Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

[Mapantz]

The BBC have just tweeted to say that half a months rainfall could fall across parts of southern England in the next few days. It always makes me chuckle when they say things like that, i mean, which month in particular? Because how are the public supposed to know how much rainfall falls in a month?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thursday 12PM (Today)

 

SAT 6am

 

[Sprites]

several lightning strikes in northern Scotland earlier!, could be squally thundery showers in southern areas on Saturday too, south coast looks the windiest place on Saturday.

[Coast]

The BBC have just tweeted to say that half a months rainfall could fall across parts of southern England in the next few days. It always makes me chuckle when they say things like that, i mean, which month in particular? Because how are the public supposed to know how much rainfall falls in a month?

 

I guess they are highlighting a period of intense rain in a particular area (South) as it appears on most models now at various times right through to Monday morning. My journey in through Sussex this morning demonstrated there is already quite a bit of lying water in the fields and the Cuckmere River is pretty swollen already. Add to that quite a lot of localised flooding on country roads and leaves still blocking many drains in towns, it could be an issue.

 

I know what you mean about a 'months' worth of rain though, perhaps its to give a general feeling to the public that it will be quite intense at times without getting too technical about specific amounts in mm?

Edited October 31, 2013 by Coast

[alexisj9]

Apologies if I'm out, I'm still learning. But this looks interesting?

Is that rain?

 

Not sure what this chart is, but if it's rain looks like a flooding issue.

[nodrog]

'Vantage Weather Services' to tell me there are two now? Maybe Madden and Powell send each other Dickensian Christmas cards of ye olde blizzard of chuff knows when!

 

It does seem that these troughs are moving over Norway then Siberia into the Far North over Greenland thus being picked up as a multiple generation system into the Atlantic to once again scoot our way. Any once else see this, or is that how this weather rolls anyways?

Edited October 31, 2013 by Tangerine Lion

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Apologies if I'm out, I'm still learning. But this looks interesting?

 

This is a Rain chart, the darker the colour usually indicates heavier rain, usually these charts have keys at the bottom or the side showing you the rate per hour of rain that will fall, they also usually come in 3hr intervals I think this one is gfs but don't quote me on that one 

Edited October 31, 2013 by Surrey

[Dr Forinor]

Is that rain?Not sure what this chart is, but if it's rain looks like a flooding issue.

Yes, from Wetterzentrale, precipitation chart.

[Dr Forinor]

http://m.bathchronicle.co.uk/articles/news/article/20007108

I have no idea on the quality of that website. Can anyone more experienced comment on it?

[Supacell]

Yes, from Wetterzentrale, precipitation chart.

 

The pink spots also relate to convection, so that would likely indicate a lot of the rainfall will be of a showery, convective nature.

[Matty M]

Latest NAE has a strong system approaching western Ireland at 36hrs with storm force winds along its southern flank.

 

[Matty M]

Latest NAE has sub 980hPa taking a more northerly route than in many other outputs with very windy weather for much of Ireland Saturday.

 

[johnholmes]

http://m.bathchronicle.co.uk/articles/news/article/20007108I have no idea on the quality of that website. Can anyone more experienced comment on it?

so why was a good deal of the last summer so warm and dry then?

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish on the weather this weekend, and we turned him into Dumbledore for Halloween, what more could you want!

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[johnholmes]

gordon bennett-what some folk do for either a lugh or money or both!

[Bobby]

Latest from Michael Fish on the weather this weekend, and we turned him into Dumbledore for Halloween, what more could you want!

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

 

Michael Fish as a magical Wizard, my life is complete.

[Paul]

gordon bennett-what some folk do for either a lugh or money or both!

 

He didn't do that, a wee bit of Photoshop magic did

[johnholmes]

what a relief-I may watch it then!

[Matty M]

Well GFS could be interesting...

 

[Dr Forinor]

so why was a good deal of the last summer so warm and dry then?

I assume that was aimed at the article, and not me.Wasn't too sure of it myself, that's why I thought I'd ask here.

[Mapantz]

I guess they are highlighting a period of intense rain in a particular area (South) as it appears on most models now at various times right through to Monday morning. My journey in through Sussex this morning demonstrated there is already quite a bit of lying water in the fields and the Cuckmere River is pretty swollen already. Add to that quite a lot of localised flooding on country roads and leaves still blocking many drains in towns, it could be an issue.

 

I know what you mean about a 'months' worth of rain though, perhaps its to give a general feeling to the public that it will be quite intense at times without getting too technical about specific amounts in mm?

 

I'm not too sure about other locations but i spent quite a bit of time a few years back, gathering local statistics from the MO and from friends journals as well as my own station averages, it worked out that the October average here is around 85mm, November just below that, at around 78mm. October currently stands at 138mm this year (could be a few more mm this evening)  wettest month since January.  The current model outputs do suggest rather a lot of rain to come, even over a 7 day period, but potentially 40 to 50mm falling over 3 days, that will certainly kick-start November's rainfall total.

I went for a ride earlier and you can see the rivers are brown from the water running off the fields, they're saturated!  They are also tidal here, the scenarios appearing on the models coincide with the higher tides as we head towards a new moon, i can see the causeway between here and the next town being flooded again. I'll shall get some pics if it happens.

[johnholmes]

I assume that was aimed at the article, and not me.Wasn't too sure of it myself, that's why I thought I'd ask here.

sorry Dr F it was the article I questioned not you

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS has deepened the low on the 12z slightly. Could be one to watch this.

[Dr Forinor]

sorry Dr F it was the article I questioned not you

No worries, I thought as much

[Paul]

Weather watch now issued 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=