Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[phil nw.]

   thats the question phil re SSW's. recent ones have seen an immediate trop response before the generally accepted series of predicted downwellings occur over the next couple of months. we just dont know until it occurs but the modelling should gves us clues. (as will the predicted flux). IF the warming continues to show and starts to come closer and show the strat vortex splitting, then it is not unreasonable to expect a big trop ridge to be thrown into the arctic and the trop p/v to split apart quite soon afterwards. unlikely before w/c 6th jan and maybe even the week following. what odds on a SSW with a destroyed vortex to follow (and an eastern canandian remnant continuing to fire up the jet across the atlantic!)

I guess there's no template for these Nick-just going by the accepted time lag of downwelling.I hope like you there's a quick response,if indeed there's to be one.

I see latest run shows up to -12C.

[aginob]

hi together

off topic

 

@recretos

thanks for your nice answer ( i think this ... make yourself )

i'm new user here ( netweather forum )

but I know this netweather forum many years ago

 

no problem ... I have many other models

especially from the NOAA NCEP

 

again respect for your interesting post and models

( i hope you can me understand ... my english is not perfect

the english language i myself have learned at my home and england

 

my personal opinion => black background is better

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2867433

 

so long gino

 

for netweather forum admins

sorry my off topic

Edited December 20, 2013 by aginob

[Recretos]

As I promised, some 12z products. Some old and some new. 

 

GEFS, Navy ensembles and CFS 12z, are more or less on the same page, with the FNMOC and CFS looking better. GEFS peaks at -28, FNMOC at -20 and CFS at -16. I will soon have to expand the colour scale up to +5 from current -5.

 

  

 

 

I would also like to present some new products that I will add into my "stratosphere model artillery ()", since this year I decided to really try and model the stratosphere as best as I can, because there is a limited availability/diversity of stratospheric products on the internet, except the awesome FU-Berlin which sadly only goes to 240h. And admit it, we/you all want to see as deep in the FI as we can.  I even included the netweather link on two products, as a test feature more or less.  The graphics don't look the same (text font/size for example), but that is a matter of tweaking.

 

The first new product is a zonal mean lat/time display, in this case GEFS zonal wind. It has a gradual poleward movement of the jet. 

 

 

The same display, only for temperature. Poleward warming is obvious in the later stages.

 

 

Next is a simple stereographic display. I am experimenting with this type of display to use it mainly for reanalysis. 

 

  

 

Next are two "fixed time" lat/hight zonal mean products, which might seem familiar, since it is the same type of display as on the FU-Berlin, but not as pretty as there, because of the lower resolution of the FI GFS. 

 

Note: the vertical scale is in pascals, which means 100pa=1hpa=1mb.

 

 

Last bu not least, zonal mean zonal wind. This is more or less useful for determining the SSW timing (if there is one), by spotting the zonal reversal at 60N @10mb.

 

 

Best regards.

 

EDIT:

GEFS 18z really ramping it up, to -22.  The best perturbation goes up to -8.

  

 

This is a time/lat display through the longitude with the highest temp. increase. 

 

Edited December 21, 2013 by Recretos

[aginob]

hi together

 

are you interested ?

northern hemisphere forecast

monitoring stratosphere

various level

from NOAA NCEP GFS

 

site optimized for 1024x768 resolution and only for IE

not for browser mozilla firefox ( very pity )

 

http://www.vallepelignameteo.org ( go to modelli meteorologici )

http://www.vallepelignameteo.org/Modelli/Strato/Stratosfera.html#g50hpa

 

have fun

===

off topic

 

i have problem with all my bookmark from cpc ncep noaa gov weathersite

not can open www online ... i receive advice about blank

Edited December 21, 2013 by aginob

[cooling climate]

Third row down looks very interesting.

[Duane S.]

Strongest wave 2 forecast so far from the ECM

 

From this pressure will be put on the vortex for sure but will we get significant enough warm air infiltration into the core to have any real effect?

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2013 by s4lancia

[bluearmy]

Strongest wave 2 forecast so far from the ECM

ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

 

From this pressure will be put on the vortex for sure but will we get significant enough warm air infiltration into the core to have any real effect?

ecmwf1f240.gif

Wave 2 is strong by day 10 which is where cc's heat momentum interest comes from. thie surges of wave activity do manage to take around 10/15 m/s off the zonal winds at 10hpa, though its likely the previous ones responsible by day 10 and we are unable to see how much the latter one will affect. I'm beginning to decamp to the view that the vortex will survive this activity pretty much intact (less able to withstand the next onslaught), though in the trop, there looks to be a very slack zonal wind polar profile - intact weakly negative, reflected in the building of an arctic high on the Siberian side of the pole.

