Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Frosty.]

Yes the Gfs & Ecm 00z are looking very unsettled, including the T+240 hours timeframe.

[UV-RAY]

Yes the Gfs & Ecm 00z are looking very unsettled, including the T+240 hours timeframe.

This sort of pattern seems very hard to break out of once it gets going, though there are exceptional circumstances such as December 2010 were the Atlantic was stopped dead in it's tracks. This mornings models paint a very unsettled and fairly mild picture with copious amount of rain for those of us unfortunate enough to live out West and with the PV cranking up a notch as November drags on we are looking for crumbs of comfort in an empty biscuit tin, if it's cold your seeking.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models, though differing in the track of individual Low pressure systems paint a very similar picture over the coming few days. The weather will often be wet and windy especially in the South tomorrow and Saturday as a couple of Low pressure systems swing across from the West. In the North today's rain and showers will be maintained through the weekend too and strong winds will develop for most too, especially on Sunday. Temperatures will range to rather mild in the South to rather chillier across the North on the showery air.

 

GFS then shows a very changeable pattern for the remainder of it's run with spells of wind and rain alternating with some drier and brighter interludes, especially in the South due to temporary rises of pressure building from the SE at times. Temperatures should stay close to average overall and mild at times in the South although this will often be offset by the strength of the Westerly wind shown blowing across the UK for much of the period.

 

UKMO this morning shows a strong Westerly flow blowing across the UK through the middle of next week. The air will be relatively mild away from the far North and there will be a lot of cloud and rain at times for all, especially but not exclusively to the North and West.

 

GEM shows a strong Westerly flow too across the UK through the middle of next week with gales in places and rain at times for most. With time the flow weakens and backs Southerly with a quieter and mild interlude for a time before cloud, rain and potential Southerly gales approach the West on Day 10.

 

NAVGEM today gradually pushes the strong Westerly flow further to the North later next week as High pressure builds North from Europe. The weather on the ground would improve to become mild and dry with some brightness for some though the risk of some rain remains in the North and West.

 

ECM today shows a windy and mild period midweek with some rain at times especially in the North. Towards the end of the run the flow backs SW and the weather deteriorates further everywhere with troughs swinging NE bringing strong winds and rain for all again by day 10.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to average a greater chance of milder than average conditions rather than colder than average. There is a lot of spread between members with alternating warmer and colder days without ever becoming particularly cold. The initial amounts of rainfall could be quite high, especially this weekend but with time a pressure build to the South could well restrict rainfall amounts to more modest levels and with less frequency.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow across the UK tilting more West to East over the weekend before reverting back to a more SW to NE flow across the UK thereafter. Looking into the outer reaches of the output there seems little significant signs of change over the period.

 

In Summary there is no change to report today with Westerly winds totally dominant over the two week period. Winds will be strong again for large swathes of the time with a lot of rain at times, especially this weekend and the start of next week. Thereafter though winds remain strong milder air will be fed across the UK with rain more restricted towards the North and West with the chance of some mild brightness in the SE for a time.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks very unsettled for most of the next 10 days but there is a hint that the building euro high could bring a few fine and more benign days in around 8-9 days time to the southeastern half of england with sunny spells, light winds and overnight fog and perhaps a touch of frost, remaining unsettled and windier across the northwestern half of the uk throughout. Early next week looks rather chilly with a risk of showers turning wintry across northern hills and a few overnight frosts if skies clear but it then looks as though it will be turning very disturbed again but with temperatures recovering and becoming rather mild across the south at times, rather cooler oceanic air further north, even a slight risk of polar maritime incursions across n.ireland and scotland for a time next week.

 

In summary, it continues to look like the very unsettled pattern will persist with only brief flat ridges separating us from the next atlantic low sweeping in and possibly a window of fine weather for the southeast later next week before it turns unsettled nationwide once again.

 

In the nearer timeframe, more heavy rain on the way for the south tomorrow, a risk of local flooding and winds strengthening again, drier further north with just a few showers and bright spells, the heavy rain & gales then pushing north through northern uk on friday night and saturday, the weekend is looking very unsettled.

[joggs]

Well,you feel as a coldie alot of patience is to be required looking at the model suite atm.But those who enjoy the weather over the next few weeks been shown by the models probably deserve it after the last 6/7 autumn/winters or so bar 1.Hope the strat conditions help soon and start too reflect this in the models.

[Newberryone]

Probably a tad early to write winter off just yet, being October 30th n'all.....

Rather presumptuous of me alright  I have to admit  

[MPG]

Nice chart in FI

 

[Mapantz]

I don't know if it has been mentioned already? But NCEP will be dishing out a large update to the GFS soon, and there's talk of it rivaling the Euro models.  They all have their plus and minus points of course.  

[The Northern Ramper]

Much better to have this set up in place at the end of October than the end of December.

[Yarmy]

Hmmm...

 

 

 

And it's only at T384 on the GFS.

[MPG]

Hmmm...

 

 

 

And it's only at T384 on the GFS.

I just posted something simular......trends trends trends.........

[Newberryone]

Remember how the Ecm 12z @ T+240 hours was trending settled last night, well, the 00z has flipped back to unsettled weather persisting. Overall, the Ecm 00z is a very unsettled run, a lot of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain, more disruptive winds at times and rather chilly early next week, thereafter, unsettled, windy but occasionally mild in the south, temps closer to average in the north, the southeast will probably have the best of any fine spells between atlantic systems.

