Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Mapantz]

Looks like a large area of England are going to see a swathe of gusts from 60-70mph tomorrow evening and night.

 

Good consensus now between the major models.

 

Appears the first swathe of high winds will just affect parts of the southern and south-western coastal parts of Ireland at first but the wrap-around occlusion will bring a large increase in wind-speeds elsewhere by evening.

 

 

The GFS gust chart i'm looking at doesn't show 60 to 70mph gusts across a large swathe, 45 to 55mph is closer to the mark, perhaps 60 to 70mph on exposed western coasts, then 50 to 60mph down the East coast as the low exits.  

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS gust chart i'm looking at doesn't show 60 to 70mph gusts across a large swathe, 45 to 55mph is closer to the mark, perhaps 60 to 70mph on exposed western coasts, then 50 to 60mph down the East coast as the low exits.  

I did think that was a bit excessive considering the low is shallower than the wave which hit the south of the UK on Monday morning. Still rain looks like being the bigger issue here. 

[Jax]

I did think that was a bit excessive considering the low is shallower than the wave which hit the south of the UK on Monday morning. Still rain looks like being the bigger issue here. 

MO have an alert for rain not wind, and then just the south coast areas.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

The winds would be funnelling down the Cheshire gap here. 60 MPH gusts around Liverpool Bay, to the peaks and into parts of the N Midlands IMO.

[radiohead]

MO have an alert for rain not wind, and then just the south coast areas.

 

There are warnings for severe gale force, perhaps storm force for Irish Sea and Lundy areas, stronger than the areas facing the south coast.

 

Wind : Cyclonic 5 or 6, becoming southwest 7 to severe gale 9, perhaps storm 10 later.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~IrishSea

[Bobby]

Looks like a large area of England are going to see a swathe of gusts from 60-70mph tomorrow evening and night.

 

Good consensus now between the major models.

 

Appears the first swathe of high winds will just affect parts of the southern and south-western coastal parts of Ireland at first but the wrap-around occlusion will bring a large increase in wind-speeds elsewhere by evening.

 

 

Those are 925 hpa winds not the surface winds, the winds on top of a mountain for example.

 

It does look very windy though with gusts of 70mph possible in coastal areas and 50mph, maybe 60mph or so inland, so gales for many especially in exposed areas.

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Bobby

[The PIT]

There are warnings for severe gale force, perhaps storm force for Irish Sea and Lundy areas, stronger than the areas facing the south coast.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~IrishSea

That's off land we're talking on land here. At present they are no warnings for wind by the met office.

Looking at the latest GFS it seems to have intensified things somewhat. Coastal regions around the south west wales and channel could have gusts around 50 to 64 mph.  This transferring to the irsih and then north sea later. North Midlands and North west England may get gusts in the lower fifites.

[Matty M]

Those are 925 hpa winds not the surface winds, the winds on top of a mountain for example.

 

It does look very windy though with gusts of 70mph possible in coastal areas and 50mph, maybe 60mph or so inland, so gales for many especially in exposed areas.

 

Really? Don't worry I know what a 925hPa chart is, thanks though.  These type of winds can easily reach the surface in the occluded wrap-around in this system. 

[Candice]

Looks like a large area of England are going to see a swathe of gusts from 60-70mph tomorrow evening and night.

 

Good consensus now between the major models.

 

Appears the first swathe of high winds will just affect parts of the southern and south-western coastal parts of Ireland at first but the wrap-around occlusion will bring a large increase in wind-speeds elsewhere by evening.

 

That's the 925 winds Matty, not the surface winds. Gusts generally in the region 45-50mph inland, maybe a tad higher on coasts

[Man With Beard]

Those are 925 hpa winds not the surface winds, the winds on top of a mountain for example.

 

It does look very windy though with gusts of 70mph possible in coastal areas and 50mph, maybe 60mph or so inland, so gales for many especially in exposed areas.

 

 

Bearing in mind too that Ian Ferguson has tweeted about gusts up to 70mph in the Bristol Channel.