[sebastiaan1973]

Two interesting articles.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/7243/2012/acpd-12-7243-2012-print.pdf

http://atmos.snu.ac.kr/swson/papers/Martineau-Son-JGR2013.pdf

[lorenzo]

Two interesting articles.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/7243/2012/acpd-12-7243-2012-print.pdf

http://atmos.snu.ac.kr/swson/papers/Martineau-Son-JGR2013.pdf

 

Thanks Sebastiaan, had not read the Martineau paper before, some fascinating insight there on the importance of Wave 2 Activity.  Possibly more important key point is the differences between SSW events, underlines the importance of poleward EP Flux also.

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Sebastiaan, had not read the Martineau paper before, some fascinating insight there on the importance of Wave 2 Activity.  Possibly more important key point is the differences between SSW events, underlines the importance of poleward EP Flux also.

 

Yes, and the differences in downwelling. Which might be interesting to watch in this case as well.

[lorenzo]

If any one has time off over the festive period, another paper examining the solar impact on the stratosphere. Some excellent discussion in this paper relating to the impact of Solar Maximum / Minimum on the Stratosphere, section 4.4 is really good.

 

Also includes one of the most extensive Reference sections I have seen. http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~hourdin/PUBLIS/Marchand2012.pdf

[bluearmy]

Berlin server needs another kick. Hope this doesn't happen over the Xmas hols. No idea if anyone will be around to kick it!

[Ruben Amsterdam]

Hi all,

 

my first post on this forum. I've been reading all the brilliant posts here for some two years and decided to sign up! This forum stirred my interest in the stratosphere and the way we can (potentially) use it for long range weather forecasts. You really are doing a nice job here, keep up the good work!

 

I spotted something new in the GFS06z FI: a pulse of warming over the Canadian sector. Might be just the push over the edge (of the cliff) our beloved vortex needs?

[lorenzo]

Hi all,

 

my first post on this forum. I've been reading all the brilliant posts here for some two years and decided to sign up! This forum stirred my interest in the stratosphere and the way we can (potentially) use it for long range weather forecasts. You really are doing a nice job here, keep up the good work!

 

I spotted something new in the GFS06z FI: a pulse of warming over the Canadian sector. Might be just the push over the edge (of the cliff) our beloved vortex needs?

 

Welcome along to Netweather Ruben, great to see more International visitors to the strat thread. Another trend to keep an eye on, if FU Berlin stop giving storms ridiculous names and fix the strat. server.

[aginob]

hi people

 

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 10 mb

temperature at 50 mb

temperature at 100 mb

 

 

 

===

edit

northern hemisphere

dynamic tropopause 1.5 PVU

 

Edited December 22, 2013 by aginob

[Gael_Force]

Hi all,

 

my first post on this forum. I've been reading all the brilliant posts here for some two years and decided to sign up! This forum stirred my interest in the stratosphere and the way we can (potentially) use it for long range weather forecasts. You really are doing a nice job here, keep up the good work!

 

I spotted something new in the GFS06z FI: a pulse of warming over the Canadian sector. Might be just the push over the edge (of the cliff) our beloved vortex needs?

 

Hi and welcome.

 

I've not been through all the historic animations and papers but don't recall seeing anything quite like that as a precursor template. Anyone seen this type of double barrelled stretching in the archives?

[karyo]

Impressive warming past 300 hours! It appears to push and shrink the mighty vortex!

 

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

Impressive warming past 300 hours! It appears to push and shrink the mighty vortex!

 

Karyo

 

Yes, IF and of course its a big if, but if we could get to the 384 charts that have been showing at both 10 and 30mb lately, I fail to see how the stratospheric vortex would recover from there, whether it would propagate the trop or not is another matter, surely the charts shown recently are indicative of a significant warming??

[aginob]

good evening

 

Arctic Polar Vortex

 

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 20 mb

ecmwf

 

===

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 30 mb

ecmwf

 

===

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 50 mb

ecmwf

 

===

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 70 mb

ecmwf

 

===

northern hemisphere

stratosphere diagnostics

temperature at 100 mb

ecmwf

 

Edited December 22, 2013 by aginob

[karyo]

Yes, IF and of course its a big if, but if we could get to the 384 charts that have been showing at both 10 and 30mb lately, I fail to see how the stratospheric vortex would recover from there, whether it would propagate the trop or not is another matter, surely the charts shown recently are indicative of a significant warming??

The good thing is that the beginnings of the warming are now in the reliable timeframe. It will be an interesting festive season regarding stratospheric developments!

 

Karyo

[Recretos]

I've not been through all the historic animations and papers but don't recall seeing anything quite like that as a precursor template. Anyone seen this type of double barrelled stretching in the archives?

 

Well, funny enough, I posted some 1963 animations, not long ago.

