Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[legritter]

Its brilliant being able to click the mouse and have all these wonderfull charts and Data at our fingertips .but i can remember the days back in the 80s when i would recieve fax charts by post from local Met office at a small cost .and recording late night bbc outlook ,also today we can go anywhere virtually in the world and get loads of valuable info on our hobby .i for one find the work being carried out by certain computers on being able to pick up future blocking very interesting .but it is at a very early stage and although i think it picks up on the generall area south of pole of course positioning is critical .from a personal point of view if long range was too accurate it would for me kill that feeling you get when you wait for that next computer run and a surprise pops up .just imagine the forecast of a large Azores high which is forecast to hang around for most of the Winter .and just imagine all that fun we have with CIGARS Prams Straw clutching Razor blades etc etc . HERES TO A GOOD UN ,

[Geordiesnow]

That low for the weekend looks fairly strong, although winds won't reach as high during the first part of the week, the area is much more widespread, strongest of the gusts could occur in NE Scotland around Dawn if the track and intensity of the low remains the same. Its one to watch for sure. 

 

Certainly an Atlantic driven outlook at the moment, who says the Atlantic is dead these days. PV looks strong and the pattern up to the medium term does look more or less the same but as per ever, the outlook is still subject to changes though. 

[Timmytour]

And look at the PV. Ouch.

I wonder, with todays forecasting advances, if people back in these days would have looked at this and become beset with fear about a developing Barty....

 

[Gaz1985]

Huge Bartlett/Euro High stretching from the Atlantic into Turkey is still there in FI on the 18z GFS 

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Gaz1985

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Huge Bartlett/Euro High stretching from the Atlantic into Turkey still there in FI on the 18z GFS 

 

That has a very open route for retrogression NW up to Greenland. Would not be surprised to see screaming Northeasterlies a few runs on from this. In FI, but still....

Edited October 31, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Yarmy]

Huge Bartlett/Euro High stretching from the Atlantic into Turkey is still there in FI on the 18z GFS 

 

Again, Gaz, look at that ridging towards Greenland. A small adjustment gives a Northerly flow or blast, dare I say it. That none of this will happen is the only certainty though. :-)

[Mark Neal.]

Looking at N Hemisphere on those high pressure to the south charts doesn't look too bad, a few tweaks and we could see cold snap further down the line. Certainly not worth writing off weeks on end just yet.

[NorthernRab]

  Not a Bartlett mate! Winds coming form the NW for much of Scotland, not deep low pressure to north west blocking off any retrogression and most importantly, a small ridge pushing towards a weak surface high near Greenland which could lead to retrogression and northern blocking! Look above at what SummerSun posted if you're looking to learn about Bartletts.

 

Edit: And even more importantly yet, two weeks away!

Edited October 31, 2013 by NorthernRab

[Gaz1985]

 

  Not a Bartlett mate! Winds coming form the NW for much of Scotland, not deep low pressure to north west blocking off any retrogression and most importantly, a small ridge pushing towards a weak surface high near Greenland which could lead to retrogression and northern blocking! Look above at what SummerSun posted if you're looking to learn about Bartletts.

 

Edit: And even more importantly yet, two weeks away!

 

 

Plenty enough time then for it to evolve into a mouthwatering Super Bartlett like 1988-9 or 2011  or not 

[draztik]

The EC32 Thursday update indicates a settled spell, between Nov 14 - 24th ( on an almost nationwide scale )... When temperatures will be very mild for the time of year. Either side of this period, unsettled conditions look most likely.

Edited November 1, 2013 by draztik

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The EC32 Thursday update indicates a settled spell, between Nov 14 - 24th ( on an almost nationwide scale )... When temperatures will be very mild for the time of year. Either side of this period, unsettled conditions look most likely.

Sounds superb

One things for sure,November looks primed to begin on a very very mild note.The 0z GFS this morning really ramping up that PV over Greenland.One can almost say with a reasonable degree of confidence that the first half of Nov at the very least is a write off for cold.

