scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[blitzen]

Aye but there is another side to that. Misery and debt in numbers. Can we not aspire to do something better than just exist. The current debt and mess reflects poorly on the UK culture and economic strategy.

I haven't read it yet but, I am uncomfortable with the fact that we will probably apply to join the European Union.

I have no wish to become another glorified German state. Some independence!

[Highland Snow]

Aye but there is another side to that. Misery and debt in numbers. Can we not aspire to do something better than just exist. The current debt and mess reflects poorly on the UK culture and economic strategy.

 

I'll not mention Royal Bank of Scotland then!

[Highland Snow]

Maximum today a balmy 7.8C with 1.8mm of rain. Skies brightening now and currently 7.4C.

[Ravelin]

I'll not mention Royal Bank of Scotland then!

Oh god I hate to add to a political debate in a weather forum but....wasn't the Royal Bank (& all the others) failure mostly to do with UK economic policy that took a "hand off" approach to legislation in the financial sector? Now that's not to say that had Scotland been Independent that it wouldn't have had similarly lax policies and potentially either bankrupted the country or been forced to let then bank fail. Iceland was more exposed to the financial mess through it's banks than most countries but I haven't heard much about them recently. Certainly no stories of starving citizens and mass emigration.

 

On a more weather related item, the temperature contrast at Aboyne in the last 24hrs is quite impressive. At 1pm last night it hit a low of -2.4C and so far today at 3pm it's hit a max of 9.9C.

[lorenzo]

see when it comes to the strat I wonder if I am even thinking of it right i'll try and explain how I see it a little.

 

i'm using a crazy person as the trop and a sensible hat as the strat and a punch as wave activity.

 

the way I'm thinking of it is coming into autumn the trop is a crazy person who had just put on there sensible hat and the sensible hat works from top to bottom working the sensibleness down its hat trying to reach your head to take the craziness away but before the hat can take full affect if you were to receive a punch which crazys up your head more and in turn knocks the bottom part of the sensible hat out of kilter which the top of the hat has to try and overcome and sort out but if before the hat can get itself sorted out your always open to more craziness from further punches preventing the hat from connecting the sensibleness with your head and this continues till the hat takes over which eventually it will and the only way to get rid of the sensibleness all together is by burning the hat (SSW) but till the hat takes over fully and we have the need for burning it (SSW) we are open to seeing the craziness spill over to our part of the head due to the punches being felt and not just shrugged off.

 

hope that makes sense

 

The strat has got his hat on.. hip hip hip hooray...  I get some of this Buried, the punches being Wave 1 and Wave 2 Activity on the vortex. As Catch said, a real classic !

Folks,

 

Would like to point you towards the excellent thread in the Serious Discussion forum started by Scottish Skier for all the political debate/discussion.

 

I am sure that reading through that thread in itself will leave you more informed than the paper published today !

 

Am not for moderating heavily so would love it if you could continue over there.

 

Thanks,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69584-scottish-politics-2011-2016/

Edited November 26, 2013 by lorenzo

[DR(S)NO]

Not much happening in the weather then? BBC forecast sums up the next couple of days ....bland and boring.

So that'll be dull and 10c then!!

[Highland Snow]

The strat has got his hat on.. hip hip hip hooray...  I get some of this Buried, the punches being Wave 1 and Wave 2 Activity on the vortex. As Catch said, a real classic !

Folks,

 

Would like to point you towards the excellent thread in the Serious Discussion forum started by Scottish Skier for all the political debate/discussion.

 

I am sure that reading through that thread in itself will leave you more informed than the paper published today !

 

Am not for moderating heavily so would love it if you could continue over there.

 

Thanks,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69584-scottish-politics-2011-2016/

 

Would an economic dust bowl following an Independence winter be an appropriate weather related comment Lorenzo, cough, cough, blush!

[lorenzo]

Another cold control run on the GEFS Ensemble, seems to be very reliable for the colder solutions so far this season. Still, nice to look at some very cold 850hPa temps here..

 

 

 

[Highland Snow]

Another cold control run on the GEFS Ensemble, seems to be very reliable for the colder solutions so far this season. Still, nice to look at some very cold 850hPa temps here..

 

gens-0-0-240.png

Yes please!

[lorenzo]

Would an economic dust bowl following an Independence winter be an appropriate weather related comment Lorenzo, cough, cough, blush!

 

Let me know if I have got this one wrong, certainly don't want to annoy the regulars, nor lose the banter on the thread. Just thought that SS thread may be better for more in depth discussion. Happy to be corrected, anyone else got any thoughts / ideas / suggestions..?

[Highland Snow]

Scrub my earlier report for today's Maximum of 7.8C as  it is now 8.7C (+1.4C/hour) and I have had to re-expand my Temperatre Graph y-axis up to 10C!

[Highland Snow]

Let me know if I have got this one wrong, certainly don't want to annoy the regulars, nor lose the banter on the thread. Just thought that SS thread may be better for more in depth discussion. Happy to be corrected, anyone else got any thoughts / ideas / suggestions..?

 

Quite correct Lorenzo, I just have a very twisted nature when the Models and current weather aren't delivering!

[Highland Snow]

I have been in the JFK - fifty years on Serious Discussion Thread all day and I am having my eyes opened on a subject I thought I knew well. I have a whole new area of study just opened up for me. I definitely will have to retire early.