To refresh the memory: ECMWF ERA-40 points at 27.1 as the SSW date. 

 

 

  

 

 

GFS 12z doesnt look too bad. Here are two zonal means. The temperature height goes from 150mb up. The vortex is getting more and more compressed, as also reflected on the jet, but it is still fairly compact. 

 

 

 

 

 

On a fun note, did I hear someone say "east QBO coming down slowly"?

 

 

Cheers.

[Gael_Force]

Thanks Recretos, I mentioned the similarity to the '63 event a while back, less emphasis on the Asian side at that time - the black and white geopotential charts in the paper do not illustrate the temp profile as well as your coloured ones.

 

The angling of the stretch is different in that the current forecast has the warming extending near to the UK  while the 63 event had the warming more focused on the western Atlantic and US. Any thoughts on what that may lead to down the line?

 

 View presentation is different but side by side for comparison.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Latest GFS run we again are seeing the stratospheric polar vortex coming under intense wave 2 pressure - not enough to break it mind you - it will be very much the case of the distorted balloon that reforms when the wave 2 pressure decreases, but  the vortex will be riper for breaking should we get another burst of wave 2 activity later in January. Certainly worth watching but note that the lowest heights at 10 hPa and 30 hPa remain the same throughout the run.

[Recretos]

Thanks Recretos, I mentioned the similarity to the '63 event a while back, less emphasis on the Asian side at that time - the black and white geopotential charts in the paper do not illustrate the temp profile as well as your coloured ones.

 

The angling of the stretch is different in that the current forecast has the warming extending near to the UK  while the 63 event had the warming more focused on the western Atlantic and US. 

 

 

You have to consider two things while at it.

 

First: Reanalysis like the ERA project, or NCEP R2, or JMA25,... are all basically just "hybrid models". Meaning they also have resolutions just like normal models. Usually the resolution is from 0.5 to 2.5 deg. or more, depending on the dataset. This also affects spatial distributions of different parameters and that is also why the warmer temperatures (on the analysis that I presented for Jan. 63), look more widespread out and not as close and focused to the main core as in the GFS chart. I have noticed exactly the same features in low resolution ensemble outputs. 

 

And second: These datasets are basically close approximations, calculated from all available data by numerical methods. So everything before the main satellite era (1979) has less data than after, also affecting the output besides the resolution. Now I am not saying that the outputs are not accurate, not at all. My main point is, that in reality, the situation in Jan. 1963 perhaps looked pretty much similar to our GFS FI scenarios, regarding the warming being closer to the core, as you would expect. But I had to explain in the long way.

 

 

Latest GFS run we again are seeing the stratospheric polar vortex coming under intense wave 2 pressure - not enough to break it mind you - it will be very much the case of the distorted balloon that reforms when the wave 2 pressure decreases, but  the vortex will be riper for breaking should we get another burst of wave 2 activity later in January. Certainly worth watching but note that the lowest heights at 10 hPa and 30 hPa remain the same throughout the run.

 

Couldn't agree more. I do believe that there is perhaps just slightly too much emphasis on the temperature itself. That is also one reason why I am trying to present other products, like zonal mean zonal winds, etc,.. to show in what state the vortex really is, and eventually if it is close to a "breaking point" (so to speak).

Lets not forget that in the beginning of Jan. 1963, we also had wave2 and warming associated with it, but the vortex reformed after the wave 2 activity backed down, and it was more than 3 weeks later that it "fell" under the new wave 2 activity, this time stronger of course. 

 

Not trying to do any direct comparisons, but just a real life example from the past. Basically it is all still a bit too far in the FI to even start speculating about possible SSWs (tho I know no one here is doing that, but I read about it on other forums), especially while there is no real sign of the vortex actually starting to weaken at a high pace from inside out, which will be seen first on the GPH charts and on the zonal mean of the polar night jet. 

 

If I would have any power in weather, I would remove the Atlantic wave and keep the Pacific one, displace the vortex and then throw in the Atlantic wave for the final blow. But now we have almost extreme wave 2 activity, that is basically amplifying the vortex more than it is (/it will) destroying it, which was my main "concern" already way back when we first saw glimpses of a decent wave 2 coming into play. 

 

Who knows, perhaps the weather surprises. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. 

 

Kind regards.

[karyo]

Latest GFS run we again are seeing the stratospheric polar vortex coming under intense wave 2 pressure - not enough to break it mind you - it will be very much the case of the distorted balloon that reforms when the wave 2 pressure decreases, but  the vortex will be riper for breaking should we get another burst of wave 2 activity later in January. Certainly worth watching but note that the lowest heights at 10 hPa and 30 hPa remain the same throughout the run.

 

What does that mean? 

 

Karyo