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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

A concern with more storms possible. I think that the more the ground becomes saturated the more risk trees would be at risk of falling in less strong winds then if the heavy rain did not happen. And also weakened trees.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Well GFS could be interesting...

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO still going the less deep route

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Looking at the output, 60-70 mph gusts look a distinct possibility Liverpool-Manchester-Sheffield down as far S as S Midlands. Anywhere in that general swathe of England and Wales looks vulnerable to me. Obviously track and intensity are both still open to shifts.

Edited by CreweCold
Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted

Looking at the output, 60-70 mph gusts look a distinct possibility Liverpool-Manchester-Sheffield down as far S as S Midlands. Anywhere in that general swathe of England and Wales looks vulnerable to me. Obviously track and intensity are both still open to shifts.

Bring it on

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GEM looks threatening enough for these parts:

 

Posted Image

Yep GEM has a deep low, GFS has a deep low and the GME has something very deep.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy Autumn/Winter, hot and sunny Spring/Summer with thunderstorms.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted

I don't really think the models have made a firm conclusion on these coming depressions yet and I think it is highly unlikely that it will produce 60-70mph winds anywhere inland.

 

The worst bit about it though is it means that probably most firework displays won't go ahead as it will just be raining and with moderate winds.Posted Image

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

Who wants a new thread???

only if you give it a suitable tabloid frenzy title!!
Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Who wants a  new thread???

 

No, we don't need a new thread thanks :)

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I don't really think the models have made a firm conclusion on these coming depressions yet and I think it is highly unlikely that it will produce 60-70mph winds anywhere inland.

 

The worst bit about it though is it means that probably most firework displays won't go ahead as it will just be raining and with moderate winds.Posted Image

You say that the models don't have a firm handle on developments then proceed with absolute certainty nowhere inland will see a gust of 60 or 70 mph...

eh?!

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Who wants a  new thread???

 

thought you wanted a new forum? was on page 5

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I don't buy the GFS outcome of that low pressure, the fact that a yellow warning isn't even in place from the MO is a pretty good precursor to that, simply because they can put an amber warning out 4 days ahead of a potential storm coming from the SW quadrant which the models struggle with.

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

I don't buy the GFS outcome of that low pressure, the fact that a yellow warning isn't even in place from the MO is a pretty good precursor to that, simply because they can put an amber warning out 4 days ahead of a potential storm coming from the SW quadrant which the models struggle with.

Location location location if the progged storm was to hit souther areas there would be big warnings out, but this is partly because there is more risk of damage and disruption in the south due to population density etc..
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Location location location if the progged storm was to hit souther areas there would be big warnings out, but this is partly because there is more risk of damage and disruption in the south due to population density etc..

 

Let's not go down that route eh? If the GFS was considered to be the most accurate model leading up to it, there would, without any shadow of a doubt, be an early yellow warning further North, as it is, there isn't.

 

The FAX charts tell a far better story. Posted Image

  • Like 1
Guest William Grimsley
Posted

I don't really think the models have made a firm conclusion on these coming depressions yet and I think it is highly unlikely that it will produce 60-70mph winds anywhere inland.

 

The worst bit about it though is it means that probably most firework displays won't go ahead as it will just be raining and with moderate winds.Posted Image

Damn. I'm near the S coast. So, maybe wind gusts will reach 40-50 mph, here.

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Let's not go down that route eh? If the GFS was considered to be the most accurate model leading up to it, there would, without any shadow of a doubt, be an early yellow warning further North, as it is, there isn't.

 

The FAX charts tell a far better story. Posted Image

This is what it shows

Posted Image

Nothing serious showing here

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Alex Deakin just mentioned it getting 'lively' and gusts to 50-60mph so it seems to be creeping up in terms of strength.

Edited by CreweCold
Posted
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sun or snow, nothing in between.
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
Posted

Posted Image

Posted Image

Seems quite potent?

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - storms, tornadoes, snow
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Posted Image

Posted Image

Seems quite potent?

 

 

 

Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year by any means.

Edited by Cold Winter
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

This is what it shows

Posted Image

Nothing serious showing here

 

Exactly CS. There's nothing indicative to 70mph gusts further north. :)

Posted
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sun or snow, nothing in between.
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
Posted

Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year by any means.

First year I've ever looked at any sort of chart, learner here :)
Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) Elevation: 165 m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) Elevation: 165 m
Posted

Time for a new thread or at least edit the thread title

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