 

I just wonder if the lack of a warning is a reaction to the media sensationalism of last weekend. Perhaps the Met feel their warnings got taken over the top and now they will be a little more cautious in dishing out amber warnings, to avoid whipping up a frenzy?

[ZONE 51]

@ 0001 HRS thread title could confuse...

[nodrog]

The MetOffice on the 5 day symbol (for Blackpool) have increased the max gust at 0:00hrs from 49mph to 56mph.

[itsnowjoke]

Bearing in mind too that Ian Ferguson has tweeted about gusts up to 70mph in the Bristol Channel. I just wonder if the lack of a warning is a reaction to the media sensationalism of last weekend. Perhaps the Met feel their warnings got taken over the top and now they will be a little more cautious in dishing out amber warnings, to avoid whipping up a frenzy?

Maybe but they shouldnt hold back on there forcasts just incase people spit there dummies if their not spot on with forcasts.

[radiohead]

That's off land we're talking on land here. At present they are no warnings for wind by the met office.

Looking at the latest GFS it seems to have intensified things somewhat. Coastal regions around the south west wales and channel could have gusts around 50 to 64 mph.  This transferring to the irsih and then north sea later. North Midlands and North west England may get gusts in the lower fifites.

 

Derek Brockway tweeted 70+ mph gusts at Mumbles, severe gales along Bristol Channel and Irish Sea facing coasts (where the sea area warnings are highest), and 40-50 mph gusts inland.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Love it how the rest of the UK apart from London area including Britain's 2nd City Birmingham and the other big Northern cities are at risk of some falling trees and damage, yet no mention of it in the media or them making any effort to cover it at all? Baffling.... 

There is definitely potential for some similar weather to what occurred with St Jude this weekend, I think especially around the Cheshire Gap area and the Pennines. Pretty much 60% of England could be in the firing line. 

[Chess01]

Love it how the rest of the UK apart from London area including Britain's 2nd City Birmingham and the other big Northern cities are at risk of some falling trees and damage, yet no mention of it in the media or them making any effort to cover it at all? Baffling.... There is definitely potential for some similar weather to what occurred with St Jude this weekend, I think especially around the Cheshire Gap area and the Pennines. Pretty much 60% of England could be in the firing line.

basically where I live . Going goodison park Sunday watch everton so will be windy in Liverpool

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

basically where I live . Going goodison park Sunday watch everton so will be windy in Liverpool

Take good care mate. 

[Static Prevails]

Hoping the Pennines don't shield us from any strong winds here, I'm struggling to remember the last time we got a gust above 45mph or so in this part of the world.

[Chess01]

Take good care mate.

will do bud

[Mapantz]

Love it how the rest of the UK apart from London area including Britain's 2nd City Birmingham and the other big Northern cities are at risk of some falling trees and damage, yet no mention of it in the media or them making any effort to cover it at all? Baffling.... 

There is definitely potential for some similar weather to what occurred with St Jude this weekend, I think especially around the Cheshire Gap area and the Pennines. Pretty much 60% of England could be in the firing line. 

 

I run the risk of sounding like a broken record myself but i'll mention it again, there are no warnings out for it, therefore the media are unlikely to make a song and dance about it.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Mapantz

[Guest William Grimsley]

I run the risk of sounding like a broken record myself but i'll mention it again, there are no warnings out for it, therefore the media are unlikely to make a song and dance about it.

That is absolutely correct!

Edited November 1, 2013 by William Grimsley

[cyclonic happiness]

Have we got a name for this storm btw? 

 

50 mph+ winds across the Midlands is a major big deal. there will be alot of damage done.

[radiohead]

Have we got a name for this storm btw? 

 

50 mph+ winds across the Midlands is a major big deal. there will be alot of damage done.

 

"Friedrich"

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131101.gif

[cyclonic happiness]

"Friedrich"

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131101.gif

It's 'Frol' actually :-D

[P-M]

It's 'Frol' actually :-D

 

 

Is that not Erol?  lol I can't make it out!