Being a wild weather fan I must admit I'm elated at how the models have changed again overnight in the long term outlook. Admittedly, it could all change back again to yesterdays depressing scenario showing some sort of Euro high but in light of the fact our settled spell lasted so very long I'm quietly confident mother nature has a way to go yet before redressing the balance  

[johnholmes]

Hmmm...

 

 

 

And it's only at T384 on the GFS.

 

and about as likely as a temperature of 30C in December in Lerwick!

[radiohead]

I don't know if it has been mentioned already? But NCEP will be dishing out a large update to the GFS soon, and there's talk of it rivaling the Euro models.  They all have their plus and minus points of course.

 

The FIM has already been operating on an experimental level for years, it was planned the replace the GFS in 2014, I don't know if thats still on track.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows a window of fine weather next monday (4th November) as a weak ridge pushes east. It would also be much colder than we have seen so far this autumn with a cold, crisp, frosty start to the day but then clear blue skies and sparkling sunshine, if it verifies, it will be a nice change from mild, wet & windy, which is what soon follows the fine interlude.

[Frosty.]

Fantastic mid November charts from the Gfs 06z op, this would be a dream for all us coldies..make it so SNOW  

[Evening thunder]

Somehow this mornings ECM is even worse than yesterdays 12z. The UKMO is going the same way too at T144. The GFS and right at the death the GEM at least show something a little drier, if still average to mild temperature wise.

 

Am I the only one that finds the kind of output on the ECM interesting?

 

It does briefly risk turning more boring with a Euro high close to the south threatening to cut off the more interesting/changeable weather and turn to a more constant mild flow/Bartlett type set up without much weather, but that doesn't happen and by 240 it's looking rather interesting again with stormy weather over Scotland a storm winding up to our west

of course unlikely to verify at that time frame, but looks like plenty of weather to come. I would prefer this to any cloudy cold spell though I would like a few frosts sometime soon, but not too bothered if I have to wait until later for decent cold as long as the weather keeps me entertained in the mean time.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

Fantastic mid November charts from the Gfs 06z op, this would be a dream for all us coldies..make it so SNOW  

 

The met office remain uninterested in anything cold for November all signals are still pointing to a mild November

 

November 15th to 29th

 

Taking the country as a whole, temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be near, or perhaps above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of overnight frost than can usually be expected at this time of year.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows a cold interlude next monday with polar air pushing south and an early frost with temperatures struggling but from tuesday onwards, the pattern flattens out with more atlantic weather racing in, the south becoming milder, the north continuing in a rather cooler north atlantic airflow. As time goes on, the jet begins to buckle as high pressure starts to build from the south/se, eventually the weather charts begin to look anticyclonic for the southern half of the uk with the unsettled and windier weather being gradually shunted further and further north by mid november, I think that on balance, this seems a reasonably realistic outcome beyond the next 10-12 days or so, the north of the uk could even improve later. The 6z perturbations are a mixed bag, there are some very unsettled and windy options which may lead to cold shots later in november but there is also good support among the ensembles for a settled spell to develop within the next 2 weeks.

 

Sorry but the charts are not in the correct order, computer glitch, the bottom chart is 4th nov and so on going up, the first chart is the last.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Frosty.

[Catacol]

The met office remain uninterested in anything cold for November all signals are still pointing to a mild November

 

Yes - and it is an interesting situation. Forecasts for next week have a high over the north pacific ridging into the arctic and putting the tropospheric vortex under a certain degree of pressure. MJO forecasts place the first half of November in weak phase 8 moving to phase 1. November composites for this place the UK under low pressure so a call of wet seems to fit ok, but in both composites there is evidence of pressure rises to the north or west and so I am surprised a bit at the call of mild. It is not impossible of course to have northern heights and a southerly feed, especially if the trough is cut off, but neither is it certain that the trough wont position itself such that the feed is more northerly than southerly. Phase 8 composite here

 

 

 

and then moving towards this, if the MJO plots are to be believed:

 

 

 

 

and just for good measure a reasonably reliable timeframe image of the ridging into the arctic, pumped up by quite an intense depression tracking out of east asia:

 

 

 

 

Finally the ensemble mean forecast for mid month. Clearly very different to how the Met are seeing it!

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Frosty.]

yeah but the met office could easily change their outlook at the drop of a hat, as they have been forced to do at times this year already, a mild november is not set in stone so I would advise those who love mild weather not to get too comfy..things do change, and no forecaster can accurately say what the weather will do beyond a week ahead.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

I think more of the 6z op run cold shots could pop up in the weeks ahead, cold snaps can and do interrupt generally mild patterns, all it requires is a bit of upstream amplification, a bit of luck... and.......BINGO

[Tim Bland]

The met office remain uninterested in anything cold for November all signals are still pointing to a mild November

Why would they? The 06z is the 1st run to show it. They will quickly change their tune though if this is shown on future runs! something to watch!

[Frosty.]

Nobody can say the next four weeks will be non stop mild mush, things change so I'm not prepared to write the whole of november off as a damp squib on that basis. : - )

[Frosty.]

Why would they? The 06z is the 1st run to show it. They will quickly change their tune though if this is shown on future runs! something to watch!

Spot on Tim, cold snaps can pop up at relatively short notice and predictions more than a week or so ahead are largely guesswork, sometimes it's tricky forecasting even a few hours ahead.