Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[tight isobar]

Some heavy sleet/snow 114 6 z gfs south/ southeast.!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think we're going to pick up a theme here today that HP ridging well up into the arctic won't occur.  Cold shot coming and NE to E flow looks good but I wouldn't be too surprised to see a big reload get rejected, but we're talking well into FI.  Of course what makes today more right than yesterday, well nothing, just a comment and that a possible Dec '12 occasion may arise.

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Yes, BFTP..certainly no show ARM of pressure rises past mid Greenland!! Pv looking to stay fairly intact atm..

[radiohead]

Not much difference from the 0Z by T144. High is a bit weaker and a bit further east.

 

[Weathizard]

First glance at the 6z looks fairly disappointing pressure lower over Greenland, Atlantic ridge looks very flimsy and the cold uppers are extremely limited, even to spite the fact they are improving slightly. Will definitely be cool/cold but nothing severe in my eyes. (Currently) Also dislike where the PV seems to be manoeuvring itself too...

Edited November 15, 2013 by Weathizard

[swfc]

The 6z looks less amplified imo but probably near the mark after last night.The ridging on the nh charts of the last few days ie towards greenland ete has or is looking less likely but still the initial cold - cooler shot is there .

[Snowmadsam]

Before we all get depressed by todays reality check charts lets just remember theres still plenty of chances with 4 months of potential fun to come  

 

No point in throwing all our eggs in one basket 

 

Sam  

[shaky]

06z is colder 850 wise

[radiohead]

06Z is not too bad really.

 

 

Uppers aren't great, but it is dragging some  -8 air westward.

 

[tight isobar]

Out at 174 6 z shame eastern euro not contain good 850, s but as mpg It's 6 z...

[Captain Shortwave]

This is still pretty darn solid, heights to the north/north east with low pressure near Greenland which should undercut

Showers moving into Eastern areas on a pretty cold Easterly, touch and go on marginality

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

The bottom line for me is that we go from this:

 

 

…to this in 4 days...

 

 

 

A fast switch to a meridional flow and near split vortex is surely an encouraging sign for Winter.

[radiohead]

A cold end to hi res.

 

 

It's not a "beast from the east" but -6 to -8 uppers is still pretty cold, and could always upgrade - T192 is a long way off.

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by radiohead

[Frosty.]

Let's remember on yesterday's output the pv was shredded, mashed and destroyed and today it's not so much, tomorrow it could be again..since it's all virtual at the moment.

[Catacol]

Some stunning charts in the GFS ensembles. Some nice eye candy to lift spirits?

 

 

That chart would be the beginning of another 62/63 with such a dramatic shredding of polar westerlies and energy flying out all over the place. Pity it wont happen... but then again I guess lottery winners probably feel the same at the point when they buy that golden ticket...

[Snowman.]

6Z looks to pregressive with energy

[Catacol]

The bottom line for me is that we go from this:

 

 

…to this in 4 days...

 

 

 

A fast switch to a meridional flow and near split vortex is surely an encouraging sign for Winter.

Agree big time... and my calendar says 15 November. There is some kind of disconnect in the global trop pattern at the mo with other signals, especially a below average temp in the vortex, that are indicating bog standard if not above average westerly influence. I am not sure why we are seeing such a meridional pattern - GFS in FI once again has a big ridge penetrating the arctic from the aleutians... and as long as we get this kind of ridging occuring the pattern will be anything but flat and that is great news. 

 

I've not yet read anyone give a convincing argument as to why we have such a preponderance of ridging going on - but the models are picking up on it so there is obviously a reason. Just wish I could understand what it is!

 

Where is GP when you need him... :-(

[Captain Shortwave]

A cold end to hi res.

 

 

It's not a "beast from the east" but -6 to -8 uppers is still pretty cold, and could always upgrade - T192 is a long way off.

