scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Big Innes Madori]

just saw BOBBYDOG post in the model thread that the pattern we are in just now looks similar to 62/63 from what he can see looking through charts think that's just hopeful though but like they say with weather you can never tell and another of them this year would go down a treat

Aye BUS, it wiz a rerr wee post fae Boabbydug in the MT! 

 

But ye also get this stuff fae Broony!

"I would think any northerly next week will be the last such cold shot for some time"  

 

Ahh the good old MT eh  

 

 

Big Innes

[Buriedundersnow]

I think it's probably wishful thinking as you say BUS, although having said that who really knows? You can have all the forecasting tools and go into great detail about background this, that and the next but no-one actually knows what's going to happen down the line. If they did know we wouldn't weather watch as the weather would be entirely predictable six months in advance. I've been led down the path of believing that snowmageddon was round the corner only for it all to fail to know anything's possible in a "oh dear it's not going to snow" sense; but the same has to apply in reverse too. By simply living through enough winters we'll see plenty of snow surprises too

 

 

yeah nothing in weather can be ruled out.

 

I've been wondering about 62/63 its says on the berlin strat site that there was a Canadian warming in November but don't know if to believe that or not and would like to see more data as it says on that site that December 2010 had a cold monthly mean but then LS showed me that the strat was warmer than normal in December 2010 so don't know if to believe about a Canadian warming that year or not as the site LS gave me to look at only goes back to 79/80.

 

maybe LS or LORENZO could help me out on that one.

 

EDIT: sorry I think I should have said November 2010 there.

Edited November 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[edo]

stained glass window it I'm going in....not expecting much rational debate but gonna see what the MT has to offer.... My 3 yr old is now literally throwing tantrums every morning there is no snow.....not because of me I hasten to add but because stained glass windowin doc mcstuffin has been doing snow angels on the Disney channel....I really need snow more for her now than myself...she's in for a rude awakening if we go back to some snowless winters

[Highland Snow]

telephone box it I'm going in....not expecting much rational debate but gonna see what the MT has to offer.... My 3 yr old is now literally throwing tantrums every morning there is no snow.....not because of me I hasten to add but because telephone boxin doc mcstuffin has been doing snow angels on the Disney channel....I really need snow more for her now than myself...she's in for a rude awakening if we go back to some snowless winters

 

Oh dear denial is setting in - a very bad sign indeed.

[Buriedundersnow]

thought I would add this in for people who believe the sun has an influence incase they haven't been looking it looks like solar max could be over and we are practically spotless apart from a couple of tiny features

 

Daily Sun: 27 Nov 13

None of the spots on the Earthside of the sun pose a threat for flares. Solar activity is low. Credit: SDO/HMI
 

Sunspot number: 47  
 

[be cause]

telephone box it I'm going in....not expecting much rational debate but gonna see what the MT has to offer.... My 3 yr old is now literally throwing tantrums every morning there is no snow.....not because of me I hasten to add but because telephone boxin doc mcstuffin has been doing snow angels on the Disney channel....I really need snow more for her now than myself...she's in for a rude awakening if we go back to some snowless winters

I tell 3 year olds that they're the magic in the mix . They must  wish the snow into being ...great mental practice for a wee'un and great results when the snow does fall !

[Buriedundersnow]

All we need is someone to paint in Homer's face in the middle of the high:

 

27th Nov ECM 12z +240hrs.gif

 

Having said that by that stage with the uppers forecast it would a little chilly, especially if it snows before the high floats back east.

 

I would give it a go but don't think my painting is that good yet lol.

 

yeah we might see some inversion keeping the cold at the surface.

[Highland Snow]

telephone box it I'm going in....not expecting much rational debate but gonna see what the MT has to offer.... My 3 yr old is now literally throwing tantrums every morning there is no snow.....not because of me I hasten to add but because telephone boxin doc mcstuffin has been doing snow angels on the Disney channel....I really need snow more for her now than myself...she's in for a rude awakening if we go back to some snowless winters

 

 

Oh dear denial is setting in - a very bad sign indeed.

 

And might I add EDO when you are bringing her Ritalin script along to Boots don't tell me that your friendly Kilted Thread Pharmacist hasn't warned you over several winters ...

