completely drifted out.

archivesnh-1984-1-3-12-0.pngarchives-1984-1-3-12-0.png

Not identical , but for our location shows the evolution is not impossible. At present, I would say unlikely in terms of December 2013, we can only hope !!

 

oooh the charts are boring when CMD is looking at +384 and Lorenzo trots out the 1984 postponement chart.  

 

I think we have chatted re this before... I was living in Aberdeen at the time and I am sure it was Aberdeen v Celtic and the dons were 3 nil up with a scintillating performance before an incredible blizzard covered everything in 15mins flat....I still recall it vividly as a 10yrold lad at the time...... even Fergie couldnt have moaned re abandonment though.... took forever to get home to Newtonhill with Dad having to try and drive on cats eyes to have awareness of where the road was. Must try and look it up to see if it was actually Celtic 

[LomondSnowstorm]

cheers for the link LORENZO.

 

sorry bout my little thing last night it just gets to me hearing from loads on other threads we're done till January and thngs of that nature.

 

back to the output though and the GFS 6z took a drop on its mean in the 6z run took a hit today might be something to keep an eye on.

 

heres the last four runs to compare

 

9.gif10.gif11.gif12.gif

 

They're all pretty respectable for the end of November, with the mean sitting around -3/-4C for most of FI. Bear in mind also that -5C uppers in a northwesterly flow with low heights is a lot more useful than -5C in an easterly flow, so in spite of minima probably being significantly higher than we've seen in the HP of the last few days the risk of snowfall from these kinds of setups is quite good.

The +192 mean highlights the cool/cold zonality potential, with the Atlantic and Pacific ridges 'squeezing' the vortex towards Scandinavia with a NW/SE tilted jet:

The ECM ens is more muted and more HP dominated but there are similarities by +240:

I've often wondered if there was some kind of pattern to cold zonality outbreaks because, in terms of longer term forecasting, predicting that we'll have a strong vortex is a lot easier than working out whether it will be favourable for cold outbreaks for Scotland, in particularly because most of these outbreaks are either transient or non-existent south of the Lake District, and are often associated with above average temperatures for most of western Europe and the mid latitudes. The composite map below shows most of the major cold zonality events of the last 40 years, with the Highland Blizzard of January 1978, most of the main snowfalls of January 1984, the Braer storm of January '93, the Christmas Day northwesterly of 2004 and early December 2011:

Pretty much as I thought - the Aleutian Ridge (a likely major feature for this winter) is key to 'squeezing' the vortex over to our side, with Atlantic ridging also key to directing the cold air on the right trajectory.

Anyway, that's essentially what we're looking for in the next week or two in the hunt for snow and cold.

It's not 'pretty' in the sense that it involves a +NAO and a neutral/positive AO but actually for us it's very effective, and with the added bonus that you don't have the constant ramp/TOORP cycles on the MT because it's no use to anyone 'darn sarf'.

Edited November 26, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

Tanked out at -5.8C the coldest yet.

 

The frozen bottle of juice in the wife's car this morning confirms this low temp

[edo]

turns out was aberdeen v st johnstone and here is an extract from a footy messageboard

 

"That was a mental day.Aberdeen was unplayable in that first half and how it was only 3 at half time I'll never know. 6 or 7 would have been a more accurate reflection of how well we played.As soon as the referee blew for half time the mother of all snow storms started. Within 5 mins the pitch was covered and it was dinging down. Seem to recall efforts to clear the lines but it was hopeless. My old man was driving and got us to leave at that point. Good call because it allowed us to get to the car where we heard the game had been abandoned. Scary drive to Stonehaven with my uncle hanging out the window at one point telling my dad how close to the kerb he was.Plan was to ditch the car and take a train for the rest of the journey but we'd have waited hours. Went into Stonehaven town to try and sit out the storm. Total power failure but my uncle and I still got into a pub where we didn't have to buy a drink - locals were sitting by candle light ordering the rounds. Chanced the drive up the brae at Dunnottar and on reaching Bervie there was no snow at all. Folks back home didn't believe the stories of the snow storms and blackouts till they appeared in the papers the next day." 

 

I should add had incredible thundersnow later that night or the following night and there was also some time off school #goodtimes

[blitzen]

Currently 2.1c here with the odd frost pocket still. Shouldn't think it will go much higher now until later on.  Overnight low was 1.3c here.

6z was a bit of an abortion I believe? Couldn't muster up the enthusiasm to look!

With regards to the Pacific ridge?  Is this what Tamara's post was referring to when she said she couldn't see anything sustained in the foreseeable and that we would need this replaced by a trough? If that is indeed the case then I will know what to look out for. Too advanced for me I'm afraid.  Still, if cold zonality could materialise akin to some of the above dates, then bring it on!