 

It's not too bad, I'd take the Scandi high if you can get some form of cold pooling over the Finland/West Russia area which pushes towards us, the one advantage is the uppers won't moderate as much going through the continent as opposed to thousands of miles of relatively warm sea (aka northerlies). With heights there you can always retrograde the high westwards if enough energy decides to try and move eastwards from Greenland.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Catacol]

Back to work for me... but extended GFS once again has the ridging I mention above stabbing into the arctic with considerable force. Long may it continue I am beginning to revise my thoughts for winter and getting a growing feeling that it could be a good one. While the weather ultimately is pretty chaotic, there is no doubt at all that patterns and trends can maintain their impact through a season. Remember the damned azores high a couple of years ago that kept wiping out our impending easterlies over and over again? If a meridional pattern asserts itself then 1 or 2 very notable cold spells seem likely.

 

[swfc]

Whatever change is taking place in the nh and atlantic"i have no idea btw"is reaking havoc with the models past say the 162 hour mark.The strat thread isnt indicating any warming altho the pacific action is a big influence.The big swings on all models is as ever frustrating but very interesting in regard to what even the"next"run will bring!!!

[radiohead]

The mighty NAVGEM. It could be right one day, you never know.

 

[Frosty.]

That's a cold run from the Gfs 06z op considering it's still autumn for a few more weeks, some cold and very cold days with a risk of sleet and snow showers, even a risk of the showers merging into longer periods of wintry ppn and snow should accumulate in the north and on hills further south, some low ground too, frosts becoming widespread and sharp, especially over snow fields. No sign of mild weather returning until T+384 hours, another point is, any atlantic breakdown would probably bring a spell of snow before it turns back to rain...winter is arriving next week. almost 2 weeks early 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

well well just checked through all the models absolutely there is a cold spell on the way and the worst model jma its just awful second worse for cold spell longevity the ukmo and the depth of cold just not there and heights are not far of being over us which of coarse does not suggest above average it still would be slightly below after the first arctic attack its also a model that I rate very highly and the reason is simply it handles uk weather excellently.

 

but the ecm gem and nav gem even the gfs look good for colder weather but I really cant see any depth of cold to tap into its sods law that its mid November and can this pattern carry through to December so my punt is after a few days of deeper cold and unstable air flow with snow in paces this will switch to a more settled frosty cool outlook with any low heights to the south giving periods of cold wet and at times windy weather.

 

until we have a sustained long drawn ne flow or n flow then that's about as exciting as it can be beyond the first thrust of cold.

 

and as gibby has suggested in recent posts its a shame its not December jan or feb even march but its nice to see these charts there amazing if not come at the wrong time.

 

I fear come December everything will collapse and a return to the zonal average or slightly above the vortex is still ramping up and unless we get a nice split and blocking sustained without low pressure pushing over the top then maybe more excitement for December.

 

im not convinced this will lead to better in December.

[Purga]

06z is rather mild and wet for most in FI

 

BUT it's very encouraging to see the extent of Northern blocking developing and low heights going away from the Greenland area.

 

 

A long game as we move into December maybe rather than those wishing for a dramatic quick burst freeze up.

 

PS: Just to add to the above post:

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Latest EC32 maintains northern blocking or high pressure over the UK right through to the 15th of December. A distinctly 'un-zonal' pattern

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Purga

[bluearmy]

getting away from disecting each op run, having looked through naefs and ecm ens this morning, i am tempted to ramp. lets wait for a few more runs but the main themes to be taken are that the vortex relocates to siberia and begins to throw a trough into scandi whilst heights stay high to our nw. there are the first signs on the 850 spreads of a 'beast' heading sw from nw russia though it currently struggles to make inroads into the uk. finally, hints on naefs that in two weeks time we will see the atlantic pushing more forcefully into europe which promotes the chance of some late november events.  now back to worrying about if it will snow in my back garden next thursday morning at half past ten........................................ 

Edited November 15, 2013 by bluearmy