scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Ravelin]

So the weather today is......uninteresting. 7C at 9am, sheet of white cloud and just a gentle breeze. Tomorrow is not likely bring snow other than on the mountains but at least with a strong NW wind and showers it's going to be a bit less boring. Not that blustery showers of cold rain really gets me excited.

 

As for the models for the end of next week....still looks promising for at least a day or two of cold but too far away to get excited. I worry for the sanity of Frosty though. If it does come off he's going to explode with excitement, if it doesn't he'll be on suicide watch. It's only the start of December too. My one prediction is that Frosty will never make it through the winter unscathed.

[theskyatnight]

not sure if anyone can help me.Hopefully some of you scottish folk may be able to. Im looking at going to somehwere in the highlands for a couple fo nights around new years.Obviously there is Aviemore,all im looking for is somewhere chilled out relaxing,nice couple of pubs in or around there with the chance of some snow.Having never visited the highlands before i was hoping to get some info on possible places around there that are nice villages with a few decent boozers/pubs for me and the lady on NYE. Any help would be appreciated and i know its off topic but wasnt sure where to put it??? I was hoping for some snow but not sure where i would stand on that front obviously!

[Ravelin]

Obviously snow is going to be hit & miss even in the Highlands. Sure others will pitch in their recommendations too but here goes....

 

Aviemore - Plenty of accommodation, but although I love the surrounding area I'm personally not that enamored with the town itself. Plenty of drinking places though and if you don't have the snow at low level at least you can take a trip up to the ski centre for your snow fix. Also probably the best of my list for shops, cafes etc.

 

Carrbridge or Grantown-On-Spey - Both just to the north of Aviemore and have a bit more of a traditional feel. That does mean a bit quieter, especially Carrbridge, and not as many facilities. Not even sure if there's a 'pub' in Carrbridge but I'm sure the hotels will be licensed.

 

Braemar or Ballater - As likely to see snow here as Aviemore, especially in Braemar, but if not it's a short drive to Glenshee ski area for that 'fix'. Again, both of these have a more traditional feel than Aviemore but are quieter. Ballater I'm sure has a pub or two in addition to hotel bars, but I think Braemar will just be hotel bars.

 

Of course there's always the west coast (Oban, Ft.William, Ullapool) or NE of Inverness (Strathpeffer, Dornoch) but it depends on exactly what you're looking for.

[mardatha]

For me it would have to be the west coast - far nicer. Anywhere from Glencoe up. I wish I could go up there for New Year

[theskyatnight]

Ravelin,

 

many thanks for the response. I guess we are just looking for somewhere that has a 2-3 decent pubs a kind of cosy feel to it. Ive never visited the highlands and i just think it would be somewhere really nice and cosy to go and get away from the usual hustle and bustle of new years.im not saying i want it to be deathly quiet,just somewhere i guess with a nice feel to it and a relaxed atmosphere.

 

Thanks for your response i will look into it in more detail after work

[mardatha]

Oban?? Google and see what you think of it.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

not sure if anyone can help me.Hopefully some of you scottish folk may be able to. Im looking at going to somehwere in the highlands for a couple fo nights around new years.Obviously there is Aviemore,all im looking for is somewhere chilled out relaxing,nice couple of pubs in or around there with the chance of some snow.Having never visited the highlands before i was hoping to get some info on possible places around there that are nice villages with a few decent boozers/pubs for me and the lady on NYE. Any help would be appreciated and i know its off topic but wasnt sure where to put it??? I was hoping for some snow but not sure where i would stand on that front obviously!

 

Can heartily recommend here (7 miles or so north of Aviemore):

 

http://www.carrbridge.com/

 

And local pub / hotel.

 

http://www.cairnhotel.co.uk/

 

 

(my home village which I was back visiting just the other weekend)

 

EDIT. Yes Ravelin it has a pub and a very good one too. Christmas / NY is great. Think lock-in's and céilidh's into the wee small hours.

 

-------------

 

As for the weather. Was surprised to find an ice rim on the car this morning. Not frost, but frozen rain. Was half melted by the time I was leaving so thankfully not too hard to scrape.

