Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[radiohead]

06Z NAE has Friday's low weaker and Saturday's low a little more intense.

 

[tinybill]

06Z NAE has Friday's low weaker and Saturday's low a little more intense.

 

i think its  Saturday   the  met  worried  about

Edited October 31, 2013 by tinybill

[Coast]

Met O current forecast has two periods of higher gusts tomorrow and Saturday:

 

 

 

Both reflecting the general ideas of most models now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cobbett]

Which solution shows anything more than 50 mph gusts (and that only for south coast) on Saturday ? Not great for bonfire night but shouldn't be too troublesome apart from rain

[Coast]

XC Weather are about the same, with a peak sustained out in The Channel of 48 mph on Saturday:

 

 

Do we know what model they use?

 

 

[radiohead]

XC Weather are about the same, with a peak sustained out in The Channel of 48 mph on Saturday:

 

XC weather.jpg

 

Do we know what model they use?

 

GFS

[Summer Sun]

Latest text update from the met talks of strong winds but nothing on the scale of earlier this week

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

 

Remaining changeable with strong winds, bright spells and showery outbreaks of rain over the weekend. Persistent rain in southern Britain on Monday but drier elsewhere. Feeling cold in the wind.

[johnholmes]

XC Weather are about the same, with a peak sustained out in The Channel of 48 mph on Saturday:

 

XC weather.jpg

 

Do we know what model they use?

 

GFS

[Mapantz]

Which solution shows anything more than 50 mph gusts (and that only for south coast) on Saturday ? Not great for bonfire night but shouldn't be too troublesome apart from rain

 

I beg to differ with that.

I mentioned in the storm thread last week, that 45mph gusts had brough down trees around this area before the stronger winds had arrived. Monday night/mornings winds would have potentially weakened alot of trees that didn't fall over, and again, with soft soil, there's enough to warrant a risk of disruption. 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Mapantz

[Matty M]

Still vast uncertainty with respect to these two lows.

 

It is almost like a see-saw where one system will get the power.

 

One interesting solution postured by a GEFS member is that the two lows merge to our southwest and then track northeast.

 

There are a section of ensembles that deepen the initial low and bring it across England bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the south, in these instances the second low is usually just a minor disturbance.

 

The other large section of members don't do much with the first low but ramp up the second low as it crosses the British Isles.

 

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Matty M

[Tamara]

Essentially this is just a wet and windy weekend and enough to spoil things for people who want firework parties. But it is not a 'storm' in the real sense of the word (thankfully)

Edited October 31, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Su Campu]

The much slower forward speed of this weekend's system will mean lower speeds on its southern flank. An interesting setup though.

[Cold Winter]

As Matty M said, quite an interesting spread in the GFS ensembles, ranging from a fairly minor 985mb low to some much deeper solutions which track the low more northeast over the country. I expect the less deep 985mb-ish low will be closest to what actually happens, but a close eye needs to be kept on the weather for Saturday.

 

(Also interesting how quiet the forum is now despite some interesting weather/model watching ahead - obviously the intense media coverage got all the trolls logging on last week!)

Edited October 31, 2013 by Cold Winter

[cobbett]

I beg to differ with that.

I mentioned in the storm thread last week, that 45mph gusts had brough down trees around this area before the stronger winds had arrived. Monday night/mornings winds would have potentially weakened alot of trees that didn't fall over, and again, with soft soil, there's enough to warrant a risk of disruption. 

Yes there will be some localised issues but I just meant its not a disruptive spell of weather that's coming up (for the majority) - just standard autumnal weather !

[Tamara]

Yes there will be some localised issues but I just meant its not a disruptive spell of weather that's coming up (for the majority) - just standard autumnal weather !

Rain looks the much greater threat than wind over the coming days. Saturday looks the 'best' of the next three days or so with a window between the low pressures from the atlantic.Overall though, it sums up what an awful time of year this can be for weather and made even more depressing with the ever darker evenings. It illustrates why I think that autumn is my least favourite season of all, although winter can be as well if all it offers is this kind of thing 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[pip22]

Post Deleted.

Edited October 31, 2013 by pip22

[pip22]

Yes there will be some localised issues but I just meant its not a disruptive spell of weather that's coming up (for the majority) - just standard autumnal weather !

It will probably be a typical tropical storm warning (american term). Nothing more than that.

[Summer Sun]

Apparently we are going to see up-to 90mph gusts this weekend...............if you believe the express which I don't

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2823720

[Heisenberg]

Apparently we are going to see up-to 90mph gusts this weekend...............if you believe the express which I don't

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2823720

 

Its sad that anyone actually believes this drivell.....All they do is put panic and fear into the population...oh and sell news papers which is why they do it.

[cobbett]

Apparently we are going to see up-to 90mph gusts this weekend...............if you believe the express which I don't

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2823720

and to quote from the headline - Madden says

"And he warned that temperatures will also drop through next month rapidly turning heavy downpours to snow."

 

Lol well if that happens I'll subscribe for a year to his site

[radiohead]

Apparently we are going to see up-to 90mph gusts this weekend...............if you believe the express which I don't

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2823720

 

Hurricane force winds for the north this weekend?  Yes, if you live in the Exactaweather alternative universe.

[Dr Forinor]

Apologies if I'm out, I'm still learning. But this looks interesting?

[Summer Sun]

and to quote from the headline - Madden says

"And he warned that temperatures will also drop through next month rapidly turning heavy downpours to snow."

 

Lol well if that happens I'll subscribe for a year to his site

 

That was Jonathan Powell not Madden

 

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said that relentless gales could batter the country until the end of November. He said: “The jet stream is currently behaving like a stuck record, channelling whatever erupts out in the Atlantic right towards the UK. “So we could see a succession of ferocious and damaging storms rattling on right through to the end of November.†And he warned that temperatures will also drop through next month rapidly turning heavy downpours to snow.

[Summer Sun]

Rain warnings in the south added for Sunday and Monday

 

Issued at: 1016 on Thu 31 Oct 2013

 

Valid from: 1800 on Sun 3 Nov 2013

 

Valid to: 1200 on Mon 4 Nov 2013

 

Rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing during Monday. This additional rainfall, following recent wet weather, means that the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal zone moving across the Atlantic this weekend is expected to extend eastwards across southern UK later on Sunday before clearing away southeastwards during Monday. Associated rain is likely to be heavy at times with accumulations typically between 10 and 20 mm and locally close to 30 mm. Conditions will also become rather windy in English Channel coastal areas where gales may develop for a time during Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383523200&regionName=uk

[smithyweather]

 

 

 

 

Looks like its going to be a cold storm. If the run upgrades we could see 4 or 5c maxes in some elevated places.