[edo]

Lol HS you could be right re denial in a months time but I am chilled with no snow yet...I would trade 3weeks of snow now for one week over the festive period... Thankfully not had to venture into boots recently for any prescriptions....scared I might see some crazy pharmacist scaring the customers....

Lovin the magic theory be cause .... I think I will use that one

The MT is highly confusing this evening...on balance given the charts and given meto updates and fergie tweets I would hope that we may be looking at a more favourable set up coming....certainly decent little cold snap brewing even if the snowporn charts BUD posted earlier don't materialise

[Northernlights]

A fine autumn day here fresh west wind,overcast,  with a high of 10c. Spreading dung today young Mr. Northernlights loading with a 90 horsepower tractor filling a 12 tonne spreader with an approximately 250 horsepower tractor .An old father time comment coming now ,I can remember  dung spreading taking 2 weeks 20 years ago with smaller tractors and spreaders(2 tonnes capacity).Today it can be done in 1.5days and actually costs less to do because of the speed it is done at. Another 1.5 days and it should be ploughed in and safe for the winter. Cooler this evening after a shower of rain at 5c

 

 Note dust coming off spreader a reminderof the hot dry summer when even the whole dung heap of250tonnes completely dried out and any recent rain has hardly penetrated it.

Edited November 27, 2013 by Northernlights

[Buriedundersnow]

The 850s are -10ºC at that point BUS, with snow cover that'd be cold. After 240hrs on the ECM the high looks like sinking SE though, so maybe only very cold for a couple of days?

 

 

oooooooooooooooooooooooopppppppppppsssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!

Lol HS you could be right re denial in a months time but I am chilled with no snow yet...I would trade 3weeks of snow now for one week over the festive period... Thankfully not had to venture into boots recently for any prescriptions....scared I might see some crazy pharmacist scaring the customers....

Lovin the magic theory be cause .... I think I will use that one

The MT is highly confusing this evening...on balance given the charts and given meto updates and fergie tweets I would hope that we may be looking at a more favourable set up coming....certainly decent little cold snap brewing even if the snowporn charts BUD posted earlier don't materialise

 

didn't know I had changed my name lol

[Benvironment]

An old father time comment coming now ,I can remember  dung spreading taking 2 weeks 20 years ago with smaller tractors and spreaders(2 tonnes capacity).Today it can be done in 1.5days and actually costs less to do because of the speed it is done at.

 

Someone in Perthshire was telling me last year how the smaller tractors of old did less damage to the soil as they were lighter, didn't compress the soil so much and therefore reduced surface run-off.  Sounds plausible but I've no idea if it's an experience replicated elsewhere.  Do you reckon there's any truth in it?

[Northernlights]

Someone in Perthshire was telling me last year how the smaller tractors of old did less damage to the soil as they were lighter, didn't compress the soil so much and therefore reduced surface run-off.  Sounds plausible but I've no idea if it's an experience replicated elsewhere.  Do you reckon there's any truth in it?

  Yes  2 summers ago a lot of  damage  was done by high horsepower tractor even on wide tyres to spread the load as the shear power they possesed enabled them to progress through very wet ground. I will stop operations if I think soil to wet to protect it from smearing and compacting This autumn has been wonderful as soil still not very wet. Going back further horses did even less damage than small tractors.!!!!!!. Modern farming is not kind to the soil if done when it is too wet and there are less and less people involved who understand this and more accountant type managers who push on regardless of conditions.For my daughters higher geography 10 years ago i was able to show her gully erosion in neighbouring fields after late autumn potato harvesting  and take photos as evidence.

[Benvironment]

  Yes  2 summers ago a lot of  damage  was done by high horsepower tractor even on wide tyres to spread the load as the shear power they possesed enabled them to progress through very wet ground. I will stop operations if I think soil to wet to protect it from smearing and compacting This autumn has been wonderful as soil still not very wet. Going back further horses did even less damage than small tractors.!!!!!!. Modern farming is not kind to the soil if done when it is too wet and there are less and less people involved who understand this and more accountant type managers who push on regardless of conditions.For my daughters higher geography 10 years ago i was able to show her gully erosion in neighbouring fields after late autumn potato harvesting  and take photos as evidence.