Edited November 28, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

We're six days away from a potential (albeit a bit speculative given the models differ on this) snowy spell, as cold uppers push in from the west:

With the 6Z we'd then have a secondary low forming which introduces a warm sector but on the plus side tees us up for a proper Arctic blast:

ECM does similar:

Some seriously cold air in that, and if it came off the potential for Polar low formation would be greater than it's been in a long time:

 

Once that kind of cold becomes embedded it becomes difficult to shift, certainly at the surface level, and given that the coming relatively mild week isn't exactly warm:

we're likely to continue a run of cold starts to December which goes back to 2009, when of course by late December no one remembered the first bit anyway.
SM was mentioning counting the number of sub 10C runs on the ensemble suite, and I make it eight for Midlothian (nine if we include the op):

More like 10 or 11 for Aberdeenshire (i.e. half the runs)

And more like 14 for Shetland:

 

The other thing to look out for is the possible sting in the tail east/northeasterly which could follow as mid latitude heights ridge northwards behind the trough. The Pressure ensembles for Oslo are instructive and show very clearly the Scandi trough setup followed by possible Scandi height rises:

A 60mb pressure rise in 48 hours with the op!

[Buriedundersnow]

Don't bank on the high being far enough west or south for the cold air to reach us in the first place BUS. We've now had two attempts (one last week and one tomorrow) at a NWly or Nly and in both attempts the whole lot has been shunted east as we've got closer to 00h. I appreciate that the next attempt is giving it a little bit more lalldy but it's not going to take much to shunt the whole lot east. GFS having none of it but the ECM starts flopping the high quite quickly over the UK. All very nice if you want cold, but I'd rather have snow and 0ºC than dry and -10ºC

 

i agree with you i would rather have snow than the deep cold preferably both at once but that's pretty much not going to happen yet.

 

wish these models would get thereselves sorted out its like they are running a relay race for cold the now first the ECM goes on the first lap and looks best option for us then its handed the baton to the GFS which now looks best apart from the 6z which took a step back but it isn't highly talked of so will wait for the 12z just wonder if when the GFS has finished his lap if he will pass the baton back to the ECM or if they will both crumple in a heap or will both run holding the baton and do the final lap together.

 

will have to wait and see but knowing our luck and like you say it will all get shunted.

 

its all a case again like a few days ago of seeing which model has the pattern over America correct with the ECM wanting to develop lows more than the GFS (who would have thought we would be saying that usually its the other way around) as its that which looks likely to shunt the high.

 

still though with the way i am (i'll chase the cold forever if needed) i'm still going to be looking for signs of something better coming along even though its probably a lost cause

[Buriedundersnow]

would like to correct what i said in my last post about the GFS 6z looking worse than the 0z as this is only true for the op runs the 6z looks slightly better in the GEFS mean than the 0z in the medium term

 

[Buriedundersnow]

incase anyone hasn't seen this its an interesting post by OLDMETMAN in the model thread he thinks we have some interest coming with concern to blocking but could still go either way

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78508-model-output-discussion-18th-nov2013-12z-onwards/?p=2847701

Edited November 28, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

GEFS 12z mean still going for the northerly so looks like the op is way off

 

 

EDIT: also the GEFS mean in the medium term around the northerly time has taken another slight dip down which is promising

 

Edited November 28, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Highland Snow]

For anyone interested in a simple weather station (Edodfc) check out Lidl available from Monday 2nd:

 

http://www.lidl.co.uk/cps/rde/SID-9BCE2049-39BDA8B5/www_lidl_uk/hs.xsl/our-offers-2491.htm?action=showDetail&id=7804

 

[Buriedundersnow]

little help from one of the more knowledgeable i noticed this on twitter and i am sure i have read somewhere that tropical development in the mid Atlantic can help promote high pressure to ridge in the northern Atlantic (i may be wrong) hence why i am asking

 

Weather Underground â€@wunderground 35m

Watching area near 24.8N 38.9W for tropical development [invest 90L]: winds 35 mph moving NNW at 4 mph

 

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/Invest-90L?map=model

[Cheggers]

not sure if anyone can help me.Hopefully some of you scottish folk may be able to. Im looking at going to somehwere in the highlands for a couple fo nights around new years.Obviously there is Aviemore,all im looking for is somewhere chilled out relaxing,nice couple of pubs in or around there with the chance of some snow.Having never visited the highlands before i was hoping to get some info on possible places around there that are nice villages with a few decent boozers/pubs for me and the lady on NYE. Any help would be appreciated and i know its off topic but wasnt sure where to put it??? I was hoping for some snow but not sure where i would stand on that front obviously!

