South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/10/13

[Summer of 76]

I think bonfire night is cancelled?!

 

I think even if you pointed your rockets into the wind they would probably go horizontal within a few feet and not very good for any public displays with saftey issues.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Bonfire night HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FURTHER NORTH PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Jax]

We were discussing this weekends display and current thinking is if this transpires we expect it to be called off.

 

If that does happen I will only have the storm to watch out the window and not the fireworks as well.

[Lauren]

As much as I would enjoy some interesting weather. We have already spent a fair bit on fireworks, food and booze for our party, so if it could delay itself that would be fab.

[alexisj9]

I think everybody now with the latest met warning is going....... "oh here we go again" cause I am 

At least it's not amber straight away this time, the river dour flooded with the last storm and will probably flood with this one. It sounds like the winds are not such a concern this time, fingers crossed there is no upgrade in the wind and the rain downgrades.

[Jax]

As much as I would enjoy some interesting weather. We have already spent a fair bit on fireworks, food and booze for our party, so if it could delay itself that would be fab.

can you still get indoor fireworks? we used have them when we were kids (responsible adults in charge of course)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

can you still get indoor fireworks? we used have them when we were kids (responsible adults in charge of course)

 

I remember these they are terrible

[Mesoscale]

can you still get indoor fireworks? we used have them when we were kids (responsible adults in charge of course)

 

Wow.... just wow.- - - - - - - - - - - - - -I hope this Atlantic dominance doesn't persist throughout winter. 

Edited October 30, 2013 by Mesoscale

[throwoff]

If that low keeps tracking it will probably go amber, there are a lot of trees that took a pounding Monday that will be weakened enough for some real problems if this comes through.

[blackprince]

MetO 5 day transposes that to gusts up to 57mph just up the coast from me on Sunday morning, quite lively elsewhere too:

 

MetO gusts Sunday 0600.png

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=map&fcTime=1383415200&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=-0.12&lat=51.51

 

wig.jpg

Looks like I will need an anchor.....and I am fishing from the bank

[Jax]

I remember these they are terrible

Oh, never said they were anygood (you are right they were pants really, just filled your house with smoke)

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Also... A very important thing to add is that the low on Saturday will be over us for a much longer period of time... Un like Monday where we saw about 2-3 hours of intense wind.. Although the wind may gust 45-55mph it will be over us for about 6 hours!

[alexisj9]

Pressure chart Saturday a.m.

Please say it's not going to do it again.

[Paul Ashford]

One point to note, this weekend the tide in dover is 6.8m (which is a large spring tide) as opposed to Monday when a had a 5.3m tide.

[Steve C]

Please say it's not going to do it again.

It shouldn't be so bad.

[throwoff]

It will last longer though, the worry is not so much this event but exisiting damage from before.

 

Weakened trees, full rivers, sodden ground etc.

 

A solid 6 hours with gusts over 50 could cause some disruption

[alexisj9]

One point to note, this weekend the tide in dover is 6.8m (which is a large spring tide) as opposed to Monday when a had a 5.3m tide.

We had problems with the sea height on the piers last time, guess my friend will be waiting a while to reopen his cafe on the pier.

[legrandefromage]

bloody lovely drive home across the fens from Norwich into the sunset..

[Steve C]

Here is perturbation 15 from the latest GFS (obviously cherry picked...)

[alexisj9]

Here is perturbation 15 from the latest GFS (obviously cherry picked...)

gens-15-1-78.pnggens-15-1-84.pnggens-15-1-90.png

ouch.

[Lauren]

Any idea when we will know by a good percentage whether this will hit the SE or not as I need to come up with a Plan B if fireworks can't happen.

[Guest bjaykent]

Not too sure about this weekend, more runs needed at the moment, but this is what I have been waiting to see, laughingly far off into FI but blocking starting to appear in the Atlantic.
First signs of winter I hope.

 

 

[Steve C]

Any idea when we will know by a good percentage whether this will hit the SE or not as I need to come up with a Plan B if fireworks can't happen.

Well nothing is set in stone, apart from that it'll be unsettled. Here are other model predictions for Saturday evening. ECM isn't updated yet.They all show a low to a degree, but the intensity is not the same.Here is a rainfall chart for 21:00 on Saturday from GFS.Not even rain is certain for the evening, although likely.So in answer to your question, specifics will be hard to ascertain for at least 24 hours imho. Edited October 30, 2013 by Steve C

[Steve C]

Just copied this from Exacta Weather site.

"The stormy conditions are also likely to become and feel more widespread in scale and distribution, than the more recent St. Jude storm that we have just experienced. Further gusts and severe gales in excess of 60-80 mph are also a possibility, especially in some exposed coastal areas. This period will therefore bring the risk of further large waves at sea/flooding issues, structural damage, and falling trees. Extra caution in consideration of travel is advisable and close attention to local weather forecasts and any forthcoming weather warnings that are issued/upgraded. This will also bring some snow across higher ground in parts of the far north for this period too.

The dominant conditions of largely unsettled weather and strong/severe winds is also likely to continue into November, in particular, around bonfire night. This will also bring the additional risk for some further violent storms and hurricane strength weather events throughout the first half of November. November is also likely to turn significantly and progressively colder than of late. This will allow some wintry/snow showers to develop in places, with an increased risk of more widespread snow developing across the country, especially in the second half of the month in some northern and eastern parts of the country."

Hmmm..., talk about sensationalist imho. I particularly like it references violent storms / hurricanes in the plural, in a period of a little over two weeks.  I'm astounded by the weather site tbh.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Steve C

[Snowangel-MK]

Hmmm..., talk about sensationalist imho. I particularly like it references violent storms / hurricanes in the plural, in a period of a little over two weeks.  I'm astounded by the weather site tbh.

So we can expect the press to pick up on this with some killer mega storm part two headlines soon then ... Oh dear !

Chilly out tonight ....snug as a bug in a rug here though heating is on and so are the fluffy slippers :-)