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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/10/13

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

 

As i thought... Posted Image

 

That's not good, but much of it seems to be along the coasts again if your take the corresponding wind chart from GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

Gust chart is too small to determine the exact coverage but expect 40/50mph gusts on exposed coasts if it did pan out like that:

 

Posted Image

 

I think the theme is windy on Saturday night, but it might not be the main event of the weekend if you side with GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

I'm still thinking 60 mph max gusts along the Channel coast on Sunday night into Monday given current output.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Coast,

 

I am actually concerned about this "secondary" low feature that only a few models are picking up on.. they don't actually deepen it but if you look where the jet is and and other factors then it could easily become a nasty low, the one we are talking about I expect it to be much further south perhaps about 60-100 miles Further south..


That's not good, but much of it seems to be along the coasts again if your take the corresponding wind chart from GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

Gust chart is too small to determine the exact coverage but expect 40/50mph gusts on exposed coasts if it did pan out like that:

 

Posted Image

 

I think the theme is windy on Saturday night, but it might not be the main event of the weekend if you side with GFS:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

I'm still thinking 60 mph max gusts along the Channel coast on Sunday night into Monday given current output.

 

Thats show bf scale 6-7 across pretty much the whole south east with the cost on 8-9 if my eyes are correct which equates to 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/guide/beaufortscale.html

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

John Hammond just mentioned fairly severe weather coming up, but hopefully not as bad as Monday.

Still, interesting model watching!

Edited by Steve C
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Coast,

 

I am actually concerned about this "secondary" low feature that only a few models are picking up on.. they don't actually deepen it but if you look where the jet is and and other factors then it could easily become a nasty low, the one we are talking about I expect it to be much further south perhaps about 60-100 miles Further south..

 

I think you are right to be concerned, but of course we are still in the early, speculative stage and I'll have my attention drawn more if this looks still likely late Friday afternoon.

 

It still isn't stacking up to St Judes, but the worry would be trees and structures already weakened and then there's the rain again:

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

I think you are right to be concerned, but of course we are still in the early, speculative stage and I'll have my attention drawn more if this looks still likely late Friday afternoon.

 

It still isn't stacking up to St Judes, but the worry would be trees and structures already weakened and then there's the rain again:

 

Posted Image

 

Oh no it won't match up to St Jude, but with the amount of rain and loose ground as you say a gust of say 50mph would cause a few problems

That's the 06z run guys new one is just coming out

 

Indeed lets hope!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

That's the 06z run guys new one is just coming out

 

I don't get them until after everyone else it seems Jules, must still be on dial-up here! :lol:

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Quite heavy rain showing Friday eve on latest GFS.

post-11059-0-52526800-1383147940_thumb.p

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted (edited)

Looks similar to me..

 

its the one mid-atlantic- very different

 

12mb in fact....

Edited by bobbydog
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Pressure chart Saturday a.m.

post-11059-0-89660900-1383148078_thumb.p

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

Afternoon friends

 

Hope you all have had a good day, dry and sunny most of the day here, cool start again but no frost (which  was lucky as I got sidetracked this morning and was late leaving the house so having to scrape car windows would not have been helpful).

 

3 more early starts and then I get one lie in (looking forward to that one)

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

3 pm Saturday. Yikes!

post-11059-0-61285000-1383148268_thumb.p

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Oh yes I see, I was more looking at the one to the South West of the UK

 

however...... it then shows rapid deepening!!

 

tip of cornwall showing 60mph sustained winds!! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Midnight Saturday to Sunday. Not surprised about John Hammond's warning!

post-11059-0-63891100-1383148400_thumb.p

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Seems like The Channel is the Worlds biggest wind funnel this year:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

Not so deep on UKMO, but an upgrade from their previous run. All interesting stuff. Posted Image

Edit, that's the rainy low!

post-11059-0-39537800-1383149046_thumb.g

Edited by Steve C
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Saturday seems to be about on a par with Sunday now on this GFS run, both gusty to around 55/60 mph at times?

 

Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Not so deep on UKMO, but an upgrade from their previous run. All interesting stuff. Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image MetO 5 day transposes that to gusts up to 57mph just up the coast from me on Sunday morning, quite lively elsewhere too:

 

post-6667-0-20579700-1383149468_thumb.pn

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=map&fcTime=1383415200&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.12&lat=51.51

 

post-6667-0-99654000-1383149538_thumb.jp

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

I said this morning and this afternoon I knew Saturdays low was going to be deeper and further South KNEW IT! AND I DONT WANT IT TO BE!!!!!!!! I AM MENT TO BE TAKING MY GIRLFRIEND OUT!!

 

I do and take into account that we are still 3 days out...

 

Interesting RE bonfire night... 

 

 

Atlantic is p1553d of!


I think bonfire night is cancelled?!

 

Posted Image

 Thats for Saturday... Posted Image

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Posted Image MetO 5 day transposes that to gusts up to 57mph just up the coast from me on Sunday morning, quite lively elsewhere too:

 

Posted ImageMetO gusts Sunday 0600.png

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=map&fcTime=1383415200&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.12&lat=51.51

 

Posted Imagewig.jpg

Yes, I'd describe as very windy, but not stormy. Wouldn't take much to upgrade it though.

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