 

Thanks for that.  Interesting stuff.

[edo]

BUS u know yer a BUD to all on the board.....to be fair in current weather you could be buriedunderdreich

[Buriedundersnow]

BUS: Can you copy and paste these pics ok, if so I will upload more for your vids. If not, then I will need to e-mail them to you as requested

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1439-january-2013/

 

 

yeah I got them what was your location then though as u have moved lately?

 

forgot all about that with this cold spell coming up lol.

BUS u know yer a BUD to all on the board.....to be fair in current weather you could be buriedunderdreich

 

thought u maybe had a beer in your hand and got mixed up

[Buriedundersnow]

*REMINDER*

 

right I will start taking pics to see if I can get a winter video made

 

I will start with last year as this will allow people time to dig out pics of previous years so only looking for pics from last winter/spring 12/13 no others as things can get very confusing very quickly.

 

BuriedUnderSnow@hotmail.co.uk

 

should you have any pics plz send them to this address with

 

USERNAME USED ON THIS SITE

 

LOCATION (not your street or anything like that just town will be fine)

 

DATE OF WHEN EACH PICTURE WAS TAKEN

 

if you do decide to send me in pictures to add into the video I will

 

NEVER FORWARD YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS FROM THIS ACCOUNT OR SAVE IT

 

ONLY EVER SEND A RESPONSE IF THERE IS A QUERY ABOUT A PICTURE

 

DELETE THE E-MAIL YOU SEND AS SOON AS I HAVE FINISHED MODIFYING IT FOR THE VIDEO AND ARE HAPPY I DONT NEED IT ANYMORE

 

many thanks BUS

 

P.S. for anyone seeing this for the first time I am doing like a winter walk through video of the winter 12/13 all I will be doing with your pics is putting your screen name your location and the date the pic was taken captioned in the pics and putting them in the video for future use in the forum so if you would like your snow pics in the video then please send them in.

[LomondSnowstorm]

yeah nothing in weather can be ruled out.

 

I've been wondering about 62/63 its says on the berlin strat site that there was a Canadian warming in November but don't know if to believe that or not and would like to see more data as it says on that site that December 2010 had a cold monthly mean but then LS showed me that the strat was warmer than normal in December 2010 so don't know if to believe about a Canadian warming that year or not as the site LS gave me to look at only goes back to 79/80.

 

maybe LS or LORENZO could help me out on that one.

 

EDIT: sorry I think I should have said November 2010 there.

 

Yeah, although it was only the early part of the month that was warm (which is pretty exceptional because there's usually limited variation in stratospheric temperature from late spring through to autumn). After that the strat cooled pretty rapidly without any actual SSWs or CWs and it was that which eventually led to the reformation of the vortex once the massive initial tropospheric forcings ran out.

The Berlin site has the longest dataset but because it's (I believe) only for the North Pole it's not 100% accurate. I think there might be a more comprehensive chart somewhere, certainly I think GP posted a strat chart from 62/63 last winter at some point that might be worth digging out, but given the synoptics I'd be amazed if the strat wasn't warmer than average and if the strat vortex wasn't in a mess at multiple points that winter. 78/79 had a very cold strat early doors before a CW brought it up to around average but if you look at the blocking pattern (the same goes for December '81)

it was more a case of a southerly tracking jet stream with a deep mean trough over Europe, although the blocking pattern was favourable in that the bulk of it was centred over Greenland.

The positive for us is that we do appear to be in a phase, as we were in the late 70s and early 80s, where the jet is prone to being further south than normal and that gives us a big advantage regardless of the strat conditions. Certainly what we've seen so far is pretty positive - Scotland managing to stay very much on the cold side in spite of the blocking setup and the strat being far less than optimal, which is a decent omen for later on in the winter. I personally think it's got something to do with the SSTs, which as even the MO pointed out hint at a negative NAO (Chiono's forecast also goes for a negative NAO, as does mine) in spite of other signals pointing towards a positive Arctic Oscillation.

