scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[mistyqueen]

Morning folks! Well, we reached the dizzying heights of 11.5c yesterday and today looks as if it'll turn out much the same. It's 9.7c already and extremely murky. YUK!

To tease.

 

 

Oh my stars!   If only....

[lorenzo]

ECM looking great this morning, whilst this is at day 9 it has done well so far this season, had dialled into the last Northerly Blast from a similar range.  This looks a little more complicated as a deeper and much colder low filters in.

 

Beats watching a mid latitude high !

 

Mon' the Snaw !!

 

[mistyqueen]

ECM looking great this morning, whilst this is at day 9 it has done well so far this season, had dialled into the last Northerly Blast from a similar range.  This looks a little more complicated as a deeper and much colder low filters in.

 

Beats watching a mid latitude high !

 

Mon' the Snaw !!

 

ECM0-216.gifECM1-216.gifECM4-216.gif

Oh, now I am positively drooling! ( Not a pretty sight BTW! )

Edited November 27, 2013 by mistyqueen

[Ravelin]

Shocking morning here, well shocking in that at 9am it was already 10-11C. Other than that it's dry with broken white clouds and a relatively gentle breeze.

 

I must say though that when I was driving to work this morning the cloudscape was quite impressive. A broken layer of high cloud that was all shades of blue/grey with white/pink edges, augmented by patches of blue sky and scattered lower level clouds that were fluffy and bright white. A real pity I couldn't get a picture.

 

Like that the potential for next week is still showing on the models. There I go again, potential... potential... potential... I like that word, has a nice ring to it in my head, can only really be beaten by the word snowmageddon. ;>)

[November13]

I'll not mention Royal Bank of Scotland then!

Aye and 90% of the assets and liabilities of said bank being in England! Could have been called the Bank Of Calcutta. It wasn't a Scottish bank in anything but corporate trading name! They had to save it to save London not Scotland. Do keep up!

[November13]

I can't quote posts for some reason...

 

N13, can we keep the politics and economics to the relevant thread, otherwise it's going to turn ugly very quickly. I agree 100% with your post but there's a time and a place for this discussion. I'm not having a go at you, I just enjoy my weather banter too much to let it be spoilt by anything else

Agreed ...he started it LOL..I usually post on SP thread..

[Ravelin]

Aye and 90% of the assets and liabilities snow and ice of said bank cold snap being in England! Could have been called the Bank Of Calcutta Himalayan Snowstorm. It wasn't a Scottish bank cold snap in anything but corporate trading meteorological name! They had to save it plough to save London not Scotland. Do keep up!

 

There you go, fixed that for Catch's benefit.

 

[russell k]

There you go, fixed that for Catch's benefit.

More importantly have you seen Ian f's twitter;

"Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain.

 

looks like met are more confident now of a more prolonged cold-spell,for most of the country"

[November13]

More importantly have you seen Ian f's twitter;"Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain. looks like met are more confident now of a more prolonged cold-spell,for most of the country"

Yes I looked at the charts for next week and was fairly astonished. Looks like a cold one on Friday..Coolish until next Thursday and then into the freezer!

[Ravelin]

More importantly have you seen Ian f's twitter;

"Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain.

 

looks like met are more confident now of a more prolonged cold-spell,for most of the country"

 

Re: the bit in bold....helmets on as they cue up the toys in the model thread if that turns out to be true! Not that many in the south should be expecting much of wintry note this early on....but of course they do.

[Buriedundersnow]

More importantly have you seen Ian f's twitter;

"Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain.

 

looks like met are more confident now of a more prolonged cold-spell,for most of the country"

 

^^^^this I really like

 

nice ECM this morning as has been pointed out by everyone which is good as we are still seeing very small steps to something colder and after seeing this post about IAN F saying the colder spell may last longer is always a good sign.

 

just now it looks like we might get our decent 2-4 day cold spell with some snow about for many and hopefully all but as we know that all depends on wind direction but at this time of the year theres always more of a chance of a nationwide snow event due to more convective energy and the SST's being higher.

 

the next 3 or 4 days will tell a lot we certainly have a cold snap coming and it will be all about model watching to see if we can have this extended as IAN F hinted at.

[Buriedundersnow]

just something I wanted to point out with regards to what IAN F tweeted with regards to we might see the cold spell extended I have taken the ECM and GEM 240hr I didn't put in the GFS as it doesn't want to follow these 2 but that doesn't mean it wont be right just couldn't see any way of extending the cold from it so only used these 2.

