South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>

[Jason T]

sunday

 

a strong westerly wind

 

looks like some very heavy rain am and thundery

 

clearing by lunchtime-early pm

 

temps around 12-14 degrees

 

watch that low directly to our west

 

that is the problem we could have sunday night-monday

 

 

Glad i never fix the fence yet...... Cor that's looking nasty.

 

Night jp, Keep the post's coming mate. Awesome.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Jason T

[Wivenswold]

Do you currently live in Wivenhoe? If so you absolutely have light pollution.

 Not compared with where I've lived before. I can sit out and watch meteor showers at night where I am. My view towards London takes me over the woods and to the South of Colchester. Not much of a glow until you get down to Maldon. 

[john pike]

gfs tonight

 

132

 

138

 

144

 

 

now ukmo at 144

 

not quite the same but fairly close

 

lets hope these change over the next few days

Edited October 22, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

 

[anything-but]

That`d make crossing the Rochester bridge on the M2 a interesting prospect on the motorbike if that came off. :o

Edited October 22, 2013 by anything-but

[john pike]

hi ab

 

long way out and will probably change

 

starting to think a storm of some sort will happen

 

just not sure how potent it might be

 

the fax over the next couple of evenings may help but the action is between 120-144

 

so getting an exact detail will have to be used via ukmo charts which will only be useful from t72

 

expect some confusion over the next few days with this

[Steve C]

Not compared with where I've lived before. I can sit out and watch meteor showers at night where I am. My view towards London takes me over the woods and to the South of Colchester. Not much of a glow until you get down to Maldon.

Obviously I live near you, so know Wivenhoe. Light pollution is insidious and it's not good for us. If you like looking at your night sky ( as I do ) try looking from a rural area away from here and it'll be a revelation. Actually the northern Dengie peninsular is not bad (maybe surprisingly) for us. Hopefully when the street lights are switched off in the next six months, from 11 or midnight till 5 a.m. it will be worth staying up for. I'm looking forward to it.

[Sussex Jules]

Thanks for the updates JP watch this space as they say. Steve our street lights go off at midnight round here good for star watching but a nightmare for late night snow watches!

[Steve C]

hi ab

 

long way out and will probably change

 

starting to think a storm of some sort will happen

 

just not sure how potent it might be

 

the fax over the next couple of evenings may help but the action is between 120-144

 

so getting an exact detail will have to be used via ukmo charts which will only be useful from t72

 

expect some confusion over the next few days with this

I agree with this John. A storm seems very likely. Just where it deepens and how intense it'll be is the issue imho.

[john pike]

hi steve

 

i like extreme weather like all on here

 

not so sure i like the look of this set up and would actually prefer this not to happen

 

cannot change what will be though

 

think a few late nights trying to work these charts out coming up

 

but for now i better go to bed

 

goodnight all

Edited October 22, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

also we could still see some pretty wild weather tonight still

 

probably watch the radar while in bed to annoy the mrs

 

nite all

[Steve C]

Thanks for the updates JP watch this space as they say. Steve our street lights go off at midnight round here good for star watching but a nightmare for late night snow watches!

There's a downside to everything.

 

[Mark Neal.]

Morning all. Light showers here currently. Should clear away soon, brightness pushing in from the SW, Sunshine for all later 

[Mark Neal.]

Teeming it down now, off to work, great!  

[VillagePlank]

starting to think a storm of some sort will happen

 

just not sure how potent it might be

 

 

(Very) windy, but not an epic 1987-esque storm

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/page-19#entry2812299

Edited October 23, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning

Just had a heavy shower here, hopefully there won't be too many today as I head on my travels to Cambridge

[Coast]

An 'interesting' journey in, trying to avoid the vast amounts of tree litter and domestic/garden items in blustery, heavy rain and squalls.

 

What's the latest thoughts on Monday's potential storm then?

[VillagePlank]

What's the latest thoughts on Monday's potential storm then?

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/page-19#entry2812299

[Coast]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/page-19#entry2812299

 

Yep, still looking windy then, but somewhere nearer the time we might see just how windy and where that low will centre. Interesting to follow some patterns up to any event though and it still could be snog, marry, avoid!

Edited October 23, 2013 by Coast

[VillagePlank]

Yep, still looking windy then, but somewhere nearer the time we might see just how windy and where that low will centre. Interesting to follow some patterns up to any event though and it still could be snog, marry, avoid!

 

Probabilistic analysis has persistently shown the low not crossing the UK at all, OK maybe skirting the very north of Scotland, and undergoing it's final flaunt with cyclogenesis to the west of Norway. The only real reason it's of interest is it's persistence with the GFS operational run, and an ensemble member or two flirting with the idea from GEFS. It's certainly going to feel autumnal, that's for sure, but Armageddon style low pressure? At this stage it's very improbable.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Coast]

The only real reason it's of interest is it's persistence with the GFS operational run,

 

 

GFS still wanting to fly that flag (if it were correct, it might be flapping around a bit):

 

 

 

 

[Lauren]

A fee strong gusts last night and rain but no T&L as far as I could tell.

[Heisenberg]

Chucking it down when i left home at 6am, nice and fine in London....

 

Looks like the rain will ease only to pick up again at the weekend....how lovely.

[Coast]

Looks like the rain will ease only to pick up again at the weekend....how lovely.

 

Sunday currently looking like a washout on GFS:

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Spoilt last night really really spoilt!!!

 

2 Thunderstorms passed over, with constant lightning in the distance eased a bit as it approached but some fantastic fork lightning and in cloud!

 

The second produced some distant lightning... and then stopped before a 5 second flash between the clouds and sheet lightning wonderful..

 

Immense amount of rain last night