What will the weather be like in 10 years time ?

[stewfox]

Given most of us hopefully will still be around in 10 years time I wonder what peoples thoughts are

 

Will we see Global warming take off again or a continue with the 'pause' or even cooling (total lack of sun spot activity)

 

Will we see a more mixed bag regarding the CET or a general cooling, or warming. More or less annual 10c  CETs ?

 

Will there be more fixed patterns of weather , will the Jet stream wander around more ? Will we get that true beast from the East ?

 

Will the Daily Express still publish weather rubbish ?

Edited November 5, 2013 by stewfox

[Stu_London]

The only one we can be certain of is the Daily Express, provided there is room in between the house price ramping, Maddy suspect and Diana stories.

 

Much of the remainder of the question may depend on how Solar Cycle 25 pans out.

 

If we are at the start of a grand minimum and SC24 was not a one-off dud, then we might well start to see the effects of localised cooling in North America and North West Europe as was seen during the Dalton minimum some 230 years ago. It probably wont be anywhere as cold as then as we are starting from a much higher base, however we might expect severe winter weather on a more regular basis as perhaps we are becoming used to over the last 5 years, but not necessarily every winter as other factors will sometimes over-ride.

 

We might also get a few surprises (they will become less of a surprise over time) outside of the winter months along the lines of October 2008, April 2009, November 2010, March 2013.

 

Not all bad news if you don't like the cold, grand minimums are also known for short warm fine summers. In fact there were more summer months over 17C in the Dalton Minimum than there were in the last 30 years which were supposedly a warm period in recent climate histories. Summer 2013 might be a good analogue match.

 

You will notice that I have perhaps suggested some anecdotal evidence that the process I have described is already under way, however for this to continue we need SC25 to be as quiet or quieter than the current cycle

[joggs]

Approaching maunder minimum type with the government been taken for a ride with breach of human rights due to only 5% of the uk been able to afford to boil a kettle.

[J10]

Taking this in a different direction, if we had a thread like this 10 years ago, I am sure that a comment would be made saying there will be no months with a CET below 3.0c.

 

We all know how that panned out.

Edited November 5, 2013 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Partly cloudy with showers, feeling cold in the wind. .

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunny spells throughout the UK, except for Eastern coastal areas as usual 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Sunny spells throughout the UK, except for Eastern coastal areas as usual 

Depends whether you are talking about winter or summer.

 

 

Summer will be as you describe due to Northeasterlies bringing clag off the North Sea

 

Winters will be worse than that with Anticyclonic gloom lasting for weeks on end as the North Sea will have warmed a lot, and the wind farms will be sitting there idle.

[stewfox]

Can we have ten minutes for the next thread. Thanks!

 

 

Good idea

 

In the old days you would pop your head out of the window look which way the winds blowing and a have a rough idea.

 

Now days with all this computer model watching people miss if its actually snowing outside.

[Weather-history]

Well if you go back 10 years ago to November 2003, ask yourself would you expect to see these within 10 years?

The hottest month on record, July 2006

Hottest September on record, September 2006

Two of the hottest Aprils on record.

Two washout summers in 2007 and 2012

A winter like 2009-10

The remarkable cold spells of late November -December 2010

The remarkable March of 2013 and the coolest spring for years

An August that was remarkably dull, 2008

A February that was remarkably sunny, 2008

A November as wet as 2009

Just to name some.

[UV-RAY]

I expect we'll see global temps responding to a grand solar minimum and phrases such as catastrophic climate change will take on a all new meaning.

[Methuselah]

On average, worldwide: not that different from what we have today...But the UHI around WUWT's head offices will become a thing of leg-end...

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the UK has the Atlantic to help moderate any changes that we might see globally? The only fly in this ointment has been seen over the summers following 07' with flood events and wash out summers seeming to be becoming more frequent?

 

I think a lot depends on the speed of the change from predominantly negative natural drivers back into positive ones over the coming decade?. If , ten years hence, we find ourselves back in a planet driven by natural positive drivers, augmented by the level of AGW that has offset the current period of 'cold drivers', then we may well find ourselves in another period of 90's style warming.....just a bit faster and warmer than then.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Climate experinced during 1800s ....and declining

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Climate experinced during 1800s ....and declining

 

BFTP

If it wasn't for the CO₂ that's already present (and the Clean Air Acts) I'd be inclined to agree, Fred...But the globe is not the same as it was 2 centuries ago? 