Although from a POV I would much prefer mild and dry as opposed to mild and wet,yuk!

[Duane S.]

Worth remembering this is only the 1st of November so the fabric of the upcoming 1st half of the winter has yet to be woven but one of the things I remember well about early winter 11/12, specifically Mid-November through to mid December was the complete lack of good FI chart output. As the stratosphere cooled at an alarming rate so the vortex intensified and so any hope of a decent cold spell was all but gone and this was reflected in the chart output day after day after week!

 

My point is FI eye candy must of course be taken with an extremely large pinch of salt but when it starts cropping up it normally does so for a valid reason. I look at it as a window of opportunity, maybe only small and more often than not it comes to nothing but better to see it than not in that respect.

 

IMO It's still too early to make a judgement call for early winter (2-3 weeks off) but if a lot of the indicators are poor (as in 11/12) plus there are no decent charts being churned out in FI then it's highly unlikely we would be looking at any sort of decent blocking setup in the near future.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op shows why I don't buy the next 4 weeks being all mild, some of the charts are bordering on wintry with bitterly cold air bottled up to the north, it's all about finding the correct combination to unlock it but what I see on this run is a mixture of mild Tm air and occasional oceanic and brief bursts of polar maritime with even a few attempts to draw arctic air southwards. There will be plenty of interest for coldies with some nice eye candy popping up in FI at times and maybe we will get at least a few cold snaps through this month, especially the second half.

[MPG]

People talking about Bartletts in FI, well all im seeing is more and more cold shots being modelled, and the PV broken up.

[Captain Shortwave]

It will take more than a few GFS northerly topplers in deep FI to get people interested on here, including me. ECM/GEM not even remotely interested in delivering any substantial spell of even below average weather, let alone cold. The ECM does show high pressure starting to build by day 10, sort of fits with the EC32 to be honest.

[MPG]

It will take more than a few GFS northerly topplers in deep FI to get people interested on here, including me. ECM/GEM not even remotely interested in delivering any substantial spell of even below average weather, let alone cold. The ECM does show high pressure starting to build by day 10, sort of fits with the EC32 to be honest.

And the EC32 is to be considered as reliable...dont think so.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The Gfs 00z op shows why I don't buy the next 4 weeks being all mild, some of the charts are bordering on wintry with bitterly cold air bottled up to the north, it's all about finding the correct combination to unlock it but what I see on this run is a mixture of mild Tm air and occasional oceanic and brief bursts of polar maritime with even a few attempts to draw arctic air southwards. There will be plenty of interest for coldies with some nice eye candy popping up in FI at times and maybe we will get at least a few cold snaps through this month, especially the second half.

Morning frosty .

To be honest I struggle to see how you can be optimistic of wintry weather with the chats you have posted, if that's the closest winter gets in the next two wks then I'd rather look away. A few cooler outbreaks of air inbetween low pressure before it turns southwesterly again is not really what I look for in winter.

But I agree with you that the second half of November could well be better , although the ECM 32 dayer looks anything but wintry , but high pressure with frosty nights I would take all day long in November .

Keep our eyes on the strat thread ;-)

[Paul_1978]

Today is 1st Nov. Winter is generally considered to be Dec/Jan/Feb.

If anyone writes off winter at the moment, then that's like writing of Summer on 1st May where Summer is considered to be Jun/Jul/Aug.

And don't forget if you don't want to see posts with people proclaiming the development of Bartlett highs then there's always the forum's "block" feature.

[Troubleatmill]

CFS has a belter 15th dec, know its pointless lol, but nice to see cold winter charts all the same, just to show it does happen, who knows..another 2010 coming up!

 

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by tempestas

[Skullzrulerz]

CFS has a belter 15th dec, know its pointless lol, but nice to see cold winter charts all the same, just to show it does happen, who knows..another 2010 coming up!

beast from the east i have that.

