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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

gottolovethisweather

By gottolovethisweather
in Regional

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Why won't these papers actually pay money to decent weather forecasters? There are plenty of them, Matt Hugo for example?

 

Instead they have some complete donut, who 999 times out of a thousand is wrong!! The law of averages say he will get it right eventually, where do I send my CV to?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

GFS gets rid of some of the warm stuff, and the net result is this on Wednesday evening 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Surprises in store maybe.........

Edited by karlos1983
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Interesting...

 

Posted Image

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Indeed guys, models are still far from firming up on details by the looks, so it really is all to play for at this range! Although, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out as just cold rain (IMBY at least) because the matter of the fact is, it's only the 20th November!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Indeed guys, models are still far from firming up on details by the looks, so it really is all to play for at this range! Although, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out as just cold rain (IMBY at least) because the matter of the fact is, it's only the 20th November!

 

I totally agree, I'm not expecting snow, but It's nice to see all the same, especially as it's mid November. Could be a long season of Model watching ahead, I feel fatigued already....

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ARTDEMOLE Seasoned

ARTDEMOLE

Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
Posted

No doubt sleet it will be...it has to start somewhere....

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Trust the GFS to give us false hope;

post-12721-0-24247300-1384728875_thumb.j

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

I totally agree, I'm not expecting snow, but It's nice to see all the same, especially as it's mid November. Could be a long season of Model watching ahead, I feel fatigued already....

 

And it's not even winter yet!! ;) Definitely need to take a day off of looking at the models next week then, it'll do you good!

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted (edited)

Its pretty much as calm as you can get out there at the moment in terms of any wind.

 

Quite a lot of stations are showing exactly 0mph, which is something you don't see everyday for a properly exposed weather station.

 

Anyway personally I don't want there to be any snow this week as we are going to be starting to build a tower next to one of our trees that got damaged by the wind a few weeks back!

Edited by wimblettben
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Author
Posted (edited)

I don't know what it is with the model outputs over the weekend but when I attempt to find some solid guidance, it arrives during the studying of the working week's outputs, as I in fact mentioned to Mapantz a couple of weeks back, see below.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

It's interesting that you should mention the Sunday updates as I must say I largely ignore general model outputs over the weekend as in some quarters they have been said that they don't incorporate as much data. Personally, if the trend out to FI is set on Thursday or Friday, you can bet that'll be quite accurate on a broad scale right through to the beginning of the next week. For same said reason, most fluctuations in the Model outputs occur at the weekend, rather than during the week. Then of course, there are the pub runs. Posted Image

 

So based on that and the fact that some subtle differences were picked up from the ECM 12z and subsequent pub runs, even for the near-term, I would expect some further upgrades. Although gut feeling suggests these will arrive from the ramping up of the cold shown for the final week of November, but we shall see.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

It was dry and cool with a light wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 9.3°C 13:37 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 3 mph 10:14 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 0 mph 00:00 Wind Run Yesterday: 0.0 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 90° E.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Welcome to a typical November morning, its chilly with fog at the moment and not likely to improve until late evening. temp 6.7°C, humidity 98%, dew point 6.4°C.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Very happy this morning, UKMO looks good at 120 and then loses it at 144. ECM is cold all the way through the run.

I see the Express are at it again, when will they learn. That's just profiteering in my eyes. Disgusting Journalism.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

A low of 6.7c overnight. Misty and murky this morning just like all weekend.

yep, another grey, dank and thoroughly miserable start to the day......looking forward to the upcoming cooler spell, and some crisp bright mornings!

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ARTDEMOLE Seasoned

ARTDEMOLE

Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
Posted

Overcast but bright. Did see the sun not so long ago. 9.9c. Humidity 94%.Rain this afternoon...

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

Morning! Murky and damp today, 1mm of rain too. Currently 9.1C  

 

This incoming cold spell is looking less and less cold here, night time temperatures aren't even forecasted to get below freezing and daytime maxes look to be no different than what they have been during the last few days. Posted Image:

If i can get through this one without putting the heating on, that's another +1 to me and a 0 to the gas company. Posted Image

Edited by Mapantz
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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

Very happy this morning, UKMO looks good at 120 and then loses it at 144. ECM is cold all the way through the run.I see the Express are at it again, when will they learn. That's just profiteering in my eyes. Disgusting Journalism.

Well, they're improving at least it's down from a 100 days of persistent snow.

GIve 'em a few more days, they'll refine 30 days down again.

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

A surprisingly pleasant day so far with some hazy sunshine since mid morning although still largely cloudy. Currently 10.3c and awaiting the painfully slow moving cold front.

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted

I think the cold front is suppose to pass us sometime this evening is it not?

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Yes Ben, it's a narrow (perhaps 30 miles wide) band of rain which will last around 2 hours and is virtually on our doorstep now. It should rain until around 17.30 then slowly clear up overnight allowing the temperature to drop by first thing tomorrow morning.

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noonoo418 Explorer

noonoo418

Posted
  • Location: Dursley
  • Weather Preferences: 4 seasons please
  • Location: Dursley
Posted

Very happy this morning, UKMO looks good at 120 and then loses it at 144. ECM is cold all the way through the run.I see the Express are at it again, when will they learn. That's just profiteering in my eyes. Disgusting Journalism.

 

Have you seen this? The anti-express pill, a rather more lighthearted (and much closer to the truth) version of upcoming weather.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/britain-to-be-hit-by-entirely-typical-weather-201110174431

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Beast of Plympton Enthusiast

Beast of Plympton

Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
Posted

Some SNOW for me????? 

Posted Image

 

It could be that Cornwall get the first snow of the season in our area!! Now that would be something....

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