Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[ITSY]

hopefully a trendsetter!

[bluearmy]

the back end of the 12z run looking isolated when compared with the general trend of the gfs runs.

[aginob]

for recretos

respect for your great ( midel ) sorry ! models posting

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2872515

 

question: the last 4 models ( wave 1 and wave 2 )

i not see year day monts ( is this now ? => december 2013 )

thanks !

Edited December 24, 2013 by aginob

[Recretos]

Thanks aginob, it does takes some time to plot all the stuff. The last 4 (wave) products are basically only meant as an example of a typical wave1/wave2, and not as a forecast.

Btw, the CFSv2 mean is kinda in the same field as the GFS, tho with only one side warming up. But just as the 18z GFS, it retracts the core of the vortex back towards Siberia. 

 

 

 

 

And I will finish off with the 18z GFS zonal means. Temperature mean starts at 15000pa (150mb). The polar night jet still holding its act together, despite the otherwise decent 18z run.

 

 

 

Regards.

[aginob]

for recretos

i hope you and other user understand me

my english is not perfect

midel => model 

 

for recretos

respect for your great ( midel ) sorry ! models posting

 

 

my name is gino

aginob is for login

===

off topic

 

british isles

channel - bretagne

wind speede: 165 kn => 300 km/h

a significant atlantic storm called dirk ( 925 mb )

UK stormy weather explained

Edited December 24, 2013 by aginob

[Buriedundersnow]

to my untrained eye it actually looks like the vortex may have lost some of its power on the 0z GFS

 

0z left and 18z right

 

[Duane S.]

Strong wave2 activity still being forecast

 

The vortex looks to be put under severe strain

 

Then as the Wave2 naturally wanes we could be looking at a wave1 attack following in swiftly behind?...

One to watch to see if it intensifies and then of course verifies. Certainly would be another body blow to the vortex.

[MattH]

Strong wave2 activity still being forecast

ecmwfzm_ha2_f216.gif

 

The vortex looks to be put under severe strain

ecmwf1f240.gif

ecmwf5f240.gif

 

Then as the Wave2 naturally wanes we could be looking at a wave1 attack following in swiftly behind?...

ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.gif

One to watch to see if it intensifies and then of course verifies. Certainly would be another body blow to the vortex.

 

Good summary. I think what is important here is the wave 1 activity as much as the wave 2. Clearly we all know that despite what looks to be quite a strong wave 2 event, in association with the Asian MT, that this alone is never going to completely disrupt the vortex. So using Ed's classic boxer analogy, one punch just isn't going to get the job done and a second or third 'upper cut' is required before said boxer hits the deck...especially this season!

 

I think the wave 1 activity needs to be as potent as possible to deliver a secondary 'blow'. It really is quite remarkable just how to plan things are going this winter so far. The signals back in November for a complete lack of blocking through the early part of the winter at higher latitudes has, without question, come to fruition and that isn't going to change any time soon. From a cold fans point of view I think it remains a case of wait and hope that the middle and latter half of the winter delivers the goods. Despite the usual grumbles that the 'sun is getting stronger' and all that rubbish by February, if the patterns are favorable then clearly February can deliver some bitterly cold conditions and once again March of this year provides one of the best examples of how a March month can easily be an extension of winter.

 

Fortunately Christmas has turned out seasonal, weather wise of course, amongst an extremely unsettled and Atlantic dominated pattern. If these 'hits' to the vortex keep appearing then I would surmise that it's only a  matter of time that it becomes more disorganized and eventually this will have an impact on the PV within the trop.

 

Merry Christmas to one and all and here's to late January and February!....

 

Matt.

[stodge]

 

I think that the stratospheric analysis that far back is way beyond our abilities. It is just too far back and there is hardly any data to do reconstructions. There was more data towards the end of 1800's, but event that is not really enough data to do an in depth analysis of the stratosphere. We can just speculate about it. At least that is my take on it.  

As for the LIA itself, I think there are plenty of technical and less technical publications on its possible/likely causes.

Best regards.

 

Thank you for the response, my friend. It's something that is intriguing me and has done for some time. I'm trying to get my head round what a "typical" LIA or Ice Age winter would have looked like in the UK.

 

Knowing what we know now about the climate and how it operates, I'm sure it would be possible to generate a climate model for the LIA and doubtless this has been done somewhere by someone. Of course, even in the LIA there would have been "milder" winters just not so many of them so it seems probable that some form of Atlantic dominance (powered by the stratosphere and the PV) must have existed even then albeit weaker and more sporadic.