Edited November 25, 2013 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Currently 2.1c here with the odd frost pocket still. Shouldn't think it will go much higher now until later on.  Overnight low was 1.3c here.

6z was a bit of an abortion I believe? Couldn't muster up the enthusiasm to look!

With regards to the Pacific ridge?  Is this what Tamara's post was referring to when she said she couldn't see anything sustained in the foreseeable and that we would need this replaced by a trough? If that is indeed the case then I will know what to look out for. Too advanced for me I'm afraid.

 

Having re-read it I think it's more that we can't keep going on with a setup where the Pacific/Aleutian Ridge coexists with a positive Arctic Oscillation/strong vortex and that if we don't see the vortex split properly the Ridge will eventually get bulldozed, replaced with a trough and then it's goodbye to cold until later on in the winter when the +QBO wanes a bit. I don't entirely buy that analysis but it is a possibility.

It ties in quite well with that anomaly chart I posted showing that basically we need the ridge on the other side of the pole to hold for as long as possible to give us a shot at cool/cold zonality. If it does eventually wane by, say, mid December it wouldn't be a great omen for cold for much of the rest of the month (although we could still just about squeeze out a UK high and some surface cold if we were lucky) but on the other hand it would tie in pretty well with my LRF

[Highland Snow]

Maximum temperature today a tropical +1.3C! Cloud has spilled in so tonight may be a tad milder.

[blitzen]

Having re-read it I think it's more that we can't keep going on with a setup where the Pacific/Aleutian Ridge coexists with a positive Arctic Oscillation/strong vortex and that if we don't see the vortex split properly the Ridge will eventually get bulldozed, replaced with a trough and then it's goodbye to cold until later on in the winter when the +QBO wanes a bit. I don't entirely buy that analysis but it is a possibility.

It ties in quite well with that anomaly chart I posted showing that basically we need the ridge on the other side of the pole to hold for as long as possible to give us a shot at cool/cold zonality. If it does eventually wane by, say, mid December it wouldn't be a great omen for cold for much of the rest of the month (although we could still just about squeeze out a UK high and some surface cold if we were lucky) but on the other hand it would tie in pretty well with my LRF

Thank for the explanation LS - now I understand.

[A Winter's Tale]

A similar day to yesterday with grey, benign winter conditions. Yesterday's high was 2C and after a low of -7C a couple of days earlier, those values have equalled the lowest maximum/minimum values of the entirety of the 2011/2012 season. So far today's high is 1C at the airport - currently the joint coldest of the year. It will be a shame to lose this spell of winter weather but it has been a decent period of early winter weather in what has been a November to look back on. Potentially a return to cooler weather for the last couple of days before we start winter. Although the mood in the MT has not been all that enthusiastic about the prospect of zonality, the first half of December looks like being of interest to us with the potential for cold zonality.

 

Early December last year saw some lying snow staying on the ground for a few days. A frontal snowfall followed by crisp, clear, cold and settled winter weather made for some festive spell. The year before was quite similar except the snow was more confined to western areas thanks to some NWly interludes. It would be a pleasure to at least have some snow on the ground during the run-up to Christmas and so too a fair-share of some chilly/cold weather. The details from the models vary from each run but there is a decent prospect of some form of cold-zonality and this opens up the possibilities for snow showers in polar maritime incursions. Yes, it might not be a blocked, sustained, potent cold spell scenario but this sort of set-up is what gives us a shot at cold and wintry weather during the season when there isn't any HLB on the horizon. It may not be the best scenario for everyone but this sort of set-up should give a good number of areas a chance of seeing some falling snow and during more potent spells there could be some more significant, accumulating snow. Northern and western away from the coast tend to do pretty well. In more central areas and around Glasgow in the past NWly incursions can be the best source for snow - although, snow is never a simple thing around here. Certainly, there's potential for the first half of December. 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Just saw on the front page there. Macrihanish 8c, Glasgow (Airport)  0.1c. What a difference over a short distance.

[LomondSnowstorm]

12Z GFS throws down the gauntlet in FI with an absolute stoater of a run:

Culminating in a proper vortex split and screaming Arctic northerly:

One of the more extreme options on the table but certainly not beyond the realms of possibility and it would deliver a hell of a lot of snow,with sub -5C uppers pretty much continously from +192 onwards.

[Buriedundersnow]

would like to say apologies to all for my little rant last night and hope I didn't cause any offence to anyone I just tend to get a little head strong about things and with all this talk floating around the threads that we aren't going to see much meaningful till the end of January just kind of got to me a little as spending all summer and autumn waiting for the colder times to come around and to have the chase/hunt for snow come again then to be getting told before winter has even started we're looking towards January just takes all the fun of the hunt away if your being told theres not much hope.

