Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[pward]

Yellow warning by met office for most of southern england.It will not let me put the image on my post.

Yep, yellow warnings from 12:00 on Friday until 06:00 on Saturday but before people get too excited they are for rain and not wind.

[Skullzrulerz]

This is the yellow warning info. (Below)

 

An area of low pressure currently developing over the Atlantic Ocean is likely to track close to or across southern England later Friday and early Saturday, bringing with it a spell of wet weather.

 

Rain is expected to be the main hazard associated with this depression, 15 to 30 mm rain likely quite widely (locally 40 mm) in the area marked yellow in the Alert. English Channel coastal areas will also be windy for a time with gales and gusts up to 60 miles an hour. Further inland, wind speeds are expected to be much lower.

 

Further north a separate zone of rain is expected over parts of North Wales and southern parts of northern England. Being more localised in nature there is, as yet, insufficient confidence in the location of this rain to warrant an Alert.

 

Large waves generated by this depression, and a subsequent depression crossing the UK this weekend, combined with increasing tidal heights lead to an increased risk of coastal flooding along the English Channel coast this weekend, especially in Dorset.

[TwisterGirl81]

With the caveat 'in your location' I guess? It may not have been as bad as some of the media descriptions were calling beforehand, but the loss of several lives still means it was significant for some.

 

Any kind of weather kills and whilst it is heart breaking I am here to talk about the weather as that is my hobby 

[radiohead]

A quick animated output of the 06Z for sustained wind:

 

 

If you have NW Extra, check the wind gusts on the NMM 18 (06Z), it shows it quite well.

[Mapantz]

 I'm fishing this weekend too.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Mapantz

[tinybill]

warn.png warn2.png

I'm fishing this weekend too.

not  with  that  forecast!!

[Coast]

If you have NW Extra, check the wind gusts on the NMM 18 (06Z), it shows it quite well.

 

Check and agree. Still not sure of where this one will end up, but so far it doesn't look to have the punch of Monday. Where it will land up might be more certain by Friday afternoon.

[ancientsolar]

So, 2 Lows in the Atlantic developing.. One looks set to hit Southern England on Friday .. (looks quite unstable) A day for thundery downpours perhaps.. Then another .. much deeper Low is currently on track for Saturday (also much further North)... looks quite fierce at the moment.. !! Definetly will have my eye open !  Wetterzentrale are the charts I look at btw. 

[Coast]

GFS free atmosphere for London hinting at a few unsettled days in the South?

 

[Dorsetbred]

warn.png warn2.png

I'm fishing this weekend too.

What, in the garden pond?

[wimblettben]

For many areas inland there looks to be peak gusts around 40-45mph for southern areas Saturday into Sunday.

 

There maybe some twigs snapped off and maybe some broken weak branches but thats about it.

 

It looks at the moment that if you wan't to experience any damaging winds from this then you will have to travel to the coast.

[Guest William Grimsley]

For many areas inland there looks to be peak gusts around 40-45mph for southern areas Saturday into Sunday.

 

There maybe some twigs snapped off and maybe some broken weak branches but thats about it.

 

It looks at the moment that if you wan't to experience any damaging winds from this then you will have to travel to the coast.

Yeah, if that's the case then wind gusts will reach 45 - 50 mph, here.

[johnholmes]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

the link to UK Fax charts=the best idea of what the two centres, one originating in a similar area to last weekend but not deepening as much nor quite as far north.

The second one from a more westerly point and shown by the current T+48 well out west around 50N transferring east and deepening, see T+84 with it shown just south of Shannon to the T+120 with it in the N Sea, approx just north of 55N

Edited October 30, 2013 by johnholmes

[Matty M]

Quite the difference between the GFS and NAE with regard to the low to west on Saturday

 

NAE - showing intense low to the west

 

 

GFS - Much less developed.

 

[suffolkboy_]

Bring it on and I hope it gets upgraded too!  I do wonder when the next big storm will be, I didn't think the storm at the weekend was as bad as the media were making out to be, just a slightly stronger gale than usual in Autumn....