I can recommend here, http://www.whistlefieldinn.co.uk/ not quite the HIghlands but nice drive up the West coast for Nevis range and the Great Glen, and accomadation and pub in one. The views are stunning, and listening to the Deer at night is just majestic.

My new view....

Frost set in by 7pm tonight.

[Buriedundersnow]

quite clearly there is still a fair bit to be worked out by the models with concerns to the northerly.

 

both the ECM and GEFS mean have the northerly present but on different days with the ECM mean having it on the 6th and the GEFS mean having it on the 7th

 

ECM

 

 

GEFS

 

[Hawesy]

Another lovely day in NE Fife. November is probably my least favourite month of the year, meteorlogically speaking, but this year it's been great.

 

Just 21mm of rain and 107 hours of sunshine so far (Leuchars figures). More please!

 

High today was 6c.

[Cheggers]

Telescopes away for now...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25143861

[edo]

i would agree with sentiments re Aviemore I find it does not really give the feel you are looking for and is a bit tired..... I agree with SS and would say carrbridge although cheggers option looks very decent.....wherever you chose you will enjoy it but you may find many nice places already booked as I think quite alot of people venture away now at new year.

 

HS many thanks that weather station will do the perfect job for now...I shall be there before work Monday morning  happy xmas to me 

[Highland Snow]

HS many thanks that weather station will do the perfect job for now...I shall be there before work Monday morning  happy xmas to me 

 

Looking forward to temperature/dew points from Luncarty EDO.

[edo]

Looking forward to temperature/dew points from Luncarty EDO.

 absolutely Its been a long time coming... I am intrigued to establish the differences from your readings such a short distance away 

[Highland Snow]

Not looking good for "the comet of the century":

COMET ISON--UPDATE: New images from SOHO show something emerging from behind the sun. It could be a small fragment of Comet ISON's nucleus or perhaps a "headless comet"--a stream of debris marking the remains of the comet's disintegrated core. Watch the movie and stay tuned for updates.

[Buriedundersnow]

Not looking good for "the comet of the century":

COMET ISON--UPDATE: New images from SOHO show something emerging from behind the sun. It could be a small fragment of Comet ISON's nucleus or perhaps a "headless comet"--a stream of debris marking the remains of the comet's disintegrated core. Watch the movie and stay tuned for updates.

 

i think theres still something there as toward the end of the video you can see the tail start to appear again

[LomondSnowstorm]

The models are a little divergent after about +144hrs. Latest GFS 18z has the potential for many hours of snow over some parts of Scotland a week tomorrow. This can still go any which way

To be honest Catch I like our chances on this one. Even more runs go sub -10C with the uppers on the 18Z than on the previous run, with 11 sub -10C runs for Midlothian now whereas it was more like 8 on the 6Z:

The 12Z  GFS op showed how it could all go staggeringly wrong if we didn't get energy separation (particularly when 95% of the UK's oil is in Scottish waters {sorry Lorenzo}) over Greenland, but given it was perhaps the only run of the last 3 days to put high pressure over northern Scotland by the 6th/7th December I'm not all that worried about it. Ultimately I'm happy enough just to be in with a shout at this early stage, a mix of cool/cold anticyclonic and cold wintry north/northwesterlies is an excellent way to start winter.

[blitzen]

Morning. Couldn't sleep so had a gander at the 00z GFS.   Next weekend's cold snap does appear to have returned on the overnight run.  Commencing Thursday lunch - to Saturday lunch by the looks of things.  Going by my eye, it looks as if we could be under -10 uppers from around 9pm Thursday for the duration, within a NW flow. We also appear, at the moment anyway, to have a considerable chance of some snowfall too.(especially those in N/NW/border areas)  Thursday looks to be our best chance, as afterwards it looks to wishbone.  I suppose there must be some upstream differences this morning but they are just too complicated for me to understand, so I will  post the 850s and let some of the other more informed folks decipher:  These charts take us up to the T204 mark, after which it all looks pretty uninteresting.  I suppose that is far enough in the future to change though.  Nowt much in this run for those south of the border, so don't expect to see any enthusiasm in the MOD!

 

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Blitzen