Anyway, I'm slightly annoyed that our nice exclusive Arctic NWerly might turn out to be a more general Britain-wide northerly outbreak due to increased amplification on the western flank and a shunt eastwards of the pattern:

Still, *if* it verified like this it would be a very impressive one at that:

Certainly some very cold air bottled up in the Arctic at the moment and all the models are at least toying with the idea of throwing it in our direction, even if it is only a brief blast. -12C uppers from any direction would give good snowfall potential with major instability, although last week the whole thing was shortened somewhat by the premature eastwards movement of the high along with a dreaded warm sector.

[Buriedundersnow]

why slightly annoyed is it for the direction for getting something or were u hoping to go in the MT and rub there faces in it if we got snow and they never      

[Buriedundersnow]

I was literally your user name in Jan 2013

 

It was near a place called Westruther, Scottish Borders, the date would be about the 22nd Jan but you should be able to right click the pics to confirm the details. I will upload photos that way as I think e-mails might struggle to cope with too many attachments? I'm not sure when I'll get more uploaded, plus I need to get some transferred off my phone too. Depending on what software you use to make your vids you can add in proper video footage, I have a couple of videos of falling snow and drifting snow too?

 

Looking back my pics and vids are pretty rubbish, if we get reasonable snow this winter I'll try and mind to get some better footage

 

I don't think I will beable to add videos as its a slide show video but I will get the thinking cap on and see if I can think of something to do with videos.

 

if you get anymore pics the same way as u just did would be fine if you don't want to mess around with e-mails

[LomondSnowstorm]

why slightly annoyed is it for the direction for getting something or were u hoping to go in the MT and rub there faces in it if we got snow and they never      

Bit of both  Westerlies are better for snow than northerlies for most of us, but also it would've stopped any TOORPing on the MT because most people wouldn't have known there was anything more than a slight frost coming up (other than Frosty, Frosty would've known). Anyway, either way I'm happy, and of course the beauty is that we'd get back to where we were basically through slight downgrades, so it's really win-win

[Buriedundersnow]

Bit of both  Westerlies are better for snow than northerlies for most of us, but also it would've stopped any TOORPing on the MT because most people wouldn't have known there was anything more than a slight frost coming up (other than Frosty, Frosty would've known). Anyway, either way I'm happy, and of course the beauty is that we'd get back to where we were basically through slight downgrades, so it's really win-win

 

I would be happy with downgrades to see them all going     in the model thread then we can all sneak in  style all  and tell them what we are all getting saying downgrades always happen   

 

just as long as we don't lose the uppers too much as it can marginal here quick.

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 18z 8 day anomalies chart starting to turn colder again and its going to get a whole lot colder than that if the models keep up what they are showing    

 

[lorenzo]

Some wise advice there Catch.

 

ECM chart at 216 on the 00z has the pick of the cold air..

 

 

Still some way to go yet -  good post from Nick F yesterday in the model thread re: the FI period for Northerlies. Question was raised as to whether we can look at FI for Northerlies to be at a longer time frame which I agree with, the models have caught onto these Northerly Blasts well this year, this will be the 3rd when verified.

 

Expect a wee bit of wobbling back and forth on the operational runs yet with respect to the main locale for the blast of cold. East West shifts, GEM whilst a bit like a crazy horse at longer range, did pick up the low at 96 hrs that gave the snow last week, so one to keep note of for the shorter term.

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Here is the 670 page Document on Scottish Independence published this morning "Scotland's Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland":

 

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00439021.pdf

 

As noted in a previous post, it is best to keep this discussion in the serious discussion scottish politics thread.

 

However, as we've had a link to the above, it seems fair that people also see a prospectus for the other side of the argument. We've not had a 'union white paper' and I'd be surprised if that is forthcoming (at least in terms of the same volume of information), but a very important document has emerged from the UK government on what different levels of Y/N support would mean in practical terms for the future. We may see some details emerge in the newspapers; in the meantime here's a heads up (quick summary with link to UK Gov paper with my own - obviously somewhat partisan - opinion  ).

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69584-scottish-politics-2011-2016/?p=2847341

 

To keep on topic... Nice chart:

 

Edited November 28, 2013 by scottish skier