 

But then we're back to what makes a cold stratosphere - you'd think that in a colder world the stratosphere would be colder still and the PV stronger but the history suggests otherwise so perhaps the PV was larger but more disorganised (perhaps spreading over a much larger area of the NH) but somehow the troposphere was warmer (logical given the radiation/inversion effects, am I on to something here?) creating a feedback loop where the warm troposphere kept the stratosphere warm preventing the formation of a strong PV and encouraging more HLB leading to more radiation and inversion. 

 

It would require a strong boost from the Atlantic (what were the SSTs in the LIA?) to break the loop so the cold, dry winter would just drag on for weeks if not months and the summers would be characterised by more rain as the LPs took a more southerly track.

 

How does this sound ?

[Catacol]

First post in a while - been away and lurking only. Back now

 

I'm still trying to get my head around tropospheric model forecasts and the reality of wave warming events. To summarise as briefly as I can with my infant knowledge: Rockies and Tibetan plateau the 2 key zones with the required mountain height to create the bounce into the upper atmosphere, and low pressure to west and high pressure to east to create a torque event. Hence why warming events focus on Asia and the US. Pretty basic stuff I suppose... but has taken me a while to absorb.

 

So here is a 48 hour GFS chart that I presume helps explain warming forecasts over Asia in the medium term but also some warming off the Rockies:

 

 

Note the low heights anomaly near Tibet and also a low pressure system brushing the north end of the Rockies.

 

This chart therefore interests me a great deal and may be linked to Ed's thoughts. GFS in FI:

 

 

This looks pretty big to me. Note the UK under a pretty potent and cold looking storm system... but to our east we have very warm air being pulled up towards Russia and then being returned southwards by what (to my eye) looks the deepest low pressure system to hit Tibet this winter.

 

Now then - I am a novice here and would appreciate anyone putting me right on any of this interpretation (its bound to be too simplistic) - but 2 thoughts:

 

1. Bigger warming on the horizon for 8 Jan onwards? Major height rises over Asia penetrating the arctic and perhaps the vortex? Interesting potential indeed with such a deep trough over the UK.... big easterly by mid Jan?

2. As has been noted the ECM tends to overblow the degree of strat warming. Might this be directly linked to its tendency to over exaggerate the meridionality of the tropospheric pattern as has been noted by quite a few on NetW this season?

Edited December 24, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[karyo]

The 6z GFS is disappointing as the 2nd warming that the last 2 runs projected to intensify over the Atlantic, is rather subdued and the vortex much stronger!

Let's hope it returns on the 12z.

Karyo

[sebastiaan1973]

Good summary. I think what is important here is the wave 1 activity as much as the wave 2. Clearly we all know that despite what looks to be quite a strong wave 2 event, in association with the Asian MT, that this alone is never going to completely disrupt the vortex. So using Ed's classic boxer analogy, one punch just isn't going to get the job done and a second or third 'upper cut' is required before said boxer hits the deck...especially this season!

 

I think the wave 1 activity needs to be as potent as possible to deliver a secondary 'blow'. It really is quite remarkable just how to plan things are going this winter so far. The signals back in November for a complete lack of blocking through the early part of the winter at higher latitudes has, without question, come to fruition and that isn't going to change any time soon. From a cold fans point of view I think it remains a case of wait and hope that the middle and latter half of the winter delivers the goods. Despite the usual grumbles that the 'sun is getting stronger' and all that rubbish by February, if the patterns are favorable then clearly February can deliver some bitterly cold conditions and once again March of this year provides one of the best examples of how a March month can easily be an extension of winter.

Merry Christmas to one and all and here's to late January and February!....

 

Matt.

 

Yes Wave 1 is important. Chance for a SSW 'only' caused by Wave 2 is small. Please read this part of the conclusion of Kuttippurath and G. Nikulin

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/7243/2012/acpd-12-7243-2012-print.pdf

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2

 

If they creators of OPI are right (until now they are!) tropsheric wave activity should be low in januar. So the polar vortex will resist the coming on attack by wave 2 and in some degree wave 1 but will recover. Not only by not crossing the surfzone but secondly no follow up by any significant wave activity. Interesting times ahead!