[jonboy]

In ten years time we will have seen a steady decline in winter temps with some pretty harsh conditions being the norm. I expect summers to be very pleasant but short no excessive heat with the seasons being more defined. certainly not warming

[UV-RAY]

If it wasn't for the CO₂ that's already present (and the Clean Air Acts) I'd be inclined to agree, Fred...But the globe is not the same as it was 2 centuries ago? 

Would that be the same CO2 prior to fading solar output when global temps were already flatlining, if so imagine just what could be achieved with a grand solar minimum, a -PDO and a -AMO.

[itsnowjoke]

Im not sure probably a touch of frost to start clearing around 11 followed by chicken Madras for tea

[SomeLikeItHot]

I  am just waiting for the what will the weather be like in 10 minutes time thread, as I think I might be able to get that one right.

[Methuselah]

Would that be the same CO2 prior to fading solar output when global temps were already flatlining, if so imagine just what could be achieved with a grand solar minimum, a -PDO and a -AMO.

So, not only are you assuming we are about to enter a Grand Solar Minimum, you are also assuming that CO2 has lost its greenhouse effect? The very same effect that whose absence, should it not exist, would leave the Earth an ice-ball...

[Don]

Well if you go back 10 years ago to November 2003, ask yourself would you expect to see these within 10 years?The hottest month on record, July 2006Hottest September on record, September 2006Two of the hottest Aprils on record.A February that was remarkably sunny, 2008A November as wet as 2009Just to name some.

I would have perhaps expected all of the above to occur at some point.  However, I wouldn't have expected the below to happen! 

 

Two washout summers in 2007 and 2012A winter like 2009-10The remarkable cold spells of late November -December 2010The remarkable March of 2013 and the coolest spring for years

An August that was remarkably dull, 2008

 

An interesting 10 years of weather really......

[UV-RAY]

So, not only are you assuming we are about to enter a Grand Solar Minimum, you are also assuming that CO2 has lost its greenhouse effect? The very same effect that whose absence, should it not exist, would leave the Earth an ice-ball...

Lol, yes I'm doing a little "assuming" but I'm talking about the rising CO2 levels and the pause in global temps. So imagine what our climate would be like with all natural forcings in favour of cold?

[Gael_Force]

The only one we can be certain of is the Daily Express, provided there is room in between the house price ramping, Maddy suspect and Diana stories.

 

Much of the remainder of the question may depend on how Solar Cycle 25 pans out.

 

If we are at the start of a grand minimum and SC24 was not a one-off dud, then we might well start to see the effects of localised cooling in North America and North West Europe as was seen during the Dalton minimum some 230 years ago. It probably wont be anywhere as cold as then as we are starting from a much higher base, however we might expect severe winter weather on a more regular basis as perhaps we are becoming used to over the last 5 years, but not necessarily every winter as other factors will sometimes over-ride.

 

We might also get a few surprises (they will become less of a surprise over time) outside of the winter months along the lines of October 2008, April 2009, November 2010, March 2013.

 

Not all bad news if you don't like the cold, grand minimums are also known for short warm fine summers. In fact there were more summer months over 17C in the Dalton Minimum than there were in the last 30 years which were supposedly a warm period in recent climate histories. Summer 2013 might be a good analogue match.

 

You will notice that I have perhaps suggested some anecdotal evidence that the process I have described is already under way, however for this to continue we need SC25 to be as quiet or quieter than the current cycle

 

It was certainly a hot topic on some of the continental sites - large parts of Europe had a very short growing season in 2013 with the warm July and August sandwiched by a very cool and wet June and September. It was supposedly very typical of the historical records of the Dalton.

[Jax]

Prophecy said it would be hot and we will all die...

 

 

...oh wait it is an 80's future climate forecast I found.

 

Cloudy with a small chance of rain and some meatballs (with sunny spells I expect).

[Methuselah]

Lol, yes I'm doing a little "assuming" but I'm talking about the rising CO2 levels and the pause in global temps. So imagine what our climate would be like with all natural forcings in favour of cold?

Hopefully, it would give us time to prepare...

[hillbilly]

Well if you go back 10 years ago to November 2003, ask yourself would you expect to see these within 10 years?The hottest month on record, July 2006Hottest September on record, September 2006Two of the hottest Aprils on record.Two washout summers in 2007 and 2012A winter like 2009-10The remarkable cold spells of late November -December 2010The remarkable March of 2013 and the coolest spring for yearsAn August that was remarkably dull, 2008A February that was remarkably sunny, 2008A November as wet as 2009Just to name some.

Yes but you could make a similar list for any decade!