South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[Nights King]

Mrt office app now has heavy snow shoeers tuesday and light snow wednesday i wonder if it could happen?

[AWD]

Met office app now has heavy snow shoeers tuesday and light snow wednesday i wonder if it could happen?

Latest FAX chart backs up the possibility;This is likely to change still, but as a guide, the snowline looks like getting down to just 100masl at times;So all fine for you. In the heavier showers it could get pushed down further (evaporative cooling etc) so a wintry, slushy mix possible anywhere really. Edited November 16, 2013 by AWD

[Beast of Plympton]

Let's hope the lower side of Yelverton sees some too!! I've polished up the snow boots, tracked down the hats and gloves and changed the car for a 4x4, here's to a good winter for us in the SW.

I'm going away this Christmas for 2 weeks so i hope i don't miss all the excitement.

 

Lets face it, the lower side of Yelverton is still high in terms of elevation! I have to say whilst I am excited at the prospect of snow, I am just very happy this mild rubbish we have had of late is being pushed away.... Its a beautiful crisp morning, currently 0.3c with a very hard frost. a low of -1c last night. So even if the snow does not push down as far as here, that's ok by me.

 

Also, my child is finally starting to behave so time to dust of the Argos catalogue so he can start his list to Santa!

 

I would provide a word of caution on the 4x4 side! I had my big one for 6 months and quickly realised because my name is not Saddam McGeorgeBush and I do not own an oil field, I could not afford to run the thing driving 20,000 miles per year! Back to the beamer, 55 mpg, sweet....

Edited November 16, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Guest William Grimsley]

Anyone see David Braine's Pudsey Ears on Spotlight tonight? Fantastic stuff. Hehe.

Yes, his mobile rang half way through the weather forecast because he promised Pudsey that he would wear the Pudsey ears on the weather forecast. It was funny.

Well, I am no expert and we are fortunate to have people in our neck of the woods (AWD and GTLTW plus others) that know way more than I do. But a low that pushes up from the continent, dumps a load of snow, than leaves for the cold air to come over us and keep the snow there sounds pretty good! A dream set up, if you will!!

 

I am sure we will have something good this winter, I feel it in my bones!! Could be partly because I have just watched the Polar Express to show my son the value and the naughty and nice list, but none the less.... I am sure!!

 

Santa told me.... Right after he said my son needs to buck his ideas up if he wants presents this year!!

Yes, it is a dream set up. Also, I love the Polar Express it always makes me excited about Christmas and snow.

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was dry and mild with a light wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 10.3°C 11:44 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 13 mph 11:56 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 3 mph 10:56 Wind Run Yesterday: 8.6 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 358° N.

[Guest William Grimsley]

There has been another frost on the grass this morning, here. Low Temperature Today: 0.4°C 06:39.

Edited November 16, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Andy Bown]

All the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the models and wondering what may or may not happen.One thing is certain, it's the 3rd sunny and frosty morning out of the last 4 (after no previous frosts in what is still an above average Autumn) so things are gradually changing. 

[dec10snow]

Met office has me down for heavy rain at 4C on Wednesday, now that's depressing!! Let's hope it changes (likelihood is it will), but I don't want cold rain thank you!!

[Skullzrulerz]

I wonder if there will be BOOM in the MOD today.

[karlos1983]

I wonder if there will be BOOM in the MOD today.

not liking the look of the GFS short term, -4/-7 uppers with us for 24 hours from Tuesday - Wednesday morning. Concentration now for me is further down the line. Could really do with the Continent cooling down especially if we are to benefit from an easterly, which IMBY is the only way I'm going to see white stuff falling from the sky! North/North Westerlies are not good, the Dorset snow dome will take shape in those set-ups!

[Gibby]

After a frosty start here in North Somerset it's turned very grey as low level stratus has pushed South. Those still with the sun in South Somerset and Devon enjoy it 'cause it's gonna fill in soon.

 

http://90.213.16.110:8002/

[karlos1983]

I would really like my 1000th post to be on a snow day!! if it's next week and catches me by surprise, expect some really random post leading up to the event  apologies in advance

After a frosty start here in North Somerset it's turned very grey as low level stratus has pushed South. Those still with the sun in South Somerset and Devon enjoy it 'cause it's gonna fill in soon.

 

http://90.213.16.110:8002/

 

Stunning start so far on the South Coast of Dorset, not a cloud in the sky atm

 

made it down to 0.2C early this morning, nice frost.

[karlos1983]

nice pocket of -8 uppers incoming from the east!!

 

[gottolovethisweather]

 

 

karlos1983 said:

 

 

I would really like my 1000th post to be on a snow day!! if it's next week and catches me by surprise, expect some really random post leading up to the event  apologies in advance

 

Slow down a bit then. The 19th through to the 20th are a definite watch period and anything is possible, bar an Atlantic onslaught over that timeframe. This has been consistent signal from all NWP outputs for the last three to four days. The trend is most definitely our friend, if you're a coldie.

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

Finally! The first negative figures of the season!  It got down to -0.6 at 7:17am, nice & white.

 

Currently 9.2C and  once again. 

[dancing daisy]

So is Snowmageddon happening?  Ian mentioned on his twitter that anything that did fall would come to nothing.

[AWD]

So is Snowmageddon happening? Ian mentioned on his twitter that anything that did fall would come to nothing.

Which is a very sensible, realistic and favourable comment at this stage!

[Mapantz]

So is Snowmageddon happening?  Ian mentioned on his twitter that anything that did fall would come to nothing.

 

Nothing out of the ordinary. It's going to be cold, showers will be wintry in nature, especially in the North and West, if the 850hPa temps or the 0 degree isotherm is conducive for it, then maybe some of those showers could be wintry at lower levels, always favouring Western areas and higher ground of course. Also worth noting, in the heavier showers, the isotherm level can be dragged down by the precipitation, so it's not unusual to get something wintry even if it's not forecasted.

 

Beyond next week is still up in the air, personally, i think it's got a bit too hyped up, and things will water down gradually. It does look like staying on the cold side for the forseeable future though, plenty of frosts.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Mapantz

[MP-R]

Current GFS shows the unsettled part of the cold spell not lasting long with high pressure to follow - fog, frosts and crisp sunshine would ensue after midweek. I think given the relative warmth of the autumn so far and the unlikelihood of cumulative snow, that's a pretty good deal.

[AWD]

This is a good representation for Tuesday at this stage I think;

Wednesday is looking more tricky to call currently!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Low of -2.4c overnight and frosty. Now grey cold and drizzle.

[Nights King]

I'll stick to my reliable met office app for now

 

joking aside northerly's rarely produce meaningful showers for most except exposed western areas so that maps probably quite accurate AWD

 

6.8c outside today so trending down slowly.

Edited November 16, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

Only 5.3c here. Not often I'm colder than you Mullender!

[Nights King]

That is unusual!

 

Its rather cloudy and dull here at moment but still unusual i'll keep an eye on temps for next couple of days because im starting to wonder if my ageing station is as accurate these days?

 

Although my met app says 6c for now and 8c by 3pm so not far off.

Edited November 16, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

Risen to 5.9c now. Very cloudy, misty and murky though!