Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Coast]

Very wet across the south on Friday on the UKMO, GFS looks fairly wet too. Flooding problems perhaps considering the saturated ground. Plenty of uncertainly about that low as well as Saturdays. 

 

 

 

 

Back here along the coast again I see  

[bobbydog]

Exacta Weather (James Madden) Has posted a new update on his blog this is a part of the new update on his since the other stuff is off-topic

 

'The stormy conditions are also likely to become and feel more widespread in scale and distribution, than the more recent St. Jude storm that we have just experienced. Further gusts and severe gales in excess of 60-80 mph are also a possibility, especially in some exposed coastal areas. This period will therefore bring the risk of further large waves at sea/flooding issues, structural damage, and falling trees. Extra caution in consideration of travel is advisable and close attention to local weather forecasts and any forthcoming weather warnings that are issued/upgraded. This will also bring some snow across higher ground in parts of the far north for this period too'

 

Unlikely at the moment in my opinion.

 

You can read the rest of his new update 

with this link below.

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

actually he could 'back that up' by cherry picking a few recent GFS run charts. something any of us could do really.

all he is doing there is 'forecasting' the extremes of the (visible to us all) possibilities on the table.

if there are any more severe storms, he will claim he told us so. if not, who will publicly criticise him? certainly not the daily mail!

[arni]

Evening,

 

A bigger risk of a cyclogenesis event on the UK looking at GFS and UKMO.

It will be interesting to see ECMWF and the ensembles to check if the trajectory of the low confirms that describes by GFS.

 

I am dubious on the potential of the "storm" however. Are we looking at something similar to last sunday ?

[Coast]

I am dubious on the potential of the "storm" however. Are we looking at something similar to last sunday ?

 

At this stage I'd say not, but there is every chance that the models could develop this into something more or less extreme of course - as they do!

 

My gut feeling at this early point is a chiefly coastal event, max sustained 40 mph, max gusts 60mph during periods right through Saturday into Sunday.Please don't quote me later as saying that!! :lol: 

[throwoff]

It does seem this will linger for longer than Monday.

 

My worry is any trees that took a hammering Monday and the rivers that are full will take another hit and cause more damage despite it being far less powerful.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I can imagine the 12z GFS would interest some in the southwest however.

 

Mean 10 metre winds

 

That looks very good for me at least. If this chart is to be true. Then, it will be very windy, here.

Even though this is looking like another powerful storm, anything can change in the next 4 days before it hits. So, I wouldn't start getting excited until about 2 days time.

[The PIT]

Interesting little feature this Saturday is now a case of how will it develop in the next few days. 

[West is Best]

Interesting little feature this Saturday is now a case of how will it develop in the next few days. 

 

Just wondering if this is turning out to be the reverse of last week? That was over-hyped early on and then downgraded slightly whilst this one is being under-played but getting rapidly more interesting. Looks a fairly potent little number to me?

[nodrog]

Exacta Weather (James Madden) Has posted a new update on his blog this is a part of the new update on his since the other stuff is off-topic

 

'The stormy conditions are .. You can read the rest of his new update.

The website is not very professional - no logo, very adventurous forecasting and highly expensive for his opinion. No explanation to his background or current sources. I don't know if I'm the first to mention this but he's alienating himself from the general weather community. Weather is to be enjoyed as it's free, not perverted.

Remove if you so wish.

[Snowyowl9]

Just wondering if this is turning out to be the reverse of last week? That was over-hyped early on and then downgraded slightly whilst this one is being under-played but getting rapidly more interesting. Looks a fairly potent little number to me?

Seems to be heading further south each day.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

[radiohead]

ECM and UKMO GM are identical at 72 hours. A fairly tame looking 990mb low that would probably be more of a rain issue than a wind one.

 

[wimblettben]

Exacta Weather (James Madden) Has posted a new update on his blog this is a part of the new update on his since the other stuff is off-topic

 

'The stormy conditions are also likely to become and feel more widespread in scale and distribution, than the more recent St. Jude storm that we have just experienced. Further gusts and severe gales in excess of 60-80 mph are also a possibility, especially in some exposed coastal areas. This period will therefore bring the risk of further large waves at sea/flooding issues, structural damage, and falling trees. Extra caution in consideration of travel is advisable and close attention to local weather forecasts and any forthcoming weather warnings that are issued/upgraded. This will also bring some snow across higher ground in parts of the far north for this period too'

 

Unlikely at the moment in my opinion.

 

You can read the rest of his new update 

with this link below.

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

I don't know where he is getting his 70-80mph winds from!

 

To me it looks more like possible 60mph gusts along the south coast, and 40-45mph inland.

 

Nothing unusual this time around, just more normal deep depressions.

[bobbydog]

The website is not very professional - no logo, very adventurous forecasting and highly expensive for his opinion. No explanation to his background or current sources. I don't know if I'm the first to mention this but he's alienating himself from the general weather community. Weather is to be enjoyed as it's free, not perverted.