 

again apologies if I caused any problems as its hard to judge when posting just how things come across and how different people take your posts so if I have came across badly and a bit harsh i'm sorry.

[Buriedundersnow]

the 12z GEFS seems to have taken a dip in the medium term with less warmer options than the 6z

 

[Harve]

Just saw on the front page there. Macrihanish 8c, Glasgow (Airport)  0.1c. What a difference over a short distance.

It's been a pretty poor day and if it continues like that for days on end, as it easily can do, then it's my least favourite type of weather. On the other hand, remove the cloud and you've got cool, crisp sunshine, like on Friday or Saturday, and it's perfect.A damp 0c in Scotland, on dreich days like these, honestly feels colder than -10c in dry weather on the continent.

[blitzen]

Nothing untoward in any of your posts BUS, wot you on about?! At the end of the day, they are all just forecasts and your opinion is just as valuable  as the rest.

No one, I don't care who they are, can 100% tell what the weather is going to do.....just ask MICHAEL FISH!

Personally, I think with November having been on the chilly side this year, all of our expectations are too high for now. It is STILL only Autumn and  there will probably be many, many talking points after this winter is done with.  Trouble is, we all love the chase and are a highly impatient bunch when it comes to searching for  snow. That's why we 're here.

[Highland Snow]

would like to say apologies to all for my little rant last night and hope I didn't cause any offence to anyone I just tend to get a little head strong about things and with all this talk floating around the threads that we aren't going to see much meaningful till the end of January just kind of got to me a little as spending all summer and autumn waiting for the colder times to come around and to have the chase/hunt for snow come again then to be getting told before winter has even started we're looking towards January just takes all the fun of the hunt away if your being told theres not much hope.

 

again apologies if I caused any problems as its hard to judge when posting just how things come across and how different people take your posts so if I have came across badly and a bit harsh i'm sorry.

Takes a BIG MAN to say sorry BUS. You are an asset to the Kilted Thread so keep up the good work.

[Buriedundersnow]

Nothing untoward in any of your posts BUS, wot you on about?! At the end of the day, they are all just forecasts and your opinion is just as valuable  as the rest.

No one, I don't care who they are, can 100% tell what the weather is going to do.....just ask MICHAEL FISH!

Personally, I think with November having been on the chilly side this year, all of our expectations are too high for now. It is STILL only Autumn and  there will probably be many, many talking points after this winter is done with.  Trouble is, we all love the chase and are a highly impatient bunch when it comes to searching for  snow. That's why we 're here.

 

its just sometimes its really hard to know how you are coming across when posting in here as where if your talking its easy to tell with tone of voice etc and I wouldn't want anyone to take me in the wrong way.

 

just with the amount of people on the site saying nothing till January and I just like the chase and think it will get extremely boring if we wont be looking for anything for ages and have winters where we are being told that.

 

I know we more times than not need the strat for good cold and snow but I still want to believe we can get a really cold couple of weeks with some snow on the ground even if its only a covering no matter how the cold the strat is and I guess it just got to me a little seeing so many posts like there has been lately.

 

Takes a BIG MAN to say sorry BUS. You are an asset to the Kilted Thread so keep up the good work.

 

thanks HIGHLAND SNOW

I only went to work for a day and came home to chart chaos, I don't even know where to start, although LS has done a good chunk of it earlier. Where did the quiet ten days with our Homer High disappear to? There seems to be quite a bit of interest at various points, although a good chunk of it is in FI.

 

yip plenty of hinting its about time now we seen something decent even if its only a 3 day spell

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS anomalies still not looking pretty from a cold point of view but the good point from it is more of the continent is cooling and the warm anomalies over western Russia seem to be not as severe as they have been.

 

[Zenarcher]

Another cold day here with plenty of fog around especially in the morning. A calm wind and stayed dry too. Looks like milder temperatures for the next few days but perhaps getting slightly colder from Friday into the weekend.

[NorthernRab]

GFS anomalies still not looking pretty from a cold point of view but the good point from it is more of the continent is cooling and the warm anomalies over western Russia seem to be not as severe as they have been.

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

That's only for the next week BUS - the period of interest is after this, and it only covers three days of winter so chin up 

[Buriedundersnow]

theres been a slight downward trend going on with the GEFS with todays 06z and 12z seeing a more marked drop so will be interesting to see if the 18z keeps up the trend

 

[Snowlover2]

Anyone seen the pictures of the snow in Ontario? Insanely jealous. No fair

[jon_d1983]

Look like the US of A is having a blast just now!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25092980