 

Maybe not where you were but here it was by far the worst we have had in a long time! There are still trees down everywhere. Many of the pavements in ipswich are still covered in big branches and trees. My local golf club had 30 trees down and Greater Anglia trains only just have their trains running normally again after clearing 240 trees off the tracks.

[Matty M]

I can imagine the 12z GFS would interest some in the southwest however.

 

Mean 10 metre winds

 

[Coast]

Quite the difference between the GFS and NAE with regard to the low to west on Saturday

 

NAE - showing intense low to the west

 

 

GFS - Much less developed.

 

 

 

But still windy around Channel coasts:

 

 

Seems like gusts at 80 km/hr+ is a recurrent theme for the last few runs:

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Maybe not where you were but here it was by far the worst we have had in a long time! There are still trees down everywhere. Many of the pavements in ipswich are still covered in big branches and trees. My local golf club had 30 trees down and Greater Anglia trains only just have their trains running normally again after clearing 240 trees off the tracks.

 

Yes I know that the southeast were hit the worst, I can only imagine what devastation it would have caused here in the southwest with all the tree's we have....We had some trees blown over but it was mostly just branches and lots of leaves on the floor too.

 

Having said that had the storm deepended just west of Wales I can only imagine the devastation it would have caused all the way through the south of England.  When the wind started it felt like a different storm from usual, I was alseep when the worst winds hit though in Devon which I think was like 3 -4am or so...

[bobbydog]

erm...

 

[Matty M]

Amazing the difference between the UKM GM and the UKM NAE model at the same timeframe!

 

Global model down to about 1003hPa, NAE @ 988hPa.

 

 

 

 

[Matty M]

The latest UKM GM would also build my interest in the first low pressure system during Friday if i was in southern England.

 

- The main change i would note today is that the system approaching from the west is now looking like it was actually be intensifying as it approaches the British Isles rather than beginning to fill as shown in recent days.

 

So quite big changes today and i would still keep an eye on that first low. Still not satisfied its been predicted correctly.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Matty M

[radiohead]

Amazing the difference between the UKM GM and the UKM NAE model at the same timeframe!

Global model down to about 1003hPa, NAE @ 988hPa.

NAE might be getting boundary conditions from 0Z GM. We'll know after the 18Z.

[suffolkboy_]

Yes I know that the southeast were hit the worst, I can only imagine what devastation it would have caused here in the southwest with all the tree's we have....We had some trees blown over but it was mostly just branches and lots of leaves on the floor too.

 

Having said that had the storm deepended just west of Wales I can only imagine the devastation it would have caused all the way through the south of England.  When the wind started it felt like a different storm from usual, I was alseep when the worst winds hit though in Devon which I think was like 3 -4am or so...

To be honest though, if the sting jet hadn't affect us, it wouldn't have been anything exceptional. Go 20 miles north or south of here and there is next to no damage.

[Bobby]

Very wet across the south on Friday on the UKMO, GFS looks fairly wet too. Flooding problems perhaps considering the saturated ground. Plenty of uncertainly about that low as well as Saturdays. Rocky weather on the way for sure anyhow.

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Bobby

[Skullzrulerz]

Exacta Weather (James Madden) Has posted a new update on his blog this is a part of the new update on his since the other stuff is off-topic

 

'The stormy conditions are also likely to become and feel more widespread in scale and distribution, than the more recent St. Jude storm that we have just experienced. Further gusts and severe gales in excess of 60-80 mph are also a possibility, especially in some exposed coastal areas. This period will therefore bring the risk of further large waves at sea/flooding issues, structural damage, and falling trees. Extra caution in consideration of travel is advisable and close attention to local weather forecasts and any forthcoming weather warnings that are issued/upgraded. This will also bring some snow across higher ground in parts of the far north for this period too'

 

Unlikely at the moment in my opinion.

 

You can read the rest of his new update 

with this link below.

 

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html