Remove if you so wish.

 

you're obviously not too familiar with the 'infamous' Mr Madden!

however, your initial observations are spot on. his wildly exaggerated 'forecasts' are well known on this forum.

 

the sad thing is, he is frequently quoted by the tabloid media (they never let the truth get in the way of a good story) and is responsible for headlines like "killer megastorm!" "100mph storms to batter britain!" "icy siberian blast with -20c to hit the UK in july!"

(ok, i made the last one up but it might as well be true!) therefore it grabs the interest of the lesser informed public, some of whom are actually paying for his forecasts. it only takes a relatively small proportion of people to do this to make him a small fortune.

 

tabloid propaganda sucks in a lot of people. hey, Adolf Hitler got a whole nation to believe he was right!..........

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Never mind weekend, Friday is looking horrendous absolute washout for Midlands, dry north and south of Midlands, expect meto to issue flood warnings for Friday

[Skullzrulerz]

I am not making any part 2 and so on to this thread so this is one part only    

On other news

 

Someone said in gasweathervids someone said there was wet snow in wales as the cold air gets mixed in...Not sure yet as waiting from the person who said it to give me the runs..

[Matty M]

CMA still bullish at developing first low a lot more than other models.

[bobbydog]

I am not making any part 2 and so on to this thread so this is one part only    

On other news

 

Someone said in gasweathervids someone said there was wet snow in wales as the cold air gets mixed in...Not sure yet as waiting from the person who said it to give me the runs..

 

you might want to re-phrase that!

 

unless they are on their way round with some under-cooked burgers.....

[radiohead]

CMA still bullish at developing first low a lot more than other models.

 

Well it's 1009mb at the moment. Got a good plot on it at 6pm thanks to some ship observations nearby. Compare that to the 5pm plot that mostly used model data without observations.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013103018&size=standard〈=en&map=eur_full&area=eur

[Matty M]

I note surface pressure is beginning to fall notably in the region around the low pressure west of the Azores.

 

Somewhat more than currently progged for this time. In a region with few observations we rely on 3 hour updates. So hours to look at the synopsis maps are 3pm/6pm/9pm/00/3am/6am etc..

 

If we examine the low at the moment we can see that a buoy/ship? to the north of the low is reporting rapidly falling pressure (-5.2hPa in previous 3 hours) with a pressure of 1013.4hPa and is reporting a Cumulonimbus which makes me believe it is a ship report. Winds are easterly @ 35 knots.

 

The centre of the low is estimated at 1009hPa.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013103018&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

--

 

The system was only estimated to reach this depth tomorrow at 12z, according to the most recent ECMWF output.

 

So is deepening ahead of this schedule.

 

 

 

Current Analysis

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Matty M

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I am not making any part 2 and so on to this thread so this is one part only    

On other news

 

Someone said in gasweathervids someone said there was wet snow in wales as the cold air gets mixed in...Not sure yet as waiting from the person who said it to give me the runs..

 

Was looking forward to the new forum for this weekend storm!!!!!!!! although not the storm its self

[Skullzrulerz]

Was looking forward to the new forum for this weekend storm!!!!!!!! although not the storm its self

It will depend.

[feb1991blizzard]

I am not making any part 2 and so on to this thread so this is one part only    

On other news

 

Someone said in gasweathervids someone said there was wet snow in wales as the cold air gets mixed in...Not sure yet as waiting from the person who said it to give me the runs..

 

 

No need to wait, a curry, a load of beer or Epson salts will do the trick.

[radiohead]

I note surface pressure is beginning to fall notably in the region around the low pressure west of the Azores.

 

Somewhat more than currently progged for this time. In a region with few observations we rely on 3 hour updates. So hours to look at the synopsis maps are 3pm/6pm/9pm/00/3am/6am etc..

 

If we examine the low at the moment we can see that a buoy/ship? to the north of the low is reporting rapidly falling pressure (-5.2hPa in previous 3 hours) with a pressure of 1013.4hPa and is reporting a Cumulonimbus which makes me believe it is a ship report. Winds are easterly @ 35 knots.

 

The centre of the low is estimated at 1009hPa.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013103018&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

A little deeper than some of the models but 12Z GFS seems to have nailed it, showing a 1010mb isobar at 6pm on Meteociel. If it goes below 1005mb before morning then will need to keep an eye on it just in case.

[Matty M]

A little deeper than some of the models but 12Z GFS seems to have nailed it, showing a 1010mb isobar at 6pm on Meteociel. If it goes below 1005mb before morning then will need to keep an eye on it just in case.

yes unlikely anything will happen but worth keeping an eye nonetheless.

 

I am most interested because the incredibly intense Jet just to the systems north.

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Matty M

[Mumbles]

Anyone here know what the weather will be like in Ash, Somerset on Saturday afternoon/evening please...family get together for bonfire, fireworks, chilli, jacket spuds, hot dogs and hot chocolate! About 30 going!