 

 

[karyo]

Sebastian1973 why is that "interesting times ahead"? It sounds terrible to me as it means that January will continue with the same theme we have now!

Karyo

[Don]

Sebastian1973 why is that "interesting times ahead"? It sounds terrible to me as it means that January will continue with the same theme we have now!Karyo

Interesting if you like stormy wet weather!? I agree though, a grim reading if you're a coldie that's for sure! Would Likely have to wait until February or March for proper cold if that comes off? Edited December 24, 2013 by Don

[sebastiaan1973]

Sebastian1973 why is that "interesting times ahead"? It sounds terrible to me as it means that January will continue with the same theme we have now!Karyo

 

Yes, no winter weather. What I mean, that in my opinion it is interesting to watch and fellow the developments in the atmosphere. Once again I realise the importance of the stratosphere for our weather. And although we have a strong wave 2 forecast, it is interesting to see if 'our' prediction of a limited effect on the polarvortex becomes reality. So it's more or less a intellectual interest.

 

Of course I prefer cold weather so I can skate over here in the Netherlands over canals, lakes and so on.

[Catacol]

Quite a few this year have been speaking of the need to be at solar maximum with a westerly QBO in order to stand the greatest chance of a SW.

 

I'm not understanding this... and I'm afraid I'm not a statistical/mathematical type who is happy to see a statistical correlation and leave it at that.

 

Come anyone explain to me - in terms of the physical world - why a solar maximum would be more preferable than solar minimum when dealing with warming events in +QBO years?

 

My understanding - and also from observation - is that when then the sun increases in activity we get an increased westerly response in the troposphere, at least at our latitude. I still have GP's explanation for the failed easterly last December etched in my brain on that one... but why is increased westerlies good news for a warming? If there is a correlation between that and mountain torque events over the Rockies/Tibet then why is it linked in particular to +QBO? Surely it would be a common factor whatever the prevailing QBO?

[UV-RAY]

Quite a few this year have been speaking of the need to be at solar maximum with a westerly QBO in order to stand the greatest chance of a SW.

 

I'm not understanding this... and I'm afraid I'm not a statistical/mathematical type who is happy to see a statistical correlation and leave it at that.

 

Come anyone explain to me - in terms of the physical world - why a solar maximum would be more preferable than solar minimum when dealing with warming events in +QBO years?

 

My understanding - and also from observation - is that when then the sun increases in activity we get an increased westerly response in the troposphere, at least at our latitude. I still have GP's explanation for the failed easterly last December etched in my brain on that one... but why is increased westerlies good news for a warming? If there is a correlation between that and mountain torque events over the Rockies/Tibet then why is it linked in particular to +QBO? Surely it would be a common factor whatever the prevailing QBO?

The only thing that I've seen  going is from historical records, when a solar max with a +QBO increases the chances of HLB. I think?

Edited December 24, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Ruben Amsterdam]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2

 

If they creators of OPI are right (until now they are!) tropsheric wave activity should be low in januar. So the polar vortex will resist the coming on attack by wave 2 and in some degree wave 1 but will recover. Not only by not crossing the surfzone but secondly no follow up by any significant wave activity. Interesting times ahead!

 

 

Hi Sebastiaan,

 

I'm still not sure about what's actually plotted (it's not a standardized something, as the average line is not at 1) on the y-axis of this graph, but that's not my main point. By the way, do they refer to wave 1 and 2, or shorter waves as well?

 

This graph shows only troposferic wave-activity. Couldn't it be possible -hypothetically- that the maximum in february is forced by the stratosphere, i.e. by some sort of wave-induced event (either minor or major warming) in mid-january?

 

My point being: how relevant is troposferic wave (1/2) activity? Last years wave-1 activity was of course high during and after the SSW, but I'm not exactly blown away by the troposferic wave response. Or should we be looking at wave-3 and up?

 

And yes, I would love skating on the canals and lakes here. You know I'm a big fan. Even a minor event or a discplaced vortex may bring the ice we want

 

Cheers and merry Xmass

Edited December 24, 2013 by Ruben Amsterdam

[karyo]

Yes, no winter weather. What I mean, that in my opinion it is interesting to watch and fellow the developments in the atmosphere. Once again I realise the importance of the stratosphere for our weather. And although we have a strong wave 2 forecast, it is interesting to see if 'our' prediction of a limited effect on the polarvortex becomes reality. So it's more or less a intellectual interest.