[Buriedundersnow]

see when it comes to the strat I wonder if I am even thinking of it right i'll try and explain how I see it a little.

 

i'm using a crazy person as the trop and a sensible hat as the strat and a punch as wave activity.

 

the way I'm thinking of it is coming into autumn the trop is a crazy person who had just put on there sensible hat and the sensible hat works from top to bottom working the sensibleness down its hat trying to reach your head to take the craziness away but before the hat can take full affect if you were to receive a punch which crazys up your head more and in turn knocks the bottom part of the sensible hat out of kilter which the top of the hat has to try and overcome and sort out but if before the hat can get itself sorted out your always open to more craziness from further punches preventing the hat from connecting the sensibleness with your head and this continues till the hat takes over which eventually it will and the only way to get rid of the sensibleness all together is by burning the hat (SSW) but till the hat takes over fully and we have the need for burning it (SSW) we are open to seeing the craziness spill over to our part of the head due to the punches being felt and not just shrugged off.

 

hope that makes sense

 

The strat has got his hat on.. hip hip hip hooray...  I get some of this Buried, the punches being Wave 1 and Wave 2 Activity on the vortex. As Catch said, a real classic !

 

 

I think I may have put it a little wrong as there wouldn't be any punches coming from outside as there isn't really anything coming from outside it would be more like the crazy person putting the hat on then thinking 'no no no what have I done I enjoy the crazy' then tries to derail the hats influence on him.

 

be more like punching himself in the face lol.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just thought that SS thread...

 

 

That makes it sound rather ominous mein oberfuhrer. El Presidente Salmondo will not be pleased.  

 

Lots of good contributions from others on the SP thread. Informative for those across the UK too I'd hope. Certainly, whether on NW or not, people should be making themselves as informed as possible over the coming months. Listen to all sides carefully, do your own research, talk with friends, family colleagues etc. History is being made and people should play their part in the most informed way possible.

 

I'd agree that it's best keep such discussions in the SP thread though.

 

Politics and weather huh - how did I ever find a girlfriend / wife...

 

Now back to weather charts...

Edited November 26, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

If only....All good things..

 

SNOWMEN.jpg

 

EC32 going for HP again.

 

where did the EC32 have the high pressure LORENZO as the 12z op run from the ECM has dropped more hints we could see something

 

 

its obvious the block is an American one but if we could even see it extend a little our direction we could possibly be onto something a bit colder.

[lorenzo]

Not seen it Buried, was just going by information Matt had placed on Twitter, ECM32 is 'under the counter' weather chartage.

 

That last post is a belter, a man with a hat punching himself in the face. Genius.

 

 

I am Jacks raging vortex.

 

 

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Not seen it Buried, was just going by information Matt had placed on Twitter, ECM32 is 'under the counter' weather chartage.

 

That last post is a belter, a man with a hat punching himself in the face. Genius.

 

3934yu85yu4.gif

 

I am Jacks raging vortex.

 

class pic

 

    

 

I will try and find another way to put it that's just all I could think of at the time.

 

EDIT: one small question about the strat does the wave activity prompt a response in the trop or does what the trop do prompt the wave activity.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Jet Streak]

Hi, working in Edinburgh city centre today , how wrong did the BBC get the forecast today? patchy light drizzle forcasted it rained for most of daylight hrs  not happy got soaked!!

[lorenzo]

Wave 1 and Wave 2 activity from the troposphere impacts the stratosphere. If strong enough / sustained enough, this activity can impact the polar vortex leading to either a Minor Warming or a SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming.  Wave 1 activity generally leads to 'displacement' events where the vortex is shifted off it's home, Wave 2 activity can carve up the vortex and lead to 'split' events.

 

Once the vortex is cooked there is an immediate tropospheric response, followed by a lagged tropospheric response where easterly winds burrow down through the stratosphere. These easterly anomalies bring the cold, however there are never any guarantees on how a displaced or split vortex will play out i.e where the core of the cold will spill to lower latitudes.  Last winter is a strong example of how effective a SSW can be at changing the pattern as we really were stuck in a rut which flipped when the SSW kicked in.

 

 

This is why we look at what the wave activity is doing on the Stratosphere monitoring thread.

 

 

[lorenzo]

Just spotted this gallery image on the homepage. 

 

It is from an article written by John Hammond on the bbc pages. Well written article on how complex medium - Long range forecasting actually is.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25108639

[BleakMidwinter]

would like to say apologies to all 

Can't say I see anything needing even a raised eyebrow in your direction, let alone demanding any apologies from you. But just wanted to say - big of you to apologise so nicely just in case folk were bothered. Nice of you. 

[Buriedundersnow]

Can't say I see anything needing even a raised eyebrow in your direction, let alone demanding any apologies from you. But just wanted to say - big of you to apologise so nicely just in case folk were bothered. Nice of you. 

 

thanks BMW.

 

18z looking interesting tonight might get a proper PUB RUN FI for a change then again it might just go GFS zonal.

[Northernlights]

10.7c as I type and blowing a gale, strange tonight should be the warmest part of the day..Should also start to dry up the surface water from this mornings heavy rain . Plough was however still turning up very dry ground today so if we don"t get sufficient rain over the winter drought may be a problem next spring.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

To tease.

 

 

 

Either way, at least things are heading in a more favourable direction...

 

Edited November 27, 2013 by scottish skier