 

in both the ECM and the GEM the high to our southwest is sinking in both and shouldn't be any problems and as you can see with the arrows I have put would like to see the low in the atlantic on both come through and hopefully far enough south to keep the cold air over us then there could be a small window where we could maybe see some ridging in the atlantic.

 

looks better on the ECM but is a possible option with both runs the GEM would like to see more like the ECM with the lows separate and not the two lows like on GEM.

 

 

now this is just an option I see based on the 240hr charts I might be wrong in reading it and this will probably change in the next run but with what IAN F posted it was just something I noticed on the models and thought I would post it.

 

as always its still caution to the wind as models change and the GFS could have the right option but still something to watch for as ECM is looking good and the GEM isn't far behind.

 

it was just with the bit about influence to the south very uncertain then that would say to me southward displaced low but I may be wrong on that.

 

like I say just what I see maybe others will see it different.

 

[Buriedundersnow]

some nice snowy looking charts showing on the GFS runs this morning

 

 

favourite is this from the 0z

 

     

Edited November 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Those look great! Is the scale in the pictures in centimetres?? 

[jon_d1983]

some nice snowy looking charts showing on the GFS runs this morning

 

gfs-2-186.pnggfs-2-192.pnggfs-2-204.pnggfs-2-216.pnggfs-2-264.png

 

favourite is this from the 0z

 

 

Sorry to sound daft but do the hatched lines mean snow or something else?

[Ravelin]

At the risk of being wrong....the hatched lines mean snow and the scale is in mm. That's mm of precipitation though, but 1mm of rain usually means around 1cm (10mm) of snow depending on the exact conditions.

 

Of course it's highly likely those charts are going to change as they are so far out, but nice to see all the same.

Edited November 27, 2013 by Ravelin

[Buriedundersnow]

Those look great! Is the scale in the pictures in centimetres?? 

 

the scale is for mm of rain but seen as the usual scale for snow is 10:1 yes it can be read as centimetres but remember this is only a forecast of what might fall in that time period which at that far out would be a 12hr timescale as the charts are for every 12 hours

 

 

Sorry to sound daft but do the hatched lines mean snow or something else?

 

the lines simply mean potential for wintry precipitation sleet/snow from what data the model is putting out if the charts were to verify then LS will tell us closer to the timeframe exactly what we are likely to see where

 

EDIT: didn't notice RAVELIN had already replied.

 

note for future I should read posts properly would save some time and energy posting  

Edited November 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[russell k]

Re: the bit in bold....helmets on as they cue up the toys in the model thread if that turns out to be true! Not that many in the south should be expecting much of wintry note this early on....but of course they do.

Firstly I must admit I'm English (been here 23 years), however it does make me laugh when people in Crewe or even worse Stafford think they live in the Northern half of the UK even Mcr my home town not there, anyway lets hope for a better ECM after a poorer 12z gfs

[Buriedundersnow]

heres a couple of charts I pulled from a post I done a few days ago ignore the paint it doesn't matter to this post.

 

here was the ECM and GFS 5 days out

 

 

now heres the 12z ECM for 24hrs sorry don't have GFS trying not to burn the dinner

 

 

how crap was the GFS at just 5 days out didn't get a handle on this at all and shows how rubbish a model it has become and of course we cant rule out its output but just wanted to show this

 

EDIT: have swapped out those carts should be better now

Edited November 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 12z not what we were all hoping for will need to wait for ensembles later to see where it stands and tomorrow mornings run to see if this could be a change or just a bump in the road.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Firstly I must admit I'm English (been here 23 years), however it does make me laugh when people in Crewe or even worse Stafford think they live in the Northern half of the UK....

 

Sorry mate, but you're Scottish now. It's not the 23 years 'time' you've done, but instead the second bit of your comment; provides clear evidence that you've gone native....

 

  

[Highland Snow]

Minimum last night was +5.9C at 06.03. Maximum today 13.0C at 12.56. Currently 8.8C (-0.4C/hr).

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM. Decent stuff still getting pushed a little back.

 

 

 

 

Meantime, more chillier/cooler zonal.

 

Edited November 27, 2013 by scottish skier

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM 12z not what we were all hoping for will need to wait for ensembles later to see where it stands and tomorrow mornings run to see if this could be a change or just a bump in the road.

 

Aye. However we're not even out of November yet.

 

Would be nice to see some white stuff before / on my b-day.

Edited November 27, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

Aye. However we're not even out of November yet.

 

Would be nice to see some white stuff before / on my b-day.

 

just saw BOBBYDOG post in the model thread that the pattern we are in just now looks similar to 62/63 from what he can see looking through charts think that's just hopeful though but like they say with weather you can never tell and another of them this year would go down a treat