 

Of course I prefer cold weather so I can skate over here in the Netherlands over canals, lakes and so on.

Fair enough, I just wanted to make sure that I understood what you meant.

Personally, I hope that the creators of OPI are wrong and we get a lot of wave breaking activity from now on. 

 

Karyo

[sebastiaan1973]

Ruben Amsterdam I will ask Riccardo in http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2

 

 

Fair enough, I just wanted to make sure that I understood what you meant.

Personally, I hope that the creators of OPI are wrong and we get a lot of wave breaking activity from now on. 

 

Karyo

 

Mixed feelings. It they are right and remain so in the next years in my opinion a major breakthrough in Long Term forecasts is made. And of course I hope they are wrong because I suppose with me, everybody here is eager to see some snow or likes to skate!

[LTL]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/cfs/01_2014_00z_850temp.png?cb=555

 

Splitting...?

[Recretos]

 

My point being: how relevant is troposferic wave (1/2) activity? Last years wave-1 activity was of course high during and after the SSW, but I'm not exactly blown away by the troposferic wave response. Or should we be looking at wave-3 and up?

 

When dealing with wave "activity", there is one vital thing to keep in mind. Troposphere and stratosphere are on two different "planes" (nothing new there lol),  Meaning, that as we all know, most of the atmosphere' mass is in the troposphere. And as we rise up, the pressure is falling fast at first, and the higher we go it is basically falling on a logarithmic scale. The height is increasing at the same rate, while the pressure drop is getting lesser the higher we go. Basically what I am trying to say is, that 1km of height difference in the mid to upper stratosphere. may only mean the difference of 1 or 2mb (in general terms), while in the troposphere it can mean a difference of 100-150mb. At the same time, when going through a horizontal distance on a single pressure level, lets say 500mb, you are going to have a faster and smaller height change in a wave (100-200m, depending on the wave amplitude), than when compared to the stratospheric waves when you are going to have a wave on a bigger distance, but much more amplified (800+m), due to the reasons I mentioned above and some general rules of meteorology. So most (if not all) of the time the tropospheric wave amplitudes are all but impressive when they are on the same graphical scale as the stratospheric waves.  

 

Just a graphical example, I draw you "basic-general" wave amplitude in comparison at different height. Y axis is height in milibars, and X is horizontal distance. The height is only to represent, well, the height (isobaric).  (tho the horizontal distance of the waves is not really in realistic proportions).

 

 

As for the troposphere, due to the generally know causes, you can have more than 2 waves, up to 5 at least, depending if you count shortwaves or not. 

GFS and some other models actually have a special parameter, called "5-wave geopotential height" that is calculated only for 500mb. When compared to normal height map, it averages out the field to a max 5 waves. Basically showing more or less just the (actual) long waves (Rossby waves).

 

Practical example:

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/cfs/01_2014_00z_850temp.png?cb=555

 

Splitting...?

 

 

Reforming :

 

Regards.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Recretos

[Gael_Force]

Quite a few this year have been speaking of the need to be at solar maximum with a westerly QBO in order to stand the greatest chance of a SW.

 

I'm not understanding this... and I'm afraid I'm not a statistical/mathematical type who is happy to see a statistical correlation and leave it at that.

 

Come anyone explain to me - in terms of the physical world - why a solar maximum would be more preferable than solar minimum when dealing with warming events in +QBO years?

 

My understanding - and also from observation - is that when then the sun increases in activity we get an increased westerly response in the troposphere, at least at our latitude. I still have GP's explanation for the failed easterly last December etched in my brain on that one... but why is increased westerlies good news for a warming? If there is a correlation between that and mountain torque events over the Rockies/Tibet then why is it linked in particular to +QBO? Surely it would be a common factor whatever the prevailing QBO?

 

Have you read this paper?  I found it useful in explaining the different combinations and the historical impacts.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS3883.1

 

These studies only look at a miniscule period of time and no strat records at all for when the sun cycle was last this weak - we are all on a learning curve from here on.

[Duane S.]

It's Xmas so only positives allowed today, so based on that, how about this... Just as the very strong Wave2 activity backs off...

 

 

Wave2 and Wave1 alternating attacks? If this continues to show there will be a wide variety of FI charts on offer in the coming days/weeks I would imagine. All eyes on where the vortex is going to get displaced to?