[lorenzo]

It is a pity the EC32 is not available in the public domain, there is far too much rubbishing of it's output on here, when I suspect those speaking negatively may have not seen the actual output.

I was fortunate enough to see a few of the runs last winter and to be honest it had a good runof things, in addition it is considered as Ian F mentioned by the UKMO.

I certainly would not discount the outlook it is presenting. As always it is used in conjunction with other forecasting suites, Matt usually reports a balanced report of the monthly, so look out for that for a steer.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show a very unstable airflow over the UK with complex Low pressure systems moving across the UK from the West today and over the weekend. With little respite early next week either as a very strong Westerly flow with gales persists across Britain. There will be spells of heavy rain over all areas at times with sunshine and squally showers in between with little change to this to start next week either.

 

GFS then shows very little change through the rest of it's run with a brief quieter spell shown on the operational as an area of High pressure moves across for a time when fog and frost become likely. However, it isn't many days before rain and wind return again from the west with rising temperatures.

 

UKMO closes it's run today with a strong Westerly flow over all areas with adeep Low to the NNW. The strong winds are shown to carry troughs quickly East over the UK with spells of heavy rain and squally showers rushing on behind over all areas. Temperatures would be close to average.

 

GEM keeps things very windy and potentially quite stormy at times in the North with fast moving troughs carrying spells of wind and rain East across the UK in temperatures close to or somewhat above average in the South, largely offset by the wind though.

 

NAVGEM shows a less windy scenario but every bit as unsettled as Low pressure areas continue to cross East over Northern Britain with rain and showers at times in average temperatures.

 

ECM is also very unsettled today with higher pressure arriving at Day 10. Forth the majority of next week and the weekend to follow it would be very windy and unsettled with rain or showers in a gusty and strong Westerly wind. Temperatures would be close to average before becoming a little colder ahead of the ridge moving in from the West at the start of the new week.

 

The GFS Ensembles take up a very sine wave pattern in the South over the coming week before all areas see a massive spread between members in the second half of the run. Overall the pendulum swings towards an average above the long term mean but this will be offset by the strength of the mostly Westerly winds and rainfall which will continue off and on throughout the period.

 

The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the UK for the reliable future providing the catalyst for powerful storm systems to form close to Northern Britain. The pattern becomes a little more diffuse late in the run today with rather less evidence of the migration to the North shown in yesterday's output.

 

In Summary today the main difference is that the long fetch and very mild SW flow shown on yesterday's output for next week is much less marked this morning as less is made of the build of pressure to the South. As a result it's a case of deja-vu from the weekend's weather as further strong winds and troughs hurtle across the UK from the West on regular occasions bringing rain and squally showers in sequential order more or less throughout. Temperatures will be average or on the mild side though with all the wind it will not feel particularly warm especially when it is raining.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[draztik]

NAEFS 0z seems to tie-in with what the EC32 indicates, with a pressure rise from mid month.

NAEFS 11-15 day height anomalies

The ensembles continue to signal AO+, through its forecast period. So it appears the mild conditions will linger well into November.

[Summer Sun]

NAEFS 0z seems to tie-in with what the EC32 indicates, with a pressure rise from mid month.

NAEFS 11-15 day height anomalies

The ensembles continue to signal AO+, through its forecast period. So it appears the mild conditions will linger well into November.

 

This all ties in very nicely with the met office's thoughts of a mild November

[Captain Shortwave]

NAEFS 0z seems to tie-in with what the EC32 indicates, with a pressure rise from mid month.

NAEFS 11-15 day height anomalies

The ensembles continue to signal AO+, through its forecast period. So it appears the mild conditions will linger well into November.

GFS ens similar, modest rise in pressure from the south, to be expected though at this far out

Any rise in pressure looks more likely to come from the south as the jet potentially eases in intensity across the Atlantic. I know it's not the popular outcome, but it's